Chandler Simpson’s True Value Remains Difficult to Assess

Through April 14, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson had a .407 average and a .910 OPS, recording hits in 15 of his first 16 games of the 2026 season.

That included a nine-game hitting streak which he added to in a series-opening win over the Chicago White Sox on the 14th.

“Really staying in my approach, just being obsessed with getting on base, getting to first base so I can help dudes like Yandy, Aranda and Junior to drive me in,” Simpson said in an MLB Central interview on April 22. “Knowing my role, knowing how I have to play my game to help the team win.”

While a .400 average is virtually impossible to sustain, the most recent attempt to reach that mark coming from San Diego Padres all-time great Tony Gwynn in a strike-shortened 1994 season, Simpson showed his value at the plate in his rookie season in 2025.

He was someone who could be relied upon to get on base, and his speed — highlighted by his 100 stolen bases in 2024 between High-A Bowling Green and Double-A Montgomery — could stretch a walk into the equivalent of a double or triple after just a few pitches.

Just under two months later, Simpson’s production at the plate and on the bases has taken a nose dive from where it was to begin the season. He’s hitting just .271 with a .629 OPS, and an on-base percentage previously at .435 has dipped down to .307 — 19 points lower than where he finished at in 2025.

In the 47 games since Simpson was last hitting above the .400 mark, he’s slashed .226/.265/.271 with just seven stolen bases and a 53.8% stolen base success rate (7-for-13).

The last time that one of the fastest players in baseball, according to sprint speed, successfully stole a base was May 11, where he stole two bases against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

The last time he even attempted to steal a base was May 25 against the Baltimore Orioles, 13 games ago for him.

He’s yet to attempt a steal in eight games so far in June, and he’s been caught stealing eight times this season — which is tied for the second most in MLB — yielding just a 63.6% success rate on the bases this year.

It’s worth noting that Simpson has been playing through a thumb injury and also needed stitches on his bottom lip after sliding into second on a wild pitch on June 1 as his helmet ricocheted off the dirt into his face.

“Chandler is going to be okay,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said postgame on June 1. “He got some stitches in his lip, but he’s going to be in the lineup tomorrow as of now.”

All of this illustrates the ongoing struggles that Simpson, a contact-first player who, in today’s game, plays a rather unconventional style of baseball, is facing.

He’s someone who doesn’t have power to hit homers, having just hit his first over-the-fence home run back in spring training, and he isn’t someone who walks, with just a 5.1% walk rate in 2026. Meaning, he has to rely on hard-hit ground balls and line drives to the gaps to get on base.

While his success at the plate has diminished, his defense has dramatically improved, currently in the 87th percentile in fielding run value and 96th percentile in range with +6 outs above average in left field, one of the league leaders in that category. 

Last season, both of those values were in the 15th percentile or lower. He’s transformed himself into an elite level defender after just one offseason in the big leagues, which is one encouraging aspect of his player development.

The question now becomes: what is Simpson’s true value this season?

His defense has spoken for itself, but his hitting, currently sporting a .244 expected batting average (xBA) and .253 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), tell a completely different story.

It’s worth noting that he hit a similar slump, though much shorter, in early May last season, seeing his average dip from .318 to .246 after recording six hitless games in an eight-game stretch. But he bounced back, finishing 2025 with a .295 average.

A trip back to Triple-A Durham to recalibrate himself in May and June helped, and while being optioned isn’t as likely this year due to a lack of current outfield depth for the Rays, a recalibration of sorts is needed to help Simpson return back to his productive self on both sides of the ball.

“I feel like speed is something in the game that can get wins as well,” Simpson said in the aforementioned MLB Central interview. “The fact that I know my role and I can look in the mirror and go home every night and know that I put my best foot forward using my God-given ability, using my contact, using my speed, I just have to stay disciplined and stubborn.”