Bet, Fade, or Pass on All 30 MLB Team Win Totals for 2024

With the 2024 MLB season upon us, we look at all 30 teams win totals to bet, fade or pass on and discuss the best bets on the market.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 24: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros celebrates his grand slam homerun with Jose Altuve #27 and Kyle Tucker #30, to take a 5-3 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers, during the fifth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 24, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Before we start, we must understand one thing about betting on futures. You are tying up your money with a book for seven months, so if you are beginning to bet this year, consider not playing any futures.

If you have been betting on sports and saved enough profit, the futures market can be a tool to add to your bankroll. I picked a lean for every team’s over or under win-total; I wrote an article earlier this year. 

Below, you’ll see a similar style to that article, but things have changed. We have new additions to teams, injuries from Spring Training, and lines have moved from that time. You’ll find a lean for every team, but this time, you’ll find the bets I’m taking.

To be clear, I will predict each team but will not be betting on every single one.

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All odds are courtesy of BetMGM: When you deposit and bet $5 on any game, you get $150 back in bonus bets upon completion of the game regardless of the outcome. Click here to redeem the Bet $5, get $150 offer or use code JUSTBASEBALL.

American League

Baltimore Orioles: 90.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 89.5

There is a ton of hype around this Orioles team this year and for a good reason. They didn’t lose any key cogs to free agency, and they added one of the best pitchers on the planet in Corbin Burnes. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman have the talent to compete for MVP’s. Grayson Rodriguez showed why he’s one of the best young pitchers in the game during the second half of last season.

With hype often comes inflated numbers. Kyle Bradish, one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, has a sprain in his elbow. His timetable is unknown. Felix Bautista, one of the best closers in baseball, won’t be available for the 2024 season. This line opened at 88.5 and has since moved to 90.5. A lot of bettors are investing in the Orioles this season.

The Orioles were on the right side of one-run games last year. If you flipped every one run game for them last year, they finish 87-75.

I’m not betting against the Orioles in 2024 by any means; I’m just not investing in their overs. I thought about it at 88.5, but that number disappeared quickly. This is a lean to the under at 90.5 because I make the line 89.5, but it’s a no-bet for me. I would not be surprised at all to see them go over this number.

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Boston Red Sox: 79.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 79.5

Last year, the Red Sox win total was 78.5. They finished with 78 wins. This season, the win total is at 79.5, but heavily juiced towards the under. The number feels right because they didn’t add or subtract much this offseason.

They added Tyler O’Neil who has a ton of talent, but hasn’t really shown it since 2021. They traded away Chris Sale, but the Red Sox are hoping they have their second basemen of the future in Vaughn Grissom.

I also make this number 79.5. They were on the wrong side of one-run luck last year, and Fangraphs has them pegged for 81 wins. They’ll most likely be around this number again this season. This is a no-bet for me, but I’d have a slight lean towards the under because the rest of the division is far more talented.

Chicago White Sox: 63.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

My number: 64.5

Last year, the White Sox opened with a 84.5 win total. It was bet down to 82.5, and for good reason. 2023 was a disaster for the Chicago White Sox. They won 61 games, falling short of their projected win total by over 20 wins.

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While the White Sox looked like a dumpster on fire last season, I’m going to lean towards the over. It wasn’t long ago that the White Sox were expected to compete for the AL division crown. They’ve subtracted from last year’s team; Jake Burger, Tim Anderson, Mike Clevinger, Lucas Giolito, and Lance Lynn. Chicago still has some talent, headlined by Luis Robert and Dylan Cease.

The bullpen is a mess, and the rotation looks to be the worst it’s ever been. However, I don’t think it’s enough to garner a win total that only goes under if they lose 99+ games. It does seem like an overreaction. That said, the White Sox are not getting my money in 2024 because I expect them to finish last in this division.

Cleveland Guardians: 78.5 Wins (Bet: Over)

My number: 80.5

This line seems too low. Last year, the Guardians entered the season with an 86.5 win total. It led the division in the preseason, but they ended up finishing third in the AL Central.

The reason it’s lower than most years is they finished with 76 wins, and did basically nothing in the offseason to improve their squad.

While they didn’t add free agents or make any major trades, they are fully healthy to start the year. Triston McKenzie only logged 16 innings last season, and Bieber didn’t finish above 130.

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The rest of the rotation is filled with talented youngsters, including Tanner Bibee, who finished second in ROY voting. Gavin Williams has an electric arm and Logan Allen is the definition of solid.

This team relied on rookies at a historic level due to injuries to McKenzie and Bieber. Bibee, Williams, and Allen racked up 341 strikeouts, tied for the most by an AL rookie trio since 2000, and tied for the second-most since 1974. They also pitched a combined 349.1 innings last season, the fourth-most by an MLB rookie trio over the past 10 years.

While they didn’t add, they didn’t subtract either. I’m expecting Andres Gimenez to bounce back, maybe not to MVP form, but better than what he showed last season. Steven Kwan is also a player I expect to exceed his 100 wRC+ from last season.

They also have talented youngsters at the plate, including Bo Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. I don’t need to tell you how good Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are. It also helps that they would have gained four more wins last year if one-run games were flipped.

There is plenty of hype surrounding this division. Plenty of people are excited about the Royals and Tigers, and the Twins had a great season last year. The forgotten team here is the Guardians because there isn’t the same excitement. I feel as if this is the most balanced roster in the Central, and the value on them to rise to the top is too much to pass up.

I still make the Twins the favorites in the division, but I have the Guardians as the clear number two. I make the division odds +300 for Cleveland and the win total at 80.5.

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I put 2.2 U on the over 78 wins and I put 1.5 units on their division odds at +400. I’m very high on the Guardians this season while most appear to be tossing them to the side.

Detroit Tigers: 81.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 80.5

I’m really excited about the Tigers in 2024. If it all comes together, they could be the team that ends up winning the division. However, a lot has to go right.

Tarik Skubal could win a Cy Young with how talented he is. It’s hard to find left-handers with multiple off-speed pitches that sit 96 MPH with their fastball. The trio of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter, for lack of a better term, makes me happy.

All of them have All-Star potential. Colt Keith has a shot at the Rookie of the Year at third base, and Parker Meadows showed some potential last season. Jake Rodgers hit 21 home runs at catcher last year. They also have a bullpen that I expect to be in the upper half of the league. There is a lot to dream on here.

It’s not all roses. The rotation as a whole, makes me nervous. What does Jack Flaherty look like? Kenta Maeda hasn’t thrown 150 innings in a season since 2019. Matt Manning and Reese Olson are talented, but they haven’t produced yet. As much as I love Skubal talent, he’s never thrown over 150 innings in four seasons.

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I’m more in love with certain players than the team. It’s a pass for me at 81.5.

Houston Astros: 92.5 Wins (Bet: Over)

My number: 93.5

The Astros only won 90 games in 2023. I use the word “only” because that’s their lowest mark in a full season since 2016. The Dodgers have the best roster in baseball, but come playoff time, my pick to win the World Series is the Houston Astros.

I’ve learned my lesson on betting World Series futures before the season; the value is never enough. I’ll look to bet them in the middle of the season at a number I see value on.

This is one of the best rosters that Houston has had since they started this run in 2016. It’s many of the same offensive pieces, but a big difference is Yanier Diaz over Martin Maldonado. Chas McCormick is no longer a fourth outfielder but one of the best left-fielders in the game. Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. I implore you to find a better foursome in a lineup than that in the American League. It’s also a solid defense team, ranking 11th last year in OAA.

The rotation has some question marks, but I’m optimistic they work out. Justin Verlander is defying father time, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are great, but who steps up after them?

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I am fully in on a Hunter Brown breakout, and then they have Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr returning at some point, with Jose Urquidy and Ronel Blanco waiting in the wings.

The trio of bullpen arms at the back end is the best I’ve ever seen. Full stop. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly are all top 10 relievers in baseball. The bullpen as a whole isn’t as deep as prior years, but it’s so unbelievably dominant at the top.

Last season, the Astros opened up with a win total of 97.5, dropping two wins to 95.5. This season, they opened at 91.5. It’s too steep a drop-off for Houston; I make the line 93.5.

I bet over 91.5 wins for 2.2 U and will look to play playoff and World Series futures if I can find a good line during the season.

Kansas City Royals: 72.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 72.5

I’m not just saying this; I’m as excited to watch Royals baseball this season as any other team. Not because they’ll be better; it’s a massive year for their development moving forward, and they have some of the more talented players on the planet.

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Cole Ragans has freakish stuff. He’s been up to 101 MPH with the fastball with 20 inches of induced vertical break. He also has four off speed pitches to go along with the alien-heater. If he maintains his velocity, he could win the Cy Young.

Bobby Witt Jr signed a massive extension this off-season for a reason. He’s the new-age Trea Turner who can win a gold glove at shortstop. They also have Vinnie Pasquantino, who has the potential to be one of the best first basemen in the game. They also added reinforcements to the rotation, signing Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.

The problem for me is this team still feels like a year or two away. We can’t forget they lost 106 games last year, and if you flip every one-run game, they would have won 55. I made line 72.5, and I thought I was being optimistic. My line aligns with the market, so it’s a pass for me.

Los Angeles Angels: 71.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

My number: 72.5

I’m low on the Angels this year. If you polled 10 baseball fans, I think all ten would say the same. You lose Shohei Ohtani, and when you had him last year, you won 73 games.

They made some nice additions to the bullpen, and I don’t mind the rotation, but I’d rather cut a tree down with my mouth than invest on either side of this team. I prefer to put them in the rearview mirror to watch the other 29 teams.

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I will always root for Mike Trout, and I like Zach Neto. Sure, I’ll lean towards the under, but I have no opinion on this team. I make the line 72.5, so I see some value on the over, but I’ll refer you to the tree reference on that one. Pass.

Minnesota Twins: 85.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

My number: 84.5

The Twins are a fascinating case. They opened up with an 83.5 win total last season and finished with 87 wins. If you flipped one run games, the Twins would have won 95 games! They also made it to the ALDS against the Astros and put up a decent fight. If the Twins retained all of their talent, I’d be much more bullish than I currently am.

Losing Sonny Gray hurts badly. He finished second in Cy Young voting last season. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are a solid front three, but the depth is a tad concerning. They might be able to shoulder the load with a combination of Chris Paddack, Anthony Desclafani, and Louie Varland, but it’s a guessing game.

What they do have is an incredible bullpen. We saw how dominant they could be in the playoffs behind Jhoan Duran, and they added Justin Topa, Steven Okert, and Josh Staumont in the offseason. While the rotation depth isn’t ideal, it’s still a great pitching staff from top to bottom.

The offense is powerful. They finished third in home runs last year and every starter is projected for 12 or more home runs, with four starters projected over 20. My issue with the Twins offense is fragility. Can Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa play a full season?

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Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Alek Kirloff have all dealth with their fair share of injuries. They had two players that recorded 500 ABs last year; one was Carlos Correa, and the other was Carlos Santana, who they just acquired.

I love the talent. I expect them to make it to the playoffs, and that’s where I’ll start to invest if they are all healthy. I make the win total 84.5, and the division odds closer to +125. That would have me slightly leaning toward the under, but my baseball brain likes this team more than the numbers do. It’s a pass for me.

New York Yankees: 93.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

My number: 92.5

This Yankees team has boom or bust written all over it. Last year’s line was 93.5, and even though I’m a Yankee fan, I wrote that I leaned toward the under. It was a team with a similar amount of downside to this year’s team, but the 2024 Yankees have much more upside.

The Yankees’ season hangs in the balance of critical pieces: Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes Jr, Anthony Rizzo, DJ Lemahieu, and Marcus Stroman. All can regain form, but will they? That is the question.

I never bet on Yankee’s futures for two reasons. Number one is they are often inflated, as they are generally the most popular team to bet on. Number two is I’m a Yankee fan, so I’d prefer not to make any picks on them. For anyone wondering, I make this line 92.5, so I see one value win on the under.

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Oakland Athletics: 57 Wins (Bet: Over)

My number: 59.5

Call me crazy, but I am in on the Athletics, relative to expectation. This line is too low, and it has a lot to do with last season. The Athletics had one of the lowest win totals of all time last year at 59.5, and it was also one of the most bet unders. Bettors cashed on the A’s after only winning 50 games in 2023.

They dropped the win total by two games, even though this A’s team is better than last year. I know that’s not saying much, but the A’s have sneakily solidified their rotation, moved Mason Miller to the closer role, and the offense is better.

They added Alex Wood and Ross Stripling, who nobody really cares about, but it’s much more solid than the back end last season. Luis Medina is seeing his velocity jump in spring training, and JP Sears and Paul Blackburn are both solid arms.

Don’t sleep on Joe Doyle either. He was always known for electric stuff, but the command was never there. In the early goings of spring, the command looks fantastic.

If everything clicks for him, watch out.

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The bullpen killed the A’s last year, and while it’s still going to finish near the bottom of the league, I don’t expect it to be historically bad. Especially since they moved Mason Miller to closer, added Trevor Gott, and converted Kyle Muller into a swingman. These don’t seem groundbreaking, but it’s improvements nonetheless.

The offense also has a full year of Zach Gelof, who burst onto the scene last season. Shea Langeliers is a solid catcher. Brent Rooker and Seth Brown are good bets to hit 20 home runs each. Estuery Ruiz led the AL in stolen bases last year. There are pieces to be excited about in Oakland.

All seven projection systems I’ve examined have the A’s winning 60 games at the minimum. However, they had the same thoughts last year. The A’s bottomed out for the second year in a row and miss every projection. I see 60+ wins in the Athletics future, and I’m putting 2.2 units on their over 57 wins.

Seattle Mariners: 86.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 86.5

Here we go again. The Mariners were my dream baby last season. I had them every which way. They just scraped over the win total but did not achieve my dream of them winning the AL and the World Series.

It’s the same rotation with more experience under their belt. Love. The lineup improved even with losing Jarred Kelenic. The bullpen has a three-headed monster at the top with Gregory Santos, Matt Brash, and Andres Munoz, but the depth isn’t as good as in previous years.

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I make the line 86.5 as well. Last year, I was bullish on this Mariners team, but this year, I’ll take a backseat and see what happens. It’s a pass for me.

Tampa Bay Rays: 84.5 Wins (Bet: Over)

My Number: 86.5

We are all over the Rays this season. I’ve been doing this for 5+ years, and I’ve never encountered a team that’s so disrespected year in and year out by projection systems than the Rays. Yes, they lost Wander Franco and Tyler Glasnow.

Yes, Shane McClanahan is out for the season. Seems like the walls are crashing in, but didn’t they last season? Last year’s win total was 89.5. Is this team that much worse? I say no.

They lose players and it never really matters. The Rays are the kings of extracting value from other clubs or getting the most out of their farm system.

Zach Efflin went from a swingman to a borderline ace last year. Aaron Civale has turned into a solid arm for them. Taj Bradley still has loads of talent. Ryan Pepiot, who they got for Glasnow, has top of the rotation stuff and dominated for the Dodgers in the second half.

The rotation and the bullpen are deep, and they have more reinforcements if those guys go down, just like always. Don’t count out a return for Jeffrey Springs or Drew Rasmussen either this year.

The offense subtracts Luke Railey and Wander Franco but adds Jose Caballero and Junior Caminero. They could also add Curtis Mead or Jonathan Aranda. Do you see what I’m getting at?

It’s still a lineup with Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. That lineup finished fourth in OPS last season among 30 MLB teams. I don’t see much of a downgrade from last year.

It’s still the Rays. The Rays won 99 games last year. The last time they were under this number was in 2017. I make the win total 86.5 for the Rays, and I think they have greater than a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs. I bet 2.2 units on the over 84.5 wins and one unit on them at +130 to make the playoffs. I also make the division odds closer to +500, so I put half a unit on them to win the AL East at +700. I’ll trust the Rays until they show me otherwise.

Texas Rangers: 89.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

My number: 88.5

I want no part of the reigning 2023 World Series champions in the regular season. Not because I don’t like them, I just see zero value. It makes sense, as the former champion rarely sees value in the following season.

I’m excited about them again if they do make the playoffs. I’ll be looking to back them then. I’m worried about the pitching depth early on, but deGrom, Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle should be back at some point.

I’m more excited to bet on this team during the season than to track them over an entire season.

My line for them is 88.5, so I’m a tad lower than the market, so I’ll lean the under. However, it’s a pass for me.

Toronto Blue Jays: 86.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

My number: 85.5

Rounding out the American League is a boring answer. I don’t see any real value in this team, either. I make the line 85.5 for the Blue Jays this season, so it could warrant a bet on the under, but I’m just staying away. Similarly to the Yankees, this team has some boom or bust to it.

There are also injury concerns already. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah are dealing with early shoulder issues.

What will we get from guys like Daulton Varsho, Vladdy Jr, Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer? I like the pitching a lot, but what will Alek Manoah look like? There is too much uncertainty here, so I’m a bit lower in the market.

That said, I could see a world in which the Blue Jays win 90+ games in 2024. Put it all together, and this is a massive stay away for me, but I’ll lean towards the under.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks: 83.5 Wins (Bet: Over)

My Number: 84.5

Our biggest bet last season was the Diamondbacks over 74.5 wins. I thought they’d be in the low 80s at the end of the 2023 season, but I didn’t think they’d make a run to the World Series.

Last season, I thought the Diamondbacks’ win total would be in the 78.5 range. I put them at 85 this season, even though most projection systems think the number should be closer to 83.5 or 84.5 this season. Teams that head to the World Series are often overinflated the following season, but I think they are still underrating Arizona. This team is better than last year.

Adding Eugenio Suarez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Joc Pederson fell under the radar. These aren’t players that can carry a team, but they are both above-average players who were badly needed to fill holes.

I expect Gallen to regress a bit, but he doesn’t need to be as great as last year for this team to get back to 84 wins. Brandon Pfaadt proved in the postseason he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm with upside for more. Merrill Kelly is as steady as they come.

You throw Eduardo Rodriguez into the fold with a combination of Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry filling out the five spot? That’s one of the best rotations in the National League.

The offense lacked two things going into 2024. They needed to find a third basemen, and they needed to add some pop to a lineup that finished 22nd in home runs.

While Suarez and Pederson didn’t rack up home runs last year, they both played in incredibly pitcher-friendly ballparks. They are both boosts to a lineup looking for sluggers. They have plenty of speed and contact from guys like Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Alek Thomas.

The bullpen gets a full season from Paul Sewald, and we saw Andrew Saalfrank and Ryan Thompson step up their game in the postseason. It’s a much deeper unit than last season.

Most people are not paying attention to Arizona. What if they are the new 2014-2015 Kansas City Royals and go on a little run?

I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I only see about a win and a half of value, but it’s enough to lay the juice to win one unit on their win total. If you only have 84.5, it’s probably a pass based on value, but between you and me, I think 85+ is in their future.

Atlanta Braves: 101.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 101.5

If you know anything about baseball, you understand the Braves are really good. We somehow got a plus price on their division odds last year, and now they are -250 or higher. The win total at 101.5 is completely warranted.

I won’t stop you if you want to take the Braves over. Adding Chris Sale, Aaron Bummer, and Jared Kelenic will help this team be even better than last year’s. If you want to take one of these 100+ win totals, I would take the Braves before taking the Dodgers at 104.5.

Chicago Cubs: 84.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

My Number: 82.5

I’m not sure what to do with the Cubs. My line for them is 82.5, so I definitely lean towards the under. However, I didn’t find myself taking a position against the Cubs for a few reasons.

Pythagorean Win Expectancy estimates how many games a team should win based on runs scored and allowed. The Cubs were -7 in that metric; only the Padres and Royals finished lower in 2023. While it’s a negative number, that normally points to luck being on the Cubs side in 2024. If you flipped the result of all one run games for Chicago last year, they finish with 86 wins.

The Cubs were a playoff-caliber team for most of the season before running out of gas at the end. That’s probably one of the reasons the Cubs went out and hired Craig Counsell as their new manager. They also brought in Shota Imanaga in the off-season (upgrade over Marcus Stroman), and they brought back Cody Bellinger.

Last year’s line was 77.5 wins, which the Cubs soared over. I did move them up after last year’s performance, but the market appears to be more bullish on them than I am. I think the Cubs are solid, and my win total tells me to take the under, but it’s a pass, as I think this club has some upside if they finish strong in 2024.

Cincinnati Reds: 82.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 80.5

Similarly to the Cubs, my number is a tad lower on the Reds, but I’m not about to fade this youth machine with so many exciting players.

There is so much unknown for the Reds, which often creates even more excitement. The rotation is loaded with talent, but many of them are unproven or have dealt with injuries.

The offense is loaded with young stars, but the sophomore slump is natural. Do all of these young players step up or step back? The baseball fan in me is rooting for success, but the gambling grinch in me is saying 82.5 is a bit high. Pythagorean win projection for them last year was 77, and we see the same result if one-run games were flipped.

The baseball fan in me says over, and the numbers say under. It’s a hard pass, but I will be turning on the TV most days to watch this group hopefully soar to new heights.

Colorado Rockies: 60.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 59.5

The Rockies have a shot at the worst record in the league. They had another off-season that makes no sense. They brought in pitchers who rely on weak contact rather than strikeouts. That can work on some teams, but Colorado is not the place for that. It’s as if the front office has no idea where they play.

I make the Rockies line 59.5, so I see slight value on the under. However, I’ll be tuning into Cal Quantrill starts, and that’s about it. The Rockies are for the regular season when we bet on them against a team traveling in or fading them on the road. It’s also fun to throw in a Coors total every once in a while. There is a slight lean towards the under, but ultimately, it’s a pass.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 104.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 103.5

Similarly to the Braves, I don’t think you need my advice with the Dodgers. This is one of the highest win totals of all time, and for good reason. The Dodgers spent a billion dollars this offseason to bring in two of the worlds greatest baseball players in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Not to mention they added Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez, and James Paxton. It’s the best roster in the sport, but 104.5 is just so high. I make the line 103.5, so my number says lean towards the under, but I’d prefer to not be on the other side of the Dodgers train. They’ll probably be -200 or greater in most games this season.

They are a regular-season juggernaut with worldwide fanfare, so it’ll be rare to find value in them this season. They have three of the top five in odds for MVP. Just stay away.

Miami Marlins: 78.5 Wins (Bet: Under)

My Number: 74.5

You already know my thoughts on the Marlins. The under 78.5 wins is a five unit play for me, the biggest of the season and my life. Check out the full YouTube video on our page to see why.

Last year 76.5

Milwaukee Brewers: 76.5 Wins (Division Bet)

My Number: 78.5

The Brewers had a 79.5 win total before trading away Corbin Burnes. It dropped to 76.5, which I thought was too much adjustment. That said, I see the Brewers season going one of two ways.

Scenario Number 1: they get off to a rocky start and never gain any momentum going into the All-Star break. They start unloading key pieces like Devin Williams or Willy Adames and finish towards the bottom of the division.

Scenario Number 2: the young offensive pieces take that next step. Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Bryce Turang, Sal Frelick, and Joey Ortiz all can be above average big leaguers, but will they is the question.

The Brewers bullpen is still legit, and while the rotation is worse off than most years, this team still won 92 games last year. It was on the backs of some one-run luck, as they finished +11 in those games. At the same time, the Pythagorean win total was 90, so only two wins short of their 92-win season. There is a reason the Brewers are good in close games: they have an elite bullpen. The Marlins one run luck was simply luck.

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are enormous pieces to lose, but the Brewers give me a similar feeling to the Rays. It’s a deep team with a lot of young talent that I still think will compete in this division.

I bet the Brewers to win the NL Central at +800. I bet it because the number should be closer to +600. You probably hate it because you’re likely more excited for almost every other team in the division, but value is value, and I see it with Milwaukee.

New York Mets: 82.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 82.5

I don’t know what to do with the Mets this season. When I calculated my win total projection for them, I came away thinking this is my least confident number of any 30 MLB teams.

This is a “bridge year” for the Mets. What does that even mean? If the Mets are competitive at the deadline, will Steve Cohen want to hold pat and not make any moves? If the Mets aren’t competitive, it’s hard to fathom that the Mets would trade off impending free agents like Pete Alonso.

Factor in Kodai Senga’s health scare to start the season, and I’m confused. I like this offense a lot, mainly because I still believe in Brett Baty at third base. It was a down year in 2023, but it’s such a talented lineup that I find it hard to believe they come up short again.

The pitching staff without Senga doesn’t look special, but they have five arms that can compete daily. It’s not a rotation where I see any automatic losses. With Senga, the team rotation slots in the 14-17 range.

The bullpen gets the best closer in baseball back in Edwin Diaz. They also added two arms with upside in Shintaro Fujinami and Jorge Lopez.

I made the number 83.5 with the Mets before Senga strained his shoulder. I don’t mind the over if we hear good news from him. For now, I’m staying away.

Philadelphia Phillies: 89.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

My number: 90.5

When capping the National League, it appears as if it’s the Braves and Dodgers, then everyone else. I don’t see it this way; I would put the Phillies firmly in this conversation. The Phillies might be my World Series pick, but that doesn’t mean we hammer them in the regular season.

It’s a team that normally starts off slow, and then turns on the jets in the second half. The Phillies are often streaky during the season. They can sweep the Dodgers, then travel to Colorado and get swept by them.

I’m higher in the market on the Phillies because of the lack of weaknesses. They can withstand a long season with so much talent on the roster. Trea Turner’s first-half woes should be behind him after settling in Philly. There is no need for Kyle Schwarber to play the outfield anymore which improves the defense.

The bullpen sported some breakouts like Orion Kerkering and Jeff Hoffman. It’s a fantastic unit, as we saw in the playoffs. They also brought back Aaron Nola and extended Zack Wheeler. Everyone’s wallet is taken care of, it’s time to win.

The Phillies are -220 to make the playoffs. I don’t see them beating the Braves in this division, so I’m avoiding their division odds. I make the line on the regular season win total a win higher than the market. No real value on the regular season, but I’ll be back in come playoff time.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 74.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 74.5

I was hoping for a more exciting offseason in Pittsburgh. I understand why they didn’t shell out money for free agents based on their timeline, but I can still want something because I’m a human being with emotions.

I don’t have a problem with the offense. With Oneil Cruz set to return, it’s a balanced attack. They finished 22nd in OPS last season, but I project them to end in the 16-20 range this season.

The issue with the Pirates is the rotation. Behind Mitch Keller, there is little to be excited about on the current Major League roster. Paul Skenes coming up helps that, as do prospects like Jared Jones and Anthony Solemeto. 2025 seems like the year to start investing in the Pirates.

I also think this team will trade veterans at the deadline. They invested in one year deals for veterans looking to bounce back. Players like Rowdy Telez, Aroldis Chapman, Martin Perez, Marco Gonzales, Yasmani Grandal, and others will all be on the block if they turn in a good first half.

The future looks promising in Pittsburgh, but the window is not open yet. Pass.

San Diego Padres: 81.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

My number: 82.5

We spoke about the “one-run” rule in my Marlins video. Teams who experience large discrepancies in their win-loss record in one-run games often regress to the mean. If the Padres one-run record was flipped last year, they would have went 96-66.

Crazy, right? That’s how dysfunctional the Padres were last year. Beyond the field of play, we heard rumors about how destructive the clubhouse dynamic is all season long. I don’t know if all of them are true, but it’s clear that the Padres did not play winning ball last year. With all the talent on this roster, their coming up short was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2023 season.

Blake Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader are gone. They are trying to cut payroll after spending tons of it in the past few years. All of this bad news dropped the Padres’ win total to 81.5 after last season’s 93.5.

I really want to buy the bad news here. The Padres are still loaded with top-end talent, from Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish.

While they lost Hader, they did go out and sign Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go, both with strong pedigrees in the NPB and KBO. They also added Wandy Peralta to the fold to create an above average bullpen.

Michael King was the big piece that headed to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade. He’s a pitcher I was very high on with the Yankees, and now that he’s in a pitcher’s park behind a solid defense… watch out.

Do the Padres wake up from the 2023 nightmare or stay asleep? My number says to take the over, but I’m a scared little chicken baby.

San Francisco Giants: 81.5 Wins (Pass)

My number: 81.5

I hope Giants fans don’t yell at me, but let’s be real here. The Giants are the barometer for average MLB teams. If your favorite team is worse than the Giants, they are below average. Better? Above average. 81.5 is a perfect line.

I would have faded the Giants if they hadn’t had a solid off-season. I like the long-term pick-up of Jung-Hoo Lee a lot, and getting Matt Chapman on that contract is excellent value. Jorge Soler should be welcomed into this clubhouse with open arms after the Giants finished 19th in home runs last season.

While the offense is definitely improved, it’s still a unit that finished 26th in OPS last season.

The rotation looks like a shell of its former self. Kyle Harrison is slotted to be the two-starter with only 34.2 innings of Major League work. Logan Webb is the man, but what will Jordan Hicks look like? Beyond these three, openers will cover it.

Truthfully, the Giants are one of the teams I’ve never figured out how to cap. They win games they shouldn’t, and they lose games they shouldn’t. It’s a hard pass for me.

Last year 81.5

St. Louis Cardinals: 85.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 85.5

I was excited to jump back on the Cardinals this season after the disaster of 2023, but it appears the market is equally as high on them this year.

They should be leading the division in the win total department and the division odds. I was hoping they’d be mixed in with the Reds and the Cubs, but they aren’t.

I like the additions they made to the rotation. They aren’t sexy, but they are reliable. Kyle Gibson is ninth in Major League Baseball in innings since 2021. Miles Mikolas is cut from the same cloth as Gibson. Lance Lynn is good for 150 innings.

If his hamstring injury turns out okay, Sonny Gray will be in the 180-inning range. It’s not a rotation that wow’s anyone, but it will be durable and keep them in games.

The offense is much more talented than it showed last season. I’m really excited for the duo of Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker to make an impact. I’m really high on Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbar. Goldy and Arenado will keep doing their thing, and the rest of them are swiss army knives. It’s so well rounded offensively and defensively.

The bullpen had a heavy workload last year and they dealt to an injury to their closer, Ryan Helsely. It’s a unit that should perform better with more rest this year. I was high on them at 85.5 this year, but that’s where they are in the market. It’s a pass for me.

Washington Nationals: 66.5 Wins (Pass)

My Number: 66.5

The last team to discuss will be a boring one. Not because the Nationals are boring, but because I also have them at 66.5.

You’ll hear more analysis on a certain player when I come out with my season long props and award predictions.

The Nationals are currently trying to figure out who to build around I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joey Meneses, Jesse Winker, Joey Gallo, and potentially Lane Thomas moved at the deadline to continue to reload on prospects. It’s a fun offense that finished 21st in OPS and I expect more of the same this season.

The rotation was one of baseball’s worst last year, and while there are no new names, it’s not as bad as last year’s stats show. McKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray are both talented, and Jake Irvin is a find rotation piece.

The bullpen improved with a couple of signings, but can I sit here and tell you they won’t be gone at the deadline? I can’t.

I made the line 66.5, so I’ll pass on the Nationals for 2024.

My MLB Futures Picks

Miami Marlins Under 78.5 Wins (+100) Risk 5 Units

Oakland A’s Over 57 Wins (-110) Risk 2.2 U

Houston Astros Over 91.5 Wins (-110) Risk 2.2 U

Tampa Bay Rays Over 84.5 Wins (-110) Risk 2.2 U

Cleveland Guardians Over 78 Wins (-110) Risk 2.2 U

Aaron Judge HR Leader (+400) Risk 1.5 U

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 83.5 Wins (-115) Risk 1.15 U

Milwaukee Brewers to Win NL Central (+800) Risk 1 U

Guardians to Win AL Central (+400) Risk 1 U

Rays to Make Playoffs (+130) Risk 1 U

Rays to Win AL East (+700) Risk 0.5 U

CJ Abrams Over 37.5 Stolen Bases (-110) Risk 2.2 U

CJ Abrams Lead League in Stolen Bases (+1200) Risk 0.5 U

Kyle Tucker to Lead League in RBI’s (+2500) Risk 0.5 U