Blockbuster Trade Shows Cubs’ Faith in Top Prospect Matt Shaw

When the Chicago Cubs swung a blockbuster deal to acquire superstar Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros, it sent a message that they are ready to get over the hill and back into World Series contention.

They are a ballclub that has vastly underperformed relative to expectations in recent seasons. They haven’t reached the postseason since 2020, and they’re failed to win the NL Central in a full, non-shortened season since 2017.

But being the historic organization that the Cubs are means that fans expect more than what they’ve received in recent seasons. Especially after bringing in Craig Counsell to be their skipper on a record-breaking contract last offseason, they can no longer afford to sit in a state of mediocrity.

The Tucker trade greatly raises their expectations and overall outlook heading into the 2025 season. Not only that, but the trade also shows how much faith the organization has in their top prospect, Matt Shaw, to make an impact at the big league level next season and beyond.

Supreme Confidence in Matt Shaw

In exchange for Tucker, the Cubs traded several assets to the Astros, including RHP Hayden Wesneski, third base prospect Cam Smith, and third baseman Isaac Paredes. The departures of Smith and Paredes has extreme significance when looking at both the short-term and long-term view of Chicago’s third base position.

The Cubs acquired Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2024 trade deadline to be their starting third baseman for the foreseeable future. The 25-year-old was in the midst of the first All-Star campaign of his career, he’s under team control through the 2027 season, and he was coming off a breakout 2023 campaign in which he launched a career-high 31 homers to go with a 136 wRC+.

And yet, the Cubs were comfortable moving on from him after just 52 games in a Cubs uniform, leaving a major vacancy at a key position of offensive production at third base.

Of course, since the Cubs had a chance to get a player like Tucker, even for one season, they weren’t going to let their attachment to Paredes stand in the way of that.

Still, there’s risk in trading away your starting third baseman when you’re seemingly gearing up to make a postseason push in 2025. The Cubs only make that move if they’re comfortable with their contingency plan at the hot corner, and it appears Chicago views Shaw as the heir at the position.

The Cubs also drafted third base prospect Cam Smith, Just Baseball’s No. 44 prospect, in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft. Standing at 6-foot-3, Smith demonstrated his power right from the get-go, homering in six-straight games with Single-A Myrtle Beach before his promotion to High-A. He would eventually work his way all the way up to Double-A in a matter of weeks, where he ended the 2024 season.

Right away, Smith was flashing the tools that made him such an intriguing prospect and the potential long-term solution at third base for Chicago.

However, combine the fact that he still had a long ways to go before making it to the show, and that Shaw appears to be much more big-league ready, and it made Smith expendable. The Cubs were comfortable trading one of their top prospects at a position of need for potentially one year of a superstar because of what Shaw has shown them throughout his young career.

The path has been paved for Shaw to have an enormous role for the Cubs in 2025. While he’ll still need to show that he’s capable of playing an everyday third base at the big league level, this trade is a very telling sign of how highly they think of Shaw moving forward.

The Intrigue of Matt Shaw

It’s easy to see why the Cubs are clearing a path for Shaw, as he’s done nothing but produce since being drafted 13th overall by Chicago in the 2023 MLB Draft. After being drafted as a shortstop and spending most of his 2023 season as a middle infielder, Shaw has slowly transitioned to third base as the Cubs prepare him for his MLB debut.

He’s trended in a positive direction defensively at third base, and the Cubs clearly have confidence in his ability to play a quality hot corner in the majors. However, it’s his offensive profile that makes him such an intriguing prospect.

Shaw’s Offensive Profile

In 2023, Shaw split his time between rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A. In 38 games across the three minor league levels, Shaw slashed .357/.400/.618 to go with a .448 wOBA and a 170 wRC+.

This past season, Shaw continued to show tons of promise in more ways than one. Starting the year with Double-A Knoxville, Shaw hit .279 to go with an OPS of .841 in 371 plate appearances. He upped his walk rate substantially to 12.1%, and demonstrated his encouraging blend of speed and power, stealing 25 bases and hitting 14 homers in 86 games.

Upon his promotion to Triple-A Iowa in early August, Shaw improved his production despite facing better competition. In 35 games with Iowa, Shaw slashed .298/.395/.488 while posting an ISO of .237, which was way up from his .189 ISO in Double-A.

On top of his impressive production, the peripherals were equally as encouraging. Shaw was above-average in average exit velocity (89.3 mph), hard-hit rate (37.6%), and barrel rate (6.9%), according to Baseball Savant. He managed that all while maintaining a double-digit walk rate and limiting the strikeouts as well.

Across the two levels (121 games), Shaw hit 21 homers to go with 31 steals and ended with a 146 wRC+, all as a 22-year-old. He’s continuing to develop as a hitter, but he’s proven that he belongs on the big league roster sooner rather than later.

While he’s still very early into his professional career, he’s produced at each and every level of competition. With the Cubs’ third base position there for the taking, he appears to be on the fast track to being Chicago’s starting third baseman in 2025.

Betting on Shaw is Worth the Gamble

The Cubs haven’t won more than 84 games in a season dating back to 2018, and they’re coming off an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which they won just 83 games for the second consecutive season.

A roster shake up was necessary, and their lineup needed a superstar to help lead them back to the postseason. Having Matt Shaw waiting in the wings made some of their other coveted assets expendable, and the Cubs’ faith in Shaw allowed for them to swing a big-time trade to acquire the superstar that they needed to take that step forward.

While it’s never easy to predict how easily or how quickly a player will transition from the minor leagues to MLB, that is a gamble worth taking if you’re the Cubs.

Not only did they improve the star power on their big league roster in a huge way by acquiring Tucker, but they also created a valuable opportunity for their top prospect to be an impact player for them in 2025.

The Cubs believe he is capable of continuing his development at the major league level while this team looks to compete, and it’s clear they have the utmost confidence in Shaw becoming an impact player for them moving forward.