Can Kyle Tucker and the Cubs Agree on a Long-Term Deal?

When the Chicago Cubs made the blockbuster deal to bring in three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros, after the initial excitement from the fan base wore down a bit, thoughts turned to Tucker’s future beyond 2025.

Tucker has just one year of club control left. He’s eligible to hit free agency next offseason, and considering the 15-year, $765 million deal Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets a month ago, it’s reasonable to think he’d want to see what he’s worth on the open market.

Of course, fans want the Cubs to lock Tucker up long term. The team has interest on their side, and Tucker has kept that door open himself.

“You want players like Kyle Tucker for a long time. There’s no question,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said via Zoom on Dec. 17. “He’s at such an elite level in our game. Are you ever going to know if we’re having extension talks? No, so I wouldn’t comment on it.

“But of course, when you acquire a player like that, you want to have that player for a long time. I think that, certainly, there will be contact with his agents. We’ll have discussions. We’ll keep those internal. But yeah, I think that you always kind of look at it that way. You want good players for a long time.”

“I’m open to anything,” Tucker said via Zoom later that same day. “Whether that’s now or later, kind of just see how it goes. But in terms of contracts or anything, I feel like as long as I go out and do my job out on the field, that stuff will kind of take care of itself. My job is not to worry about all that. It’s to go out there, perform, put up numbers and try and win games, get to the playoffs and win a World Series.

“Kind of how I do things is just, the rest will take care of itself. If you have your numbers and whatnot, you can deal with the rest. But like I said, I’m open to anything and everything. I feel like there’s no harm in just listening and having some talks back and forth and see where they lead.””

The first order of business, though, is figuring out what exactly he’ll earn in 2025. As first reported by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on a deal ahead of Thursday’s arbitration filing deadline. That could mean they’re headed toward an arbitration hearing in the near future, where a panel of arbitrators would hear both arguments and either choose the figure filed by the Cubs ($15 million) or Tucker ($17.5 million).

It wouldn’t be the best look for the Cubs to take the star player they just acquired to arbitration. Many see the $2.5 million difference and wonder why the team couldn’t just meet Tucker at his filing number, especially it they want to start the relationship with some good-will geared toward helping future contract negotiations.

There are obvious layers to this situation. We don’t know what Tucker’s final asking price was. It certainly could’ve been higher than the final number filed. The Cubs wouldn’t be the first team to take a player into arbitration, either, and we’ve seen cases with much smaller differences in figures.

Let’s also not forget that filing arbitration numbers doesn’t mean there’ll be an arbitration hearing. Thursday was only the filing deadline. There’s still plenty of time for the two sides to agree on a number and avoid a hearing altogether.

The Cubs don’t really want to go to a hearing, of course. No team does. It can get messy, and teams would rather avoid them altogether. The Cubs have managed to do that since 2021 (when Ian Happ went to a hearing and won his case). So, them agreeing to a 2025 deal with Tucker before arbitration isn’t out of the question.

Even if a hearing does come, it doesn’t have to be the end of hopes he’ll stick around long term. Happ’s experience didn’t ruin his relationship with the team; he eventually signed a contract extension that runs through 2026.

Tucker isn’t Happ, obviously, but he also doesn’t have the long-standing relationship Happ has with the Cubs, considering he hasn’t even been here a month. Taking him to a hearing might not run the same risk of hurting their relationship the way it would for a player with longer, greater ties to the organization (like with Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers two years ago). It really could be taken as just another part of the business.

But whether they come to an agreement or ultimately go to arbitration, Tucker will be a Cub in 2025. That much is clear. Again, where he ends up after this season is the concern here.

Could the Cubs convince him to sign an extension before he hits free agency? What would an extension even look like?

While Tucker probably won’t reach the total Soto’s contract did, his should still be worth a ton of money.

Over his last four seasons, he’s been worth 19.1 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs). In 2024 alone, he was worth 4.2 fWAR, despite the fact he only played 78 games while missing time due to a fractured shin. Those are clear marks of a star-level player, one who’d likely command a lot if he had hit the market this winter (entering his age-28 season).

To try and put that into a dollar value, let’s look at FanGraphs’ “dollars” measure. Converting his fWAR to a dollar figure, he’s been worth an average of $38.15 million over the last four seasons. Assuming he can put up numbers in 2025 at least on par with what he’s done since 2021, you’re looking at a player whose value is close to $40 million a year over a five-year period.

Converting that average “dollars” figure over a 10-year contract — which would take him through his age-38 season — makes it worth over $380 million. And that might even be on the lower end of his market.

In the wake of Soto’s deal, The Athletic noted, “Tucker figures to command a contract of at least $400 million to $500 million.” Since bidding can lead to even loftier numbers being thrown around for a top-tier free agent, if there’s any chance of getting an extension done before the end of this upcoming season, the Cubs probably have to offer him well north of $400 million.

But that would be out of their historic comfort zone. They’ve never given out a $200 million contract. No Cub has earned an average annual value of at least $30 million. A long-term extension for Tucker would almost certainly clear both marks, and to get one signed, they might even have to pay extra. That’s not something history tells us the Cubs would do.

Until the club proves otherwise, Tucker eventually hitting free agency feels more likely than not at this point. If he can put together another stellar season in 2025, it would make sense for him to test the market.

That doesn’t eliminate the Cubs from re-signing him. Extending him before he hits free agency would be ideal (even if Hoyer won’t comment on any extension talks the sides have had or will have), but considering the package they gave up to acquire him, keeping him around long term, however it happens, should be the goal.

Again, as things look right now, Tucker is probably more likely to hit free agency than sign an extension. Regardless, money is eventually going to matter. It’s up to Hoyer and the Cubs to be willing to offer him what it’ll take to keep him in Chicago.

“It’s very difficult to acquire players of this caliber,” Hoyer said. “They’re not available often. So, I think getting a chance to bring him in, obviously, we have him under control for one year. I don’t know what the future holds, but obviously, Chicago sells itself really well. I’m excited to bring him in for this year, and we’ll see where it goes beyond that.”