The BBWAA Is Getting Better at This

This piece was initially supposed to be a list of takeaways about the 2025 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame election. However, all my takeaways came back to the same theme, one that seems to be overshadowed by negativity.

It’s true that one individual excluding Ichiro Suzuki from his ballot represents the latest of countless blunders made by the writers in the history of this process.

It’s also true that many still see, admittedly understandable, reasons to criticize the BBWAA for the way many of its members approach this process. But to continuously harp on those things is to overlook the noticeable progress that has been made in recent years.

Although there is still a lot of work to do, it’s worth noting the ways the Hall of Fame voting has gotten better throughout the 2020s.

New Trends Continue With Ichiro Suzuki’s Election

Ichiro’s case for the Hall of Fame was airtight, and the writers made that clear.

Yes, there was one writer who voted against him, but this vote was one of the closest to a full consensus in Hall of Fame history. Ichiro was the fourth player to receive over 99% of the vote. All four have done so in the last decade.

Ken Griffey Jr., Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Ichiro represent the four highest voting percentages a Hall of Famer has ever received. Before 2016, 99% had never happened. It has happened four times since:

In 1936, the writers engaged in the first voting process for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. They had 50 years’ worth of baseball to look back on to decide who the Hall of Fame-worthy players were. Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner all earned over 95% of the vote in the inaugural Hall of Fame election.

No one would reach those heights again until 1982, when Henry Aaron was elected.

Throughout history, there have been 20 players elected to the Hall of Fame with over 95% of the vote. 40% of those players have been elected over the last 11 years.

It is a growing trend for players for Hall of Famers to receive 95% of the vote. It is a more rapidly growing trend for players to reach 99%. Ichiro was a continuation of both.

The Writers Didn’t Make CC Sabathia Wait

The first-ballot election of CC Sabathia raises an interesting discourse. Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case is clear as day, but the writers have made statistically better pitchers wait.

Here are a few pitchers with comparable or arguably better careers than Sabathia. Of these four, the 2025 inductee has the highest ERA and lowest ERA+. However, he is the only one to be elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot. In fact, no one else on this list came close.

Bert Blyleven, the man who ranked 3rd on the all-time strikeout list at the time of his retirement, received just 17.5% of the vote when he first appeared on the ballot in 1998. He even got as low as 14.1% before finally being inducted in his 14th year of eligibility.

The writers looked at a pitcher with more wins than Fergie Jenkins, more strikeouts than Tom Seaver, and a lower ERA than Phil Niekro, and decided he needed to wait 14 years to see his induction.

Two years before Blyleven’s eventual induction in 2011, David Cone appeared on his first ballot. Although Cone didn’t reach milestones like 200 wins or 3,000 strikeouts, there was a strong case to be made for his induction. Unfortunately, that case was never opened.

Cone received 3.9% of the vote, falling off the ballot in just one year. Maybe Cone isn’t a Hall of Famer, but the numbers show he deserved a closer look. The writers declined to give him that look.

More recently, Mike Mussina made his debut on the ballot in 2014. He was given 20% of the vote in year one. Debuting on the same ballot was Tom Glavine, a man with 206 fewer strikeouts and a lower ERA+. Glavine was elected with 91.9% of the vote in that same year.

Maybe Glavine was the better pitcher, but did the gap between them justify a 71% difference in voting percentage?

Maybe Sabathia wasn’t the best pitcher of these four, but his election was the closest the writers have been to getting it right. Given the voting histories of guys like Blyleven, Cone and Mussina, it’s very conceivable that Sabathia would not have been inducted had he debuted on the ballot in a different era.

The Conversation Around Billy Wagner Shifted

Billy Wagner started his time on the Hall of Fame ballot with 10.5% of the vote. He finished it with 82.5% of the vote. Over the course of his time on the ballot, he got 72.5% of the electorate to change their minds about him.

During Wagner’s time on the ballot, there were plenty of arguments the writers made against him. He had only pitched 903 innings, the least of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame. He only had 422 saves, not matching up with guys like Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. In addition, he had bad postseason numbers in a small sample size. Yet, as time went on, their evaluations of Wagner changed.

Eventually, it became about what he did in those 903 innings. The 187 ERA+ and the 11.9 K/9 were pure dominance. The voters were willing to see past the arbitrary milestones he didn’t reach when the conversation shifted to what he did when he was on the mound. It took the maximum amount of time, but they did come to their senses.

Carlos Beltrán Will Headline Next Year’s Ballot

This year was the setup for a 2026 election for Carlos Beltrán. With 70.3% of the vote in year three and a weak first-year class on next year’s ballot, Beltrán will be the headliner of next year’s ballot.

Some, though few, have cited Beltrán’s alleged involvement with the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal as a reason to leave him off their ballots. It does not appear as though it will cost him a spot in Cooperstown.

His eventual induction will be key for future Astros candidates who appear on the ballot, most notably Jose Altuve. It’s been well documented that the writers don’t like voting for “cheaters,” given their recent history of preventing alleged steroid users from election. Yet, it seems this scandal doesn’t hold the same weight.

Perhaps more telling, Beltrán represents an archetype of player that has been overlooked by writers in recent years.

Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton, players with careers similar to Beltrán, both fell off the ballot in their first year of eligibility. Edmonds received 2.5% and Lofton 3.2%. Meanwhile, Beltrán debuted at 46.5% and is at Cooperstown’s doorstep two years later.

As previously mentioned with Sabathia, it’s fair to ask: Is the gap between these players really that big? Or have the voters gained a better understanding of how to evaluate these cases? It’s the latter, and Beltrán is a beneficiary of this changed way of thinking.

Would Félix Hernández Have Reached 20% in an Earlier Era?

Felix Hernandez finished his debut year on the ballot with 20.6% of the vote. That seems like a low number for someone who was perhaps the best pitcher in the sport for 10 years, but history suggests King Félix could’ve fallen off the ballot in a previous year.

Let’s take a look at another pitcher that appeared on this year’s ballot. Andy Pettitte, though he lacked the strikeouts and the peak dominance, had all the things Hernández’s Hall of Fame case is missing.

Pettitte had longevity. He won a lot of games. He won championships. On top of that, he pitched in the postseason, and, did so more than anyone else in MLB history. He and Hernández finished their careers with an identical ERA+.

Pettitte just finished his seventh election cycle as the returning candidate that had the highest gain in voting percentage. A 14.4% rise shot Pettitte all the way up to… 27.9%, just 7.1% above Hernández in year one. Pettitte debuted at just 9.9% and has since gained 18% of the vote.

King Félix had an outstanding peak. From 2005-2014, he tallied 49.6 fWAR, the most of any starting pitcher over that span by three wins. Those who watched him know how awesome he was when he was on. The problem was, that was all he had.

Once you’ve put together a Hall of Fame peak like Hernández did, you are then expected to remain good enough to stay in the league and chase the milestones. This is how CC Sabathia polished off his case. His 4.33 ERA in the last seven years of his career was enough to get him to 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts.

Hernández, on the other hand, was replacement level at best by age 31. Historically speaking, a Hall of Fame peak on its own hasn’t been enough. There’s a recent example of this:

Johan Santana, like Hernández, was once one of the best pitchers in baseball for an extended period of time. From 2002-2010, Santana trailed only Roy Halladay in fWAR, posting 44 Wins Above Replacement over those nine years. His 2.90 ERA in that stretch was the lowest among the 165 pitchers with at least 650 innings pitched.

Although Santana fell just over 700 innings short of Hernández’s career workload, he had him comfortably beat in stats like ERA, strikeout rate, and bWAR. But for the writers, it wasn’t worth a second look. Santana fell off the ballot with just 2.4% of the vote in 2018. Hernandez got close to nine times that amount seven years later.

Would Félix Hernández have stayed on the ballot if he debuted as early as seven years ago? It’s very possible he wouldn’t have. It’s even harder to imagine he’d climb to 20% if he first appeared on the ballot in a year like 2018.

The BBWAA Electorate

There’s evidence of a change of mindset within the BBWAA based on the results we’ve seen in these elections over the last few years. But is it a change of heart by the voters? Or is it a change of the voters themselves?

Between 2011 and 2025, the BBWAA shed nearly 200 voters from the process. The group of writers became a more exclusive club. It’s hard to say which writers lost their votes and what the trends were for those who handed over their voting rights.

Was it the stubborn voters who like a small hall? Or was it the more open-minded writers that try to fill all 10 spots on the ballot? It’s hard to say, but the change in tune over time might speak for itself.

Furthermore, there hasn’t just been a dramatic change in the number of voters over a decade-and-a-half span, there is a small changing of the guard each year. Throughout the 2020s, the number of voters has remained in around the same spot, 385-401 voters. Yet, with this stagnant number of ballots, it’s not the same number of writers each year.

In each year since 2021, there have been at least 13 writers that we know of sending in a ballot for the very first time. These are writers who have reached 10 years as BBWAA members, therefore becoming eligible to vote.

These first-year voters are usually very open-minded. In 2025, all 16 of the known first-year voters marked Carlos Beltrán, Ichiro and Billy Wagner on their ballots. In 2024, 88% of them voted for Todd Helton in his induction year, a higher rate than the 79.7% he was elected with.

Most notably, Scott Rolen received 13 of the 15 first-year votes in 2023. He would go on to be elected with just five votes to spare that year. This is the group that brought him over the top and granted him entry into Cooperstown.

If all these new voters are entering the pool each year, but the number of voters remains roughly the same, some others must be losing their votes. But who? It’s likely those who don’t vote the same way the newcomers do. It seems like each year, a small group of small-hall voters are replaced with people who are eager to vote for the 10 best players on the ballot. That is how you get the results we’ve been seeing.

As time goes on, this group will continue to make up a slightly larger percentage of the electorate. This could cause massive changes over time, and we’re already starting to see that now.

It’s not a perfect process, and it never will be, but we’re getting noticeably closer to a BBWAA that more accurately represents the views of most baseball fans. There is hope for the future of this process.