The Orioles Need To Attack This Window To Win It All

The Baltimore Orioles entered the 2024-25 offseason with a series of looming critical decisions to make that would determine the trajectory of the franchise. They have some of the most young talent out of any young team in the game, and their window for contention is now upon us.

Yet, the front office doesn’t seem to feel the urgency that’s needed at this stage in the rebuild.

After trading for ace Corbin Burnes, one might have thought the O’s hoped to keep him in Baltimore for the rest of his career. However, a reunion was not in the cards.

Not only that, but the team is likely going to part ways with Anthony Santander, who’s coming off of a career-high, 44-home run season. Santander has been regarded as one of the clubhouse’s leaders, and he’s had a huge influence on the younger players on the team.

Losing Burnes and Santander is significant, but the bigger issue is the lack of aggression from Orioles management at a time when they need to be more competitive. With Adley Rutschman entering his first year of arbitration and Gunnar Henderson not far behind, the time to act is now.

If Baltimore truly wants to capitalize on this young core they’ve built, the front office needs to act boldly to push this team over the top.

How the Orioles Built Their Core

After a gut-wrenching loss in the 2016 American League Wild Card game to the Toronto Blue Jays, the Baltimore Orioles decided it was time to enter a full rebuild. This rebuild was one of the more brutal ones in recent memory, as the team fell to the bottom of the AL East almost overnight.

The club would go on to produce a losing record in each of the next five seasons, losing over 100 games three times in that span. The worst was the 2018 season, in which the Orioles lost 115 games.

However, the 2018 season was also, arguably, the beginning of the team’s future. After their 115-loss campaign, they were able to officially clinch the number one pick in the 2019 MLB draft.

With this pick, they’d land Rutschman, a switch-hitting catcher who was widely regarded as the best catching prospect to enter the draft since Joe Mauer in 2001. Since he burst onto the professional scene, Rutschman has lived up to the expectations, becoming one of the Orioles’ true cornerstones.

The Orioles would also land Henderson in the second round of the 2019 draft, who has become the franchise’s other cornerstone. He is just three years into his major league career, and he’s already become one of the game’s best shortstops.

Beyond 2019, the Orioles have shown the ability to draft well every season, and it’s the reason they’ve become the American League powerhouse they are today.

The Orioles had the first overall pick another time during their rebuild, which they used to select Jackson Holliday in 2022. Since being drafted, Holliday has flown through the minor leagues, while also being regarded as the league’s top prospect for multiple seasons.

While his major league career has been underwhelming to this point, Holliday still possesses all of the tools to become one of the league’s best players. If he can do this, the Orioles would have one of the best infield combos in baseball, with all of their stars being homegrown talents.

Baltimore has also used the draft to acquire other top talents, such as promising young starter Grayson Rodriguez, 2024 All-Star Jordan Westburg, 2024 Rookie of the Year finalist Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo, and Cedric Mullins.

The club also possesses Just Baseball’s number eight prospect Samuel Basallo and number seventy-one prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Since this new core has begun to reach the major league level, the O’s have had back-to-back playoff seasons, including a division title and 101-win season in 2023. Despite injuries to many of the team’s key pieces, such as Kyle Bradish, they’ve remained a legitimate threat to take home a World Series title.

The way the front office has built such an amazing young core is something to marvel at, especially in the span of just five seasons. With this being said, the focus needs to be on what comes next for the Orioles on their road to a World Series title.

Where the Orioles Currently Stand

As I previously mentioned, the Orioles are coming off of two very good seasons, where they’ve seen themselves go from the bottom of the standings to legitimate World Series contenders. However, with the departure of Burnes and likely Santander, the team is put in a difficult place.

The Orioles ranked around the middle of the pack last year in terms of their pitching staff, as their 3.94 ERA was 14th in the league, their 96 ERA+ was 20th, and their strikeout percentage of 22.7% was 13th.

Given that the team’s pitching staff was relatively mediocre with Burnes, it’s scary to imagine what the pitching staff will end up looking like without him.

On Opening Day, the rotation will consist of Zach Eflin, Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and newly acquired NPB veteran Tomoyuki Sugano. While this rotation is far from being one of the worst in the league, the O’s still need to find another starter who can consistently hold down significant innings.

If the season began today, that fifth spot would likely belong to Trevor Rogers, who struggled mightily after being dealt to the club at the trade deadline. He was demoted after just 19 innings, in which he posted a 7.11 ERA.

With Rogers being a question mark, relying on him to immediately stand in as the team’s fifth starter is a risky route to take.

Sugano is also more of a question mark than the other pitchers available. This will be his first season playing in MLB, and he’s already in his mid-thirties. While he’s been a consistent starting pitcher in NPB, there are some uncertainties regarding how his stuff will translate.

The Orioles need to act fast to address their pitching needs before all the top options come off of the board. Top trade candidates, such as Garrett Crochet, have already found their new homes. The same can be said for the free agent market, with top arms such as Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried having signed their deals.

On the bright side, Baltimore should be less concerned about Santander leaving the club, as they were a very sound offense overall in 2024.

The Orioles finished with a team wRC+ of 115, which was tied for third in MLB. They also finished second in home runs, fourth in RBI, and fifth in wOBA.

What’s more, they have already found their replacement for Santander, signing Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal. O’Neill should replace a lot of the power that Santander brought to the table, as he hit over 30 home runs in just 113 games last season.

In addition, the Orioles decided to move their left field wall back in for next season, which should help offensive production across the board. This will especially work to the benefit of their right-handed sluggers.

Mountcastle was a 30-home run threat before the wall was moved out, and now that it’s coming back in, he could return to that level. It will also be beneficial to the club’s younger righty bats, Westburg and Mayo.

With offensive production likely to be less of a concern due to all their young talent, the addition of O’Neill, and the new ballpark dimensions, the Orioles need to shift their focus to the pitching staff moving forward.

This team possesses one of the league’s most controllable offensive cores, with Rutschman currently in his first year of arbitration and Henderson still in the pre-arbitration stage. If they want to capitalize on what they’ve built, the time to act is now.

The Front Office’s Hesitance and Why the Time to Act Is Now

Unfortunately, the Orioles’ front office hasn’t shown the sense of urgency that’s needed at this stage of their contention cycle. New owner David Rubenstein was thought to be willing to increase payroll, but general manager Mike Elias has not yet spent big on any free agents. Some have speculated that Elias himself is unwilling to spend.

For the Orioles, this is a head-scratcher, as the time to spend is right now.

They could also be more active on the trade market, as the team still has some of the most talented prospects in the league, even though many of their youngsters have already reached the major league level.

At last year’s trade deadline, rumors were circling that they were looking to acquire Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, which shows a potential willingness to explore that avenue.

With a new owner to sign the checks, this team should be looking to make more impactful moves on the free agent and trade markets. Simply put the Orioles have to be more aggressive.

The team’s young core is still in the early stages of their careers, with many players either in pre-arbitration or just beginning arbitration, meaning they remain on relatively low salaries for now.

With a young core with so much team control, the O’s cannot keep waiting to make meaningful moves. If they do, they might just let this golden opportunity slip by, and re-enter a rebuild without any rings to show for it.