Alex Bregman Needs To Be Who the Cubs Paid Him To Be

In recent years, fans of the Chicago Cubs have been itching for the front office to make a big splash offensively.

They attempted to do so in December of 2024, trading for Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros. Despite his hot start, he dealt with injuries and a decline in production in the closing months of 2025 and ended up signing a $240 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason.

This left a bad taste in the mouths of many, further increasing the pressure for Jed Hoyer to make another impact play for the 2026 offense.

After multiple consecutive years being connected to Alex Bregman as a free agent, the Cubs pulled the trigger and signed him to a five-year, $175 million contract, locking him up through the 2030 season.

The organization viewed him as a clubhouse leader, steady defender, and proven middle-of-the-order bat. However, he has not been the same guy we’ve seen in the past through the first two months of the season.

If the Cubs are going to seriously compete this year, he needs to turn things around and be the player he was paid to be.

All stats updated before play on June 4.

Making a Splash

Cubs ownership had grown notorious for their spending habits in recent years. Chicago is one of the largest markets in baseball, most years finishing in the top three in revenue. The issue became how much of that revenue was being reinvested into the roster.

The $175 million deal was the third largest in Cubs history. They agreed to no opt-outs, a full no-trade clause, and are deferring $70 million of the contract. That is almost completely uncharted territory for the club, and something they would not have done had they not fully believed in Alex Bregman’s abilities.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has not hidden the fact that he is a fan of Bregman, often complimenting his off the field leadership just as much as his on-field performance.

However, that alone is not why he was paid to be a Cub. He is a guy who’s posted a 115 wRC+ or higher in eight of 10 seasons since debuting in 2016 and has 102 career playoff games under his belt.

The front office, coaching staff, and fans had high expectations for Bregman heading into the season, and rightfully so.

Failing to Move the Needle

Through 61 games this season, Bregman has yet to fully meet the expectations that came with his arrival in Chicago.

The biggest issue with his production has been the lack of power at the plate. He has hit just five home runs through the Cubs’ first two-plus months of the season, putting him on pace for only 13 over the full year. Along with that, he owns a .356 slugging percentage and 100 wRC+, both well below the standard he’s established for the majority of his career.

Compared to the rest of the league’s third basemen, Bregman falls around the middle of the pack in most major offensive categories. While that level of production isn’t necessarily make or break for Chicago’s lineup, it falls short of what they had envisioned when handing him the third-largest contract in franchise history.

At 32 years old, it is fair to wonder whether some offensive regression was inevitable. However, Bregman’s slow start in 2026 becomes even more notable when looking at how he has performed through May in previous seasons.

	Slugging Percentage	wrc+	fWar
2017	.429	103	1.0
2018	.419	128	1.9
2019	.560	149	2.4
2021	.449	133	1.6
2022	.399	117	1.2
2023	.387	103	0.8
2024	.372	85	0.7
2025	.553	156	2.4
2026	.364	103	1.1

Up until 2023, Bregman pretty consistently provided very solid numbers through the end of the first two months of the season. More recently, though, he has struggled to open seasons, with three of his last four coming with underwhelming production early.

However, there is some hope for him to turn things around. Looking at his two most recent disappointing starts previous to this year in 2023 and 2024, he went on to post a 136 and 137 wRC+ the rest of the way in those seasons, respectively.

While there is still plenty of time for him to figure things out, the bottom line is that the Cubs need more from their star third baseman.

Getting Back to Being Bregman

In baseball, some players run into brutal stretches of bad luck, where process doesn’t meet production. In the case of Alex Bregman, it is more so underlying changes that are causing his troubles.

The disappointing production has already been established. The bigger question is what has caused it. The most glaring issue for him is really a combination of multiple different things.

First of all, Bregman has always been an elite contact hitter with elite plate discipline. That has complemented his ability to pull the ball in the air at a high rate throughout his career. Bregman has never posted top-of-the-line average exit velocities or hard-hit rates, usually hovering around league average in those metrics.

That is why hitting the ball at good launch angles is so important for him to succeed. This season he is running a 41.1% ground-ball rate — the highest of his career and only the second time he’s eclipsed 40%. His pull-air rate is still very high, but the problem is he’s had difficulty doing so with authority.

His chase, whiff, and strikeout rates have slightly regressed from 2025, but not enough to be the driving factor behind this slump. For the version of Bregman the Cubs signed to reappear, he needs to get back to driving the ball in the air with authority instead of beating it into the ground.

Signs of Life

As of late, things have begun to turn around for Bregman. Not in any huge breakout way, but the average, slug, and batted-ball profile are all trending in the right direction.

Over his last 13 games, he is batting .278 with a 110 wRC+ and really encouraging batted-ball numbers. His ground-ball rate has plummeted, sitting at 28.9% over that stretch. To go with that, he is sporting a 28.9% line-drive rate that is seventh highest in baseball.

Even more recently, the extra-base hits have started to increase, with a pair of doubles and a home run over his last eight. That is good for a .429 slugging percentage over that short span.

The quality of contact hasn’t fully caught up just yet, but he’s never been dependent on that. If he can continue improving his launch angles while getting back around league average quality of contact, the Cubs may finally start seeing the version of Alex Bregman that they expected when they signed him.