Draft Takeaways From Regional Weekend
This piece isn't about the shocking upsets and parity from regional weekend, but rather the most attention-grabbing draft takeaways.
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We are five weeks away from the Draft, and with that comes one of the more exciting times of the year. NCAA Regionals have just wrapped up, and as we’ve crept through May and into June, the draft boards have become more defined. It’s go time.
While I spent the majority of my weekend focused on the Chapel Hill Regional, I made sure to keep tabs on the other 15 regionals underway across the country. This piece won’t be about the shocking upsets and parity, but rather the noteworthy draft takeaways that grabbed my attention.
Here are seven takeaways from Regional Play.
Vahn Lackey Has Closed the Gap With Roch Cholowsky
We’ve talked about it before, but Roch Cholowsky has held serve at the top of our boards all cycle. However, the ascension of Vahn Lackey has been incredible, and it looks like he’s inching closer to the top spot.
Lackey put up video game numbers over the last month of the season. Following the conclusion of the Wake Forest series, Lackey went 32-for-63 (.507) with eight home runs, an OPS just south of 1.600, and a 10:14 K:BB ratio. He is punishing the opposition’s mistakes with thunderous results, and his higher exit velocities have been impressive. It’s also something scouts wanted to see more of.
Lackey’s pairing of hit and power, mixed in with his defensive skills, paints an obscenely good picture. He has the chance to be a franchise-altering backstop. The gap between him and Cholowsky shrank, and to some, he has likely usurped the latter. That said, the discourse about Roch Cholowsky has been overblown, at least in my personal opinion.
Roch hasn’t been bad in the same time frame as Lackey, going 20-for-65 with four home runs, an OPS of .924, and a K:BB ratio of 8:12. Yes, those numbers pale in comparison, but it’s not like Roch has fallen off a cliff. He’s been consistent, while Lackey has been hotter than the sun’s surface. That’s been the biggest difference.
Of course, you’ll get differing opinions around the industry about positional valuation. Both play premium positions on the diamond, and each board you see publicly will align with their respective philosophies. There’s no wrong answer, and there is a fascinating discussion to be had between the two. For me, Lackey hasn’t usurped Cholowsky, but it’s now a stone’s throw between them.
Big Draft Bats Have Three-Home Run Games
Power was on display in a big way during the opening games of regional play, and there were four separate three-home run showings across the country. Three of them involved prevalent draft prospects in this year’s class, all of whom have Day 1 potential.
We’ll start with Alex Hernandez, who has shown some struggles in his sophomore campaign after earning the ACC Freshman of the Year honor a year ago. Hernandez’s long swing has been exploited, and his whiff rates against secondary offerings have trended in the wrong direction. That said, he has always profiled as a power-first bat, and that power is still loud. Hernandez’s first tank was to the pull side off a hanging slider, while the next two were to the backside gap off heaters, something that Hernandez loves doing.
Next up is Cincinnati backstop Jack Natili, who has put together one of the quieter 20-home run campaigns. He’s another power-over-hit bat with serious thump, though his plays to every inch of the field. All three tanks were to his pull side, and it was his third (!) time doing this in a game this season. Not once, not twice, but three times. There is swing-and-miss to his profile, but that’s to be expected from a power-oriented backstop who will stick there with really good arm strength.
Lastly, and likely the most polarizing of the three, is Andrew Williamson. The UCF outfielder has a swing that will draw differing opinions with a big hand hitch, but it adds whip and power to his profile. Despite worries about how the swing plays, Williamson has held his own against better opponents, and his power has grown throughout the year. Like Natili, all three bombs were to his pull side, and all came off different pitch types.
For all three, these games helped their stock in big ways, as a large audience attended each game. All three bats should hear their names called on Day 1 of the draft, especially with it being four rounds in total. If not, they’ll be called very early on Day 2.
Cal Poly Gets the Spotlight They Deserve
During a recent appearance on the Just Baseball Show, I mentioned that Cal Poly had a chance to be a tough out in the Los Angeles Regional. Sounds like they heard me loud and clear, as they pitched brilliantly in all three games and outscored their opponents 25-5.
Cal Poly has an underrated pitching staff. The starting trio of Josh Volmerding, Carson Turnquist, and Griffin Naess turned in quality starts, and Nick Bonn has become a stalwart at the backend of games. It was a truly impressive performance to send them to their first Super Regional in school history. Turnquist and Bonn are the premium draft names here.
Turnquist has had a lengthy collegiate journey, beginning at Oklahoma. Now a senior, he is pitching his best baseball at the perfect time, as he’s gone into the sixth inning in five of his last six outings and allowed no more than four runs in that stretch. A physical monster on the bump, Turnquist sits in the mid-90s with great fastball quality from a lower slot.
Bonn has had a similar journey to Turnquist, though he’s made more stops to date. He has pitched at Pepperdine and Dallas Baptist before making his way to San Luis Obispo, where he’s found new life. Bonn pitches with a funky delivery, sinking deep into his back leg and driving himself down the mound with loud arm speed. While it’s unorthodox, it’s extremely deceptive, and Bonn has touched triple digits this season with a hellacious sweeper in the low-80s.
They’re not the only prospects on this team, though. Ryan Tayman, the team’s backstop, has elevated his game to another tier down the stretch, and his performance in Los Angeles was one of the best in the country. After spending two years at Cal, he transferred to Cal Poly for more playing time, and he’s parlayed that into a Big West Co-Player of the Year and a Regional MVP honor. He’s a powerful bat with defensive upside behind the dish.
All three prospects are gaining traction, and at least two of them will be featured on our upcoming Top 250 list.
Taylor Rabe‘s Ascension Continues
One of the biggest pitching risers in this year’s cycle, Taylor Rabe has become an important piece to Ole Miss’ postseason hopes. In May, Rabe displayed his talent with back-to-back outings with double-digit strikeouts, and his start against Nebraska was just as impressive. Despite not pitching in two weeks, Rabe struck out nine and walked two across six innings of one-run ball.
An imposing presence on the bump, Rabe possesses a mix of premium velocity and outstanding command, a rare duo in today’s game. It’s a deceptive delivery, as he hides the ball very well, and his ability to repeat it with ease stands out and allows him to pummel the strike zone. To date, Rabe has walked just ten batters all season long, a truly impressive feat across a large sample size.
It’s a deep arsenal with powerful stuff. He holds his mid-90s velocity very well, and he’s been up to 99 MPH this spring with modest fastball shape. That said, the pure velocity and ability to command it help him miss bats. His upper-80s cutter has been his most successful secondary to date, and it’s a powerful pitch that hitters struggle to adjust to. His mid-80s breaking ball isn’t spun loudly, but it’s effective with two-plane break. He kills spin well on a firm cambio, too.
Rabe’s ascension into the top two rounds has been extraordinary to watch as an outsider, and most believe he’ll be a Top 50 pick when the ink dries on his contract. There are warts, but the track record in SEC play is too good to ignore.
Tyson LeBlanc Puts Cherry on Top of Breakout Season
Dan Fitzgerald has built a powerhouse in Lawrence, and it’s mostly come from the DII and JUCO ranks. Tyson LeBlanc is a perfect example of that, and there’s an argument that he’s the biggest riser on draft boards this spring.
LeBlanc torched the baseball at LSU-Eunice, and now, under Fitzgerald’s tutelage, LeBlanc has totaled 24 home runs while playing stellar defense at a keystone position. In their regional against Northeastern and Arkansas, he tallied three home runs and went 5-for-11 against quality pitching, which included fellow draft prospect Hunter Dietz. It was the cherry on top of a brilliant season.
While there’s some aggression at the plate, LeBlanc has sound swing decisions and inflicts damage extremely well. He rarely whiffs inside the zone, and the power plays to both sides of the field thanks to a swing that’s tuned to lifting the baseball. Tie in impressive actions in the field and you’ve got a recipe for a Day 1 draft pick. That’s exactly where LeBlanc sits at this moment.
There’s a very good chance that LeBlanc is taken within the top 60 picks, and that might be selling his talent short. He’s an extremely good player deserving of a big payday.
Adam Agresti and the Johnnies Are Fun
This year’s 4 seeds have put on a stellar showing, and two of them will be playing for a place in Omaha this weekend. The Johnnies are one of them, and Adam Agresti put his name squarely on the map with an unreal performance in Tallahassee.
The Most Outstanding Player of the regional, Agresti went 3-for-11, but two of his hits went over the centerfield fence, and he recorded five walks on the weekend, whiffing on just two pitches in the process. Most importantly, he did not strike out once. For a bat who seldom faced premium arms, he was unfazed against Bryson Moore and John Abraham, who are both draft prospects in their own right.
It’s big-time power from Agresti, who has recorded 33 extra-base hits across 58 games this season. He has made stout jumps in his pure contact skills, and while there’s aggression in his approach, his ability to lift and launch the baseball is impressive. We’ll see what happens with his draft stock, but a big performance on a big stage like this doesn’t go unnoticed by front offices and scouts.
Deiten Has Gotten His LaChance
Ignoring my wilted humor, Deiten Lachance has been on an incredible tear during the latter half of the season. Since April 9th, he has clubbed 14 home runs and posted an OPS north of 1.200, and his performance in Atlanta was a big spark for a monumental upset of Georgia Tech through the loser’s bracket. He went 7-for-22 with two home runs, both of which had enormous effects on the regional.
Much like Fitzgerald at Kansas, Skip Johnson is not afraid to dip his toes in the JUCO ranks. That’s where he snatched Lachance from, among other big names in the Sooners’ lineup. The McLennan product didn’t get a real chance at the beginning of the season, as he was splitting time with Brendan Brock, but the aforementioned second half has put himself into legitimate draft territory.
He’s a big slugger with plenty of physicality at the dish. He’s uber-aggressive and comes with swing-and-miss, but when he can generate leverage, he hammers the baseball with authority. It’s an admittedly weird swing, but he’s made it work, and the raw power has taken center stage. He’s got a strong arm behind the dish, as well. The Quebec native is expected to go within the top five rounds in this year’s draft as a result.
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