2025 MLB Draft Scouting Report – LHP Jamie Arnold
The Florida State Seminoles' ace Jamie Arnold is pitching like the early favorite to be taken as the top pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.
Primer: As we inch ever closer to July 13th, I’ll start writing up individual scouting reports for prospects in the 2025 and 2026 draft classes. These reports will be incorporated into our draft board (currently sits at 200 players) and include insight from live looks mixed in with season data to help classify each player with grades.
Each report will consist of tool/pitch grades, future value, film, and honest critique/development ideas for the future.
Prospect Name: Jamie Arnold
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP)
School: Florida State
Height/Weight: 6’1/192
Bat/Throw: L/L
Age on Draft Day: 21 years, 3 months
Dates Seen: 4/26/2024, 5/21/2024, 5/24/2024, 6/26/2024, 7/2/2024, 4/12/2025
Body: Lean frame with proportionate strength throughout. Some strength gains to his lower half from 2024 to 2025; chest/shoulders are filled out. Close to a finished product, projection-wise.
Mechanics: Repeatable, rhythmic delivery with little to no effort utilized. Lengthy arm swing behind the back, manages to get arm “on time” at foot strike.
Generates above-average extension numbers down the hill with an extremely low slot and a release height that hovers around 4.5 feet off the ground. Creates a wide angle to dish with crossfire. Sinks into his back leg very well.
Fastball: Throws two fastballs, a sinker and a traditional four-seam. Arnold has peaked at 97 MPH in live looks, though he’s thrown a 98 MPH bolt in 2025. Routinely sits in the 91-96 MPH band, holding velocity well throughout his outings.
Arnold’s sinker is a gnarly offering, generating 18-20 inches of running life with minimal vertical carry. Will utilize it to garner called strikes before going to a four-seam to get whiffs upstairs. Four-seam gets more run than carry on average due to slot/release, but he’s produced upwards of 17 inches of carry from ~54 inches off the ground, which is very impressive.
Arnold’s flat approach angle allows the offering to play above its velocity, as well. There has been regression in fastball success in 2025, as a downtick in command has led to Arnold struggling to get lefties to whiff/chase at the rates he posted in 2024.
However, things have trended in the right direction over the past couple of weeks. Arnold’s fastball has a future plus grade given the metrics at hand.
GRADE: 60
Slider: Primarily throws sweeper, will occasionally mix in a firmer cutter. Sweeper is a true plus offering with up to eighteen inches of sweep at its best, flashing little to no vertical break.
Arnold will land the sweeper for strikes consistently, and the pitch is great at inducing chases/whiffs against both lefties and righties. The pitch possesses sharp bite, and his command of the offering is sublime. The sweeper has a chance to be the best breaking ball in this class. Cutter hasn’t been too big of a factor in his arsenal, only being thrown a handful of times. GRADE: 60
Change: The change-up was seldom used in 2024, but Arnold has refined this offering and has shown more confidence to throw it in 2025. Utilized primarily against righties, Arnold’s change-up has legitimate upside.
There’s substantial depth to the offering with adequate fading life to the armside, generating a viable weapon against right-handed bats. Command/feel can lack at times, but it’s an above-average offering that flashes plus.
GRADE: 55
Command/Control: Arnold filled up the zone consistently in 2024, recording a 68% strike rate. In 2025, it’s slightly down, coming in at a 63% clip.
Arnold’s fastball command can waver from time to time, which is likely attributed to a mechanical tweak (Chase Dollander in 2023 is a close example of this). The biggest miss for Arnold has been to the arm-side.
The slider command is exquisite, landing it for strikes at will and consistently getting chases. The change-up command has shown flashes, improving as a whole in 2025.
Overall, Arnold’s control grades out as above-average, though his command has regressed to average. There is room for improvement in a big league development program, though.
Grade: CONTROL: 55 COMMAND: 50
Summation: In a class that lacks sufficient college bats and should prioritize arms early, Arnold’s case to be the leading candidate for 1.1 is tantalizing.
He projects as one of the safer prospects in this class and has the chance to rise through the minors quickly, though there are some rough edges to iron out.
Given what he showed in 2024, the upside is evident, but refining the fastball command will be paramount. With that said, there’s enough to support a No. 3 starter or better in the future. Expect Arnold to hear his name called very early on July 13th.
FV: 55
Role: No. 3 Starter
Grade: Early First Round (Top 3-5 Picks)
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