The train keeps rolling!

We struck gold again last night, cashing out on the Guardians Team Total Under 4.5 (-113). My fingers were crossed as we went into the later innings after Cleveland put up three runs through the first five innings. We weren’t in a good spot after the Angels blew the game open when it came to high-leverage relievers, but the score was so out of reach that Cleveland lifted a few starters, and we edged out a victory in the end.

I’m back with two player props in the early afternoon slate today. Let’s stay hot!

2025 Record: 11-3 (+7.22 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers @ 1:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

White Sox: Martin Perez (0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP in 6 Innings)

Tigers: Jackson Jobe (6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 4 Innings)

Jackson Jobe is the second-ranked pitcher in our Top 100 prospects list and the third-ranked player overall. There is plenty to dream on with his profile, but he couples that with a high floor, making him one of the best prospects in the game. Jobe will likely be a household name in the years to follow, but now he’s a 22-year-old with eight regular season innings in his career. His strikeout line is too high while facing a bad White Sox team.

First off, Jobe has never had five strikeouts in an MLB appearance. He made four appearances last year, all out of the bullpen. He threw 5.2 innings, counting the playoffs, and only recorded two strikeouts.

In his first start this season, he faced the Mariners at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have a below-average offense against righties, and Jobe had the luxury of pitching in the easiest park to pitch in and the easiest park to strike hitters out, per Baseball Savant Park Factor. He threw four innings, tallying 79 pitches, which should be around his limit early on in the season. Jobe allowed three runs, walked four, and only struck out three hitters.

You’d think his matchup against this White Sox offense would be easier, and it is likely to be from a run prevention standpoint, but it’s a tougher matchup regarding strikeouts.

This season, the Mariners’ strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers is 23.1%, while the White Sox’s is 21.8%. Comerica Park ranked 17th in strikeouts compared to T-Mobile at number one. The White Sox lineup has less talent but isn’t swinging and missing as much.

The White Sox did see him for three innings last season. He didn’t allow a hit and struck out two batters. He faced a different White Sox lineup, and among the five batters he did face in this current lineup, he rocked a 14.3% strikeout rate, well below average.

On top of it all, the Tigers’ bullpen is fully rested due to two blowouts. No real need to push Jobe beyond his limit. If he gets into trouble, he may get hooked earlier than usual.

I project Jackson Jobe for 4.0 strikeouts, giving us a 56% chance of staying under, making the true line -130. I would take this to -110. At +110, this is an excellent bet, in my opinion.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets @ 1:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Blue Jays: Bowden Francis (3.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 6 Innings)

Mets: David Peterson (3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 6 Innings)

The Mets’ late-game heroics yesterday overshadowed Chris Bassit’s excellent performance. He threw 6.2 IP without allowing a run while striking out nine batters. Bassitt has consistently struck out more batters on a rate basis than Francis, but we only have to grab five strikeouts to call this a successful day, which Francis has made routine in his short career.

4.5 strikeouts at -105 is a disrespectful line for a pitcher of his caliber. However, I understand why it’s there. Francis only struck out four batters in his debut, and the Mets have done a great job of limiting the strikeouts against righties overall. Francis also faced the Mets last season, tossing eight innings, but only striking out one. All of those useless points have created value on this line.

“Useless” may be a bit harsh, but only four Mets were in the lineup that day and will be in today’s lineup. He only struck out four Nationals. What does that have to do with the Mets? The Mets have a low strikeout rate to start the season, but it’s so early that we can’t draw any factual conclusions.

The Mets put their lineup out early, and there are plenty of targets to look at. Hayden Senger, the third-string catcher, is getting the start, and he has two strikeouts in 5 PA so far (40%). Brett Baty, Jose Siri, and Mark Vientos are high-strikeout candidates, and Jesse Winker is consistently over 20%. That’s five right there, assuming he can’t get one against the first four hitters in the lineup.

Francis made 13 starts last season and was over this line in nine (69%). He averaged 5.62 strikeouts per start, with a median of six. He’s made 10 road starts in his career, going over this line in seven (70%). On the road, he’s averaged six strikeouts per game.

Francis also had 10 swings and misses against the Nationals in his first start, while Bassitt had 11 yesterday. His splitter and curveball racked up a 50% whiff rate in that game. He has the stuff and the ability to go deep in this game to get to five strikeouts or more. He’s also in a great place to strike batters out today.

Citi Field is also a good park for targeting strikeouts. According to Baseball Savant’s Park Factor, it ranks as the sixth easiest place to rack up punch-outs. The Rogers Centre in Toronto ranks 16th in terms of strikeouts. His first start against the Mets was at home, and his first start this year was at home. He’s posted an 8.69 K/9 on the road in his career versus a 7.58 K/9 at home.

I have Bowden Francis projected for 5.2 strikeouts, giving us a 60% chance of hitting the over with a true line of -150. Based on my projections, I would take this up to -130. However, my model on Rithmm likes this play even more, projecting him for 6.1 strikeouts, a 69.8% chance of going over.

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