MLB Picks Today: TheDannyClassic’s Best Bets Thursday, June 25

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With all of that said, let’s dive into today’s slate to identify the best prop bets on the board. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code TDC for a first-bet offer up to $1500 back in bonuses if your first pick loses.

Yesterday’s Best Bets from the article fell short, but we started a new series within my daily social media video to compare the success of total bases props and hits/runs/RBI combination props for the same players.

Welcome to The Pickoff

Wednesday’s matchups led me to label Brice Turang, Jac Caglianone, and Paul Goldschmidt as amazing choices for hitting their overs on props. However, everyone always asks what pushes me towards the over for total bases versus the over for hits/runs/RBI.

In theory, total bases focuses more heavily on the individual and their matchups with the starting pitcher and bullpen, recent performances, and splits. Obviously the number of at bats is heavily influenced by the other 8 players in the lineup, but the likelihood of an extra-base hit takes priority over how Jim, John, and Bobby are doing behind you.

Combination plays like hits/runs/RBI cause me to give greater weight to the performance of the players in the surrounding 4 or 5 batting order slots in the lineup. If Chuckie Robinson is batting 9th in front of Shohei’s second, third, and fourth at-bats, he’s less likely to have a runner on base than if Tommy Edman is in that slot. If Kyle Tucker is striking out behind him, he is less likely to score a run than if Pages and Freeman are on heaters in the second and third lineup positions.

So for three players at a time, we will track how the total bases prop fares against the hits/runs/RBI prop. Is it always better to take the more favorable line? Are bases a trap? Is the ROI worth it? Let’s find out!

Current Tracker and Recap

Day 1 saw two players clear both props, while Jac Caglianone missed the entire mark. Let’s lock in three players to increase this sample size.

Best MLB Props Today

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

7:10 PM Eastern

Mets fans are certainly unhappy with the version of Freddy Peralta they traded for, and with 2026 being the final year of his contract we may see him get moved at the deadline. Tonight, Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs will look to take advantage of Peralta’s shaky season and add to his 4.83 ERA.

Left-handed bats have produced a .262 average and .480 slugging off of the right-handed Peralta, and PCA is putting together a remarkable month of baseball.

Crow-Armstrong has silenced critics, launching 6 home runs in his last 10 games and demolishing the 1.5 hits/runs/RBI line in each of them. He has also surpassed the 1.5 bases line in 8 of those games, averaging 4.1 bases per game.

TheDannyClassic’s Picks of the Day

Pete Crow-Armstrong o 1.5 bases (+105 at BetMGM)

Pete Crow-Armstrong o 1.5 H/R/RBI (-135 at BetMGM)

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM Eastern

The Toronto Blue Jays are preparing to face MacKenzie Gore and the Rangers tonight, who brings in an ERA of 4.07 while only allowing 8 home runs across 84 innings pitched.

Left-handed hitters have been the beneficiaries of a reverse split here, where the left-handed Gore has actually allowed the opposition to hit .278 with a .403 slugging percentage and 10.7% barrel rate from the same side of the plate. However, right-handed hitters have slightly better ISO and produced 7 of the 8 home runs off of Gore.

Vlad Guerrero Jr has not produced power this year, but he has hit Gore very well throughout his career. The Dominican slugger is 4-for-8 lifetime with a double and a home run calculating out to a 1.500 OPS. Three other teammates have a head-to-head OPS over 1.000 when Gore is on the mound, so this should add opportunity for runs and RBI.

TheDannyClassic’s Picks of the Day

Vlad Guerrero Jr o 1.5 bases (+105 at BetMGM)

Vlad Guerrero Jr o 1.5 H/R/RBI (-150 at BetMGM)

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

7:10 PM Eastern

The Bronx Bombers are coming to Fenway and the divisional rivals will be leaning on two young pitchers with bright futures ahead of them. Cam Schlittler is putting together an extremely strong case for the AL Cy Young Award and Connelly Early has developed even quicker than Sox fans had hoped.

Early has a tougher time handling right-handed batters. They are responsible for 10 of the 14 home runs he has allowed, and post a .239 average, .406 slugging percentage, and a barrel rate of 12.3%.

The young guns are going to be out on the mound tonight, but it’s one of the oldest guys on the field that I’m expecting to get it done tonight. Paul Goldschmidt is absolutely surging right when the Yankees needed him most.

Goldschmidt is playing like he Space Jammed the talent right out of the injured Judge, looking more like his former MVP self than the Goldschmidt we have gotten used to in pinstripes. With 5 home runs in the past 10 games, he has eclipsed both the 1.5 total bases line and the 1.5 hits/runs/RBI line in 6 of them, and just the 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in another of the 10 game stretch.

Is the Green Monster big enough to handle the resurrected talent of Paul Goldschmidt?

TheDannyClassic’s Picks of the Day

Paul Goldschmidt o 1.5 bases (+100 at BetMGM)

Paul Goldschmidt o 1.5 H/R/RBI (-150 at BetMGM)