It was a nice winning day yesterday. One more run in the Arizona vs. Seattle game, and we’ll come away with a sweep. We hit on the Mariners through the first five innings and the full game. We took the over 7.5; the Mariners scored six, and the Diamondbacks scored one. That stinks, but we were close.

Today, I have three picks. One is a money line at a plus price, and the other is a hitter I want to target, and he’s also at a plus price. The last is a total I think is too high.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 32-35 (-5.23 U)

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins @ 4:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Mitchell Parker vs. Edward Cabrera

I wanted to take the Nationals yesterday, but with Luzardo scratched, the pitching matchup went out of whack, and the market crashed. I wasn’t sure how to react, so I just stayed off. As long as the Marlins are favorites, the Nationals must be bet.

The Marlins should rarely be favorites in any matchup, and certainly not here.

Mitchell Parker will line up for the Nationals. He’s faced the Astros and Dodgers, and his ERA is 1.50. That’s almost enough to not think twice and just take the Nationals. When we go a bit deeper, we see his xERA is 2.37, largely because he has yet to walk a batter, and his strikeout rate is 27.9%.

I’m not entirely buying this, but I am today. He’s facing an awful Marlins lineup that has yet to hit lefties all season. Over the past two weeks, they have a 61 wRC+ against lefties. That places them 39% below the league-average offense and the 27th-ranked team in that span. This has been a full-season struggle for Miami, as they sit dead last in wRC+ at 46.

Edward Cabrera lines up for Miami. He’s the best pitcher in the rotation after Luzardo hit the shelf. He has fantastic stuff, but command is the problem. When he’s on, he can be dominant. When he’s off, things can get out of hand quickly.

The Nationals have not only seen him before but it’s gone well. It’s a small sample of 33 PA, but Nationals bats have a .281 BA, .293 xBA, and a .376 xwOBA. All of those are below average for a pitcher.

The Nationals are a top-ten offense on the road against righties this season. They have a 112 wRC+ in these spots, right above the Giants and Phillies. Just in the last two weeks, they have a 91 wRC+ against righties, placing them 18th. It’s a fine offense, nothing special, but it’s enough to hang with the Marlins.

I want to soak up every bullpen inning I can against the Marlins. They have Tanner Scott available, but he’s likely only to come in late when they have a lead or it’s tied. Outside of that, they have Anthony Bender (5.14 xERA) and Declan Cronin (2.93 xERA). The whole bullpen is not rested and arguably the worst in baseball.

The Nationals bullpen isn’t great either, but they are in a better rest spot. They have four relievers ready to go compared to the Marlins two.

Edward Cabrera is the better pitcher, but Parker has the better matchup. I’ll take the Nationals offense and bullpen over the Marlins. Take the Nationals to win as the underdog today.

The Pick: Nationals ML (+120) Risk 1 Unit

Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs. Charlie Morton

This total is too high. Both offenses are great, but we have two solid pitchers with two rested bullpens. We also have two teams in their lesser split.

Both of these offenses are fantastic against left-handed pitching. They are easy top five offenses on both sides. However, against righties, the offenses are still good but not quite as strong.

Over the past two weeks, neither of these offenses has been in the top ten against right-handed pitching. The Braves are 12th, while the Guardians are 17th.

Tanner Bibee lines up for Cleveland. He’s as solid as they come, but he could be off to a better start by his standards. He’s made five starts, and three of them have been great. He did have one weird, rough start against the White Sox and a below-average start against the A’s. The Braves will be a tough test, and I’m not here to tell you he’ll dominate.

The Braves have never seen him, so that’s something working in his favor. I’m expecting five innings with three runs. Nothing dominant, but I trust him to be good enough to keep us in the game.

Charlie Morton lines up on the other side. He has an easier matchup against a Cleveland offense dragging its feet. He’s recorded 26 PA against the Guardians’ current roster and only surrendered four hits.

Morton has looked solid this year, putting up a 3.34 xERA. His velocity is slightly down, but his pitches still spin at a well-above-average rate. He also has some extra rest in this one, as his last start was on April 20th. He should come out firing. My guess is 5 to 6 innings, allowing two or three runs.

Even if six runs are scored in the first five innings, I think we are in a fine spot. I don’t think we get six runs in the first five, but if we do, we can make it.

Both of these bullpens rank within the top ten, with the Guardians at number two right now. The Guardians have six key arms that are fully rested. The Braves have every single pitcher available except AJ Minter, who could realistically come in if they need. I expect scoring to stall late.

These offenses are great, but they both still need to explode to go over. Nine is high, especially with 5-10 MPH wind blowing in. Nine is the critical number, but I’d play at 8.5 if you get -105 or better.

The Pick: Braves vs. Guardians Under 9 (-120) Risk 1.2 Units

Player Props

Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Bases (+125) Risk 0.5 Units

The Mariners catcher is hitting the ball so damn hard. He has the eleventh-highest Hard-Hit rate in baseball at 56%. He didn’t have a hit yesterday but recorded a 99.0 MPH exit velocity against Zac Gallen. It’s coming off the bat hot when he hits it, and I want a bit of upside here.

Slade Cecconi is a fine pitcher, but Raleigh has a great matchup against him. Cecconi has posted a 5.40 ERA against lefties with a .364 SLG against. His XBH rate against lefties is 100%. That happens when we have a small sample, but if Cecconi is getting hit hard by lefties, I want the hardest-hitting lefty the Mariners have and the seventh-ranked hard-hitting lefty in baseball right now.

Raleigh struggles against changeups, so we might lose this bet if Cecconi spans him with that pitch. I doubt that happens, as his fastball and slider are his most used pitches. Raleigh is crushing those pitches, putting up a .400 wOBA against fastballs and a .600 wOBA against sliders.

Behind Cecconi is a below-average bullpen. Arizona might bring in Joe Mantiply or Kyle Nelson to face Raleigh, but I’m okay with that. Raleigh has posted a .533 SLG against lefties this year, higher than the rate against righties. I’m looking at power here when I take an over 1.5 bases prop, and Raleigh has it in every matchup today. It’s a really good price for the odds leader in home runs today.

Raleigh has a 208 wRC+ and a .708 SLG over the past week. Back the hot bat to hit a ball in the gap for a double or put it over the fence. Even if we only get singles, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a two-hit day.

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