Yesterday was weird. The Guardians game got postponed. The Orioles scratched Grayson Rodriguez five minutes before the game for Albert Suarez, and he dominated. I couldn’t believe how bad the Orioles looked against Bassitt. Thankfully, the Rockies came through, and I finally defeated the final boss, Grimace. We took no losses nor wins yesterday, just some free entertainment.

Today, we are rocking with two picks. One is a total, and the other a team total. Good prices on both, let’s rock.

2024 Record: 95-99 (-7.18 U)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta (3.89 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (2.71 ERA)

The Braves have been shut out in two straight games in embarrassing fashion. They got blanked by Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins while losing 7-0. After an off-day yesterday, they lost even worse to Colin Rea and the Brewers 10-0. If you have any faith left in the Braves, you back them to score today.

I love Chris Sale. He can win the CY Young. However, he just faced Milwaukee in his last start. He has great numbers against them, but the recent familiarity gives me pause. He pitches relatively well, but I’d rather keep him out of the equation. The Braves ML is much more expensive than backing the Braves bats, which nobody wants to do right now.

While the Braves offense has scored zero runs in the last two games, this isn’t a long, cold stretch. The previous time Peralta faced the Braves on July 31st, the Braves scored six in that game. They averaged 4.66 runs per game in that series. They averaged four runs per game in the first three games of the series against Miami and were shut out twice.

They aren’t a prolific offense right now, but they have a 101 wRC+ against righties, slightly above league average. They also benefit from facing a pitcher they just saw in Freddy Peralta. Peralta did pitch well against them, tossing six innings of two-run ball.

Peralta is pretty straightforward. He features a fastball, slider, and changeup while sprinkling in the occasional curveball. The Braves rank 13th in xwOBA against that mix, and I have more faith in the Braves adjusting to Peralta after a nice outing. The books also think so, as his 16.5 outs prop is a bit strange, coupled with a 2.5 earned run line creeping toward the over.

It’s a good bet that Peralta allows three earned runs or more in his start today. He has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, and when the Braves faced him the previous season they scored six runs.

That was a different lineup, but Acuna, Albies, and Harris combined to go 1-12 in that game, with the lone hit being a single that didn’t matter. Most of the current Braves lineup did the damage in that one. In Peralta’s last five starts overall, the opponent has scored five runs or more in four of them.

The Brewers bullpen is outstanding, and it’s rested. Scary, I know, but at the end of the day, anyone on the Braves can take anybody out of the park at any time. With how I think Peralta gets hit today, they’ll likely have to shut out the Braves or keep them to one run in the later innings. If they can do that, I’ll tip my cap, but it’s a plus money team total for a reason.

This is the bottom of the market for the Braves. A team that has disappointed many of us all season rights those wrongs today and puts up a crooked number. It’s a plus number for a reason, but we should get there.

The Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (+110) Risk 1 Unit

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal (2.57 ERA) vs. George Kirby (3.04 ERA)

They tried making this total as low as possible, but it wasn’t low enough. These two pitchers deserve one of the lowest totals of the season, and so do the offenses. We are due for a classic 1-0 pitcher’s duel, and in the most prominent pitcher’s park in baseball, I think we get it.

Skubal and Kirby. They are two of the best young pitchers in the game. Skubal is the favorite to win the CY Young in the American League, and Kirby is having another phenomenal season.

The Tigers lineup has fallen flat on its face. It’s not their fault, as their best hitter, Riley Greene, has been hurt since July 25th. Kerry Carpenter has been out of the lineup for a while, their second-best hitter. That’s important against Kirby, as his OPS against lefties is much higher than against righties. This current lineup looks like a window into next year, with some fun and exciting young players.

Since the All-Star break ended, the Tigers have a 74 wRC+ against right-handers, the third worst in the league. Over the last two weeks, it’s been even worse, dropping to a 60 wRC+, and the team is averaging under three runs per game in that span.

A lot of this Tigers lineup is young and has yet to face Kirby, but the veterans have, and they have two hits in 14 ABs. It’s a small sample, but nothing in the data tells me Kirby can’t dominate today. He has a 2.52 ERA in home games and a 2.57 ERA during night games. In these spots, he shows up for his team significantly. I project him at six innings with one run allowed.

Tarik Skubal is arguably the best left-handed pitcher on the planet. I shouldn’t have to list all the reasons why he’s so good; we all know it. He gets a lineup that is still without Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford. They also might be without Justin Turner, who prefers lefties. He got hit on the hand yesterday and was taken out. X-rays were negative, but I wouldn’t want to face Skubal with a beat-up hand.

The Mariners have also been terrible against lefties since the All-Star break, with a 78 wRC+. They also haven’t seen Skubal this year, but when the current roster did, they posted a .282 xwOBA. Pitiful.

Another reason I love this under is that Skubal is coming off a rough start, allowing five earned to the Royals. The last time he allowed five earned runs in a start, he came right back around and shut out the Phillies over seven innings, and that’s when the Phillies were hot. I will ride into battle with Skubal off a bad start. I project Skubal for much of the same: six innings of one-run ball.

Both starters will exit to rested bullpens with key arms available. The Mariners bullpen has been throwing like a top-five unit, and their six favorite arms are all rested and ready to go. I see the Tigers putting up at most two runs in this game.

On the Tigers side, they have Tyler Holton and Jason Foley ready to go, and Will Vest and Alex Faedo if needed. I doubt many of them are necessary with Skubal’s length, but all quality arms can hold down the Mariners in the late innings.

We also have the wind blowing in, projected at 8 MPH at game time. It’s the best pitching park in the majors, with two elite starters, two reeling offenses, and two bullpens in a good spot. These super low totals have been going over, but this is the one that stays under. One of these pitching staffs has the upside to shut out one side completely, and both have a great shot at limiting to 2-3 runs.

The Pick: Tigers v Mariners Under 6 (-105)

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500