I put my units in the wrong spots yesterday. Our smaller play cashed, as Jack Kochanowicz went over 3.5 strikeouts against the A’s. He started to get shelled as soon as he got his fourth strikeout. I’m so glad we got out of there with a win when we did.

We lost our bigger play on the Mariners. It’s hard to say I’m shocked that the Mariners’ offense didn’t show up, but I was pretty disappointed. That was the game you were supposed to win. They are worse than I thought, and we have Astros futures.

Overall, we dropped about three-quarters of a unit. Not so bad, and it’s time to make it back today and then some.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 85-87 (-6.64 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Pfaadt (3.97 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (2.97 ERA)

I went into this game planning on fading Shota Imanaga in some fashion. His matchup is extremely challenging, and he’s had some of his worst starts during the day and at home. I considered taking the Diamondbacks, but the Cubs are on sweep watch. It takes a lot of work to sweep a team at home. I thought about taking the over, which is a good bet, but the best price I’m seeing is to fade Shota directly on his pitching outs line.

It’s a bit more risky, as Shota has been over this line in three straight games, but this matchup couldn’t be much worse with how Arizona is hitting lefties. It’s the pitch mix Imanaga throws that should get him in trouble.

Shota Imanaga primarily relies on his four-seam fastball and splitter. It takes up about 88% of his arsenal, and both are solid pitches. His four-seam fastball is due for some negative regression, but they are both above-average offerings overall. However, the Diamondbacks pillage that combination from lefties. The Diamondbacks have the number one xwOBA in the league against those two pitches from lefties at .390. The chart below shows the top ten teams against this mix.

The next best team against those offerings is the Braves at .369, who didn’t score a run against Imanaga, but he did only go five innings and allowed seven hits. The Dodgers and Mariners (3rd and 4th ranked) forced him to go under six innings. The fifth-ranked team, the Mets, hit him for ten earned runs in three innings. That’s why I’m interested in pitching outs. Whether the teams scored or not, he didn’t go over six innings against any team that ranks in the top five, and now he gets the best one.

If we add sweepers and curveballs, which have a combined usage rate of 11.1%, the Diamondbacks still rank number one in xwOBA at .375, 21 points higher than the second-place Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are a force against lefties in general. They are projected to have eight right-handed hitters in their lineup today, Imagana’s lesser split (.552 OPS vs LHH, .678 OPS vs RHH). Since June began, they have a 125 wRC+, seventh best in the league. Since July began, that has increased to 131.

Another wrinkle is that Shota is not his best spot at home and during the day. He has a 3.40 ERA at home versus a 2.51 ERA on the road. He also has a 3.63 ERA during day games versus a 2.51 ERA during night games. The start against the Mets is the big reason those numbers are what they are, but the Mets faced him in a home day game, and they performed well against his pitch mix…

There is also an element of a potential innings limit looming with Imanaga. The most innings he’s ever thrown in a season is 170, which was back in 2019. He has yet to throw more than 160 since then. Not to say they will limit his innings today, but it’s in the back of Counsell’s mind. If his pitch count increases, I think he’ll be more aggressive in taking his starter out earlier moving forward.

The Cubs also have yet to use many high-leverage arms, and everyone is pretty rested after the All-Star break. While Imanaga has been over this number in five of his last six starts, he hasn’t been against any team in the top five against this mix. I prefer matchup trends over “last five” trends, which is why it’s at a plus number in my opinion.

It’s a better price than playing Arizona on the ML or the over in the game. As long as this is +100 or better, it’s a whole unit—anything to -115 or higher limits the risk.

The Pick: Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+110) Risk 1 Unit