MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for September 7, 2023

Randy Arozarena
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 15: Randy Arozarena #56 of Team Mexico reacts after hitting a three-run double during the sixth inning of the World Baseball Classic Pool C game against Team Canada at Chase Field on March 15, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. Mexico defeated Canada 10-3 to advance to the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

We tumbled a little bit on Tuesday, dropping a half unit. We went 1-1, but I put my units in the wrong spots. The Royals were the half-unit play, and they came back to win 7-6. We took the Guardians to win, and Trevor Stephen blew it in the eighth inning. We got a huge break with the Royals and a bad beat with the Guardians. Baseball!

Here is my favorite pick for Thursday’s action.

2023 Straight Plays Record: 153-160 (-7.55 U)

I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a first bet offer of up to $1500.

All prop entries will be on PrizePicks. Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo vs. Zach Littell

The Mariners bats come alive when Luis Castillo is on the mound. I’m unsure why; maybe they love the guy so much. Castillo sits in the fifth in the American League in run support per nine innings, and I think they’ll get to Zack Littell. On the flip side, the Rays have already gotten to Castillo before, and they have a good matchup once again.

In Castillo’s last 12 starts, the total has gone over 7.5. Castillo normally gives up a couple, and the Mariners score 5-6 runs. Sometimes, Castillo gives up a bunch of runs, but the Mariners still contribute. That’s what originally led me to look into this game.

Most of the Mariner’s pitching staff shares a common theme: struggling against left-handed hitting. It’s not a completely dominant left-handed lineup, but they will have at least four lefties; Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Luke Railey, and Taylor Walls or Oselvis Basabe. The big-time righties for the Rays have shown they can hit Castillo and hit him for power. Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Yandy Diaz are a combined 5-14 (.357) with two home runs and a double.

Luis Castillo also has had some issues on the road this season. In T-Mobile Park, Castillo has posted a 2.49 ERA, 3.32 FIP, and 3.23 xFIP. On the road this year, he’s posted a 3.99 ERA, 4.39 FIP, and 4.44 xFIP. He’s facing the eighth-best offense against right-handed pitching at home since August 1. Over the entire season, this Rays offense really hits righties at home, ranking fifth in baseball at 118 wRC+.

Zack Littell will toe the rubber for Tampa Bay. He’s really struggled to be effective in Tampa Bay, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 5.48 FIP, and a 4.16 xFIP. He’s facing a Seattle offense that ranks sixth in wRC+ against righties on the road this season by wRC+. Since August 1st, they rank third in wRC+ against righties on the road with a 134 wRC+.

The Mariners have a great bullpen but aren’t in a great spot, especially with their best arms. Topa, Brash, and Munoz are their best arms, and all may not be available today after throwing in back-to-back days.

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Same wave with the Rays bullpen. They have plenty of options to go to, but only Kevin Kelly and Robert Stephenson have appropriate rest to be at their best today. I like both arms, but I think runs will be scored after the starters exit on both sides.

I bet this last night and see the market has moved with us. I see eight at -115, which is worth a 0.75 U.

The Pick: Mariners vs. Rays Over 7.5 (-120) Risk 1 U

Tracked on Pikkit