THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT.

We had two plays yesterday. One of them almost put me in a retirement home, and the other was one of the easier bets of the season. Mitch Keller’s over 5.5 hits allowed (+115) was a borderline miracle, as he entered his last inning with only four hits. He got the first two outs, hit a batter, then allowed two straight hits against Dylan Crews and Nasim Nunez. We were due for some good luck, and we got it.

How about Quinn Priester!? Never a doubt, as he shut out the Tigers while only allowing one hit. On the other hand, Flaherty’s start looked exactly like I thought it would. Brewers First 5 ML (+115) was a success. That was a much-needed sweep. Let’s do it again.

2025 Record: 17-11 (+6.00 Units)

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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Red Sox: Sean Newcomb (4.97 ERA, 2.13 WHIP in 12.2 Innings)

Rays: Zack Littell (6.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 17 Innings)

The Rays have played eight straight home games at George Steinbrenner Field. Those games are averaging 10.6 runs per game, and in this Red Sox series, the first two games resulted in 28 runs. Today, we get a starting pitching matchup with the two worst arms in either team’s rotation. The books raised this total a full run from the last two games; they shouldn’t have done that. Incorporating everything I just said, the total is still too high.

While neither of these starters got off to a great start this season, I like the matchup for both today. Let’s start with the guy with an ERA near seven: Zack Littell.

Littell’s numbers are genuinely incredible against the Red Sox’s current roster. Over 51 PA, Littell has held them to a .122 batting average with a .279 xwOBA while maintaining a 33% strikeout rate. He threw against them three times last season, pitching to a 3.06 ERA while maintaining a .169 batting average against.

Littell won’t have a 6.88 ERA for long. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to last year when he pitched to a 3.63 ERA. He’s allowing harder contact to start the year, but I will dismiss that in a small sample. Littell also has the luxury of going against a Red Sox lineup without a key cog.

Alex Bregman went 5-5 for the first time in his career yesterday, raising his wRC+ to 161. He was put on paternity leave after the game for the birth of his son. He will not be in today’s lineup.

The Red Sox destroyed Ryan Pepiot yesterday, thanks to an incredible Alex Bregman game, but they still don’t scare me against right-handed pitching. Even with that performance, they raised their wRC+ against righties to 100, the league average. They also have the fourth-highest batting average on balls in play against righties, which will eventually come down.

The Rays’ bullpen is also in a great spot to come in after Littell. The Rays’ two best relievers, Fairbanks and Uceta, still haven’t pitched in a while, so we should see them regardless of the score. Mason Montgomery and Garrett Cleavinger are also available, as are a few more arms that haven’t gotten much work lately. The Rays have a top ten bullpen at the worst, so I don’t see the Red Sox going over their 4.5 team total, which is juiced to the under anyway.

I also don’t see a path to success for the Rays offense in this one. Sean Newcomb’s underlying ERA predictors point towards future success for the left-hander. While he’s rocking a 4.97 ERA to start the year, his FIP is 2.55, his xERA is 3.44, and his SIERA is 4.02. That’s where he eventually settles in, sitting at the end of the year with an ERA near four.

While his four-seam fastball is only 93 MPH, opponents only hit .133 with a .149 xwOBA against it. It’s his most-used offering, and batters are having difficulty squaring it up. His slurve looks like a plus pitch with a 42% whiff rate and a .147 xwOBA against. He’s not going to win a CY Young anytime soon, but I believe he’s a fine pitcher capable of success in this matchup.

The Rays’ lineup is off to a roaring start, and against righties, they are a force to be reckoned with. Two of the best hitters in the league right now, Jonathan Aranda and Kam Mizner, are obliterating right-handed pitching. Brandon Lowe crushes them, as does Jake Mangum. However, they haven’t been able to replicate that success against lefties, sitting with a 100 wRC+ this season, at league average.

It’s not a bad offense against lefties, as they got to Chris Sale for three runs in his last start, but when the Rays offense won’t have Mizner and Aranda in it, I’ll take my chances that it’s a slower day for their offense.

The Red Sox bullpen is also in a decent spot for this one. Aroldis Chapman should be available after only throwing five pitches yesterday, and he had an off day on Monday. Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten are ready to go, so the Red Sox will have their three best prepared for this one. The only relievers not available are Michael Fulmer and Zack Kelly, which is fine by me.

While the starters’ numbers to start the year point towards an over, the pitching matchup and bullpen quality call for an under. Steinbrenner Field is also projected to have horizontal winds, so we shouldn’t get wind blowing straight out to aid home runs. I think this total should be what it was in the first two games: 8.5. Considering we get a 9.5, that’s the best bet of the day. I would take this down to 9 (-110). At the time of writing, this line is still available. I’d grab 9.5 (-120) instead of a cheap nine in case it lands on that key number.

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