The Royals! What a fun game that was. We took Kansas City at +115 on the ML, and every single time the Mariners scored, the Royals would score in that inning. I want to give Ralph Michaels a lot of credit for his system, as the previous six teams who fit it are now 0-6, losing by an average score of four runs per game.

Today, we are dumpster diving for value. Sundays are often the weirdest days in baseball, so let’s take a shot on a team that is heating up, but nobody cares. We will be the only people on the planet backing this team today.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 58-71 (-14.22 U)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Zach Kelly vs Chris Flexen

Every once in a while, the White Sox go on a mini streak. It doesn’t often go very long, and the losing streaks are far longer, but right now, they are in the midst of a two-game win streak after dropping 14 in a row. Today, they face off against a Red Sox team, missing its two best hitters and going with a bullpen game on the mound. The south side sneaks up on them again today.

I can’t back the White Sox through the entire game. They used their four best relievers yesterday, and we’ve seen them blow a million leads. If they go down after five innings and somehow mount a comeback, I’ll tip my cap. Let’s focus on the first five innings.

Let’s talk about Chris Flexen. He’s not a pitcher one typically wants to back, but he does have some redeeming qualities. His ERA estimators are all in the mid-fours, predicting his 5.19 ERA will eventually come down. He’s done a great job at limiting hard contact, sitting in the 74th percentile in the game. That keeps him in games, resulting in back-to-back starts allowing two runs or fewer over five innings against the Blue Jays and Cubs.

We have 15 MPH wind blowing out, so backing the pitcher who lives on soft contact should bode relatively well for these conditions. Not having O’Neill or Devers in the Red Sox lineup is massive, as they are a combined 6-11 with two doubles and a home run against Flexen. The rest of the lineup is 2-8 against Flexen.

The White Sox offense faces off against a bullpen game. It’s been announced that it’s a true bullpen game, so we are still determining exactly who will come in after Kelly. We can take an educated guess; it should be Brennan Bernardino, who has gone multiple innings for the Red Sox this year and hasn’t pitched in seven days.

Bernardino has been excellent for the Sox this year, but he will face a lineup filled with righties that have a 120 wRC+ against lefties this week over the past two weeks. Luis Robert had an off day yesterday, so he’s back. Julks, Vaughn, and Dejong all prefer hitting lefties as well.

The Red Sox may go to Cam Boozer next, another left-handed reliever who’s a step below Bernardino. My guess is they would save their best relievers for the tail end, instead of forcing them into the beginning of the game.

The White Sox have been above average against both sides of the rubber over the last week. I know it’s a small sample, but teams this bad only stay hot for a short time. They have a 111 wRC+ against righties and a 118 wRC+ against lefties over the past week.

The White Sox’s only chance of winning this year is when they are at home. They are 12-22 at home compared to an abysmal 5-26 on the road. Over the White Sox’s last ten games, they have had the lead after five innings in six.

If the game is tied after five innings, we have a push. I’ve looked at some sites focusing on betting splits, and the amount of money on the Red Sox is absurd. With all that money, the line is dropping in favor of the White Sox. Let’s take a shot on a Sunday.

The Pick: White Sox First 5 Innings ML (+120) Risk 0.5 Units