Before the birds started chirping, we had a winner in our pocket. Yesterday’s start to the MLB season was a success, hitting the under 8.5 with ease. The game ended 4-1, but it could have been lower-scoring if the Cubs hadn’t made a costly error to extend the inning.

Game 2 of the Tokyo Series starts on Wednesday, March 19th, when the Dodgers take on the Cubs. It’s another early start; first pitch is at 6:10 AM EST. Set your alarms!

Here are my betting stats from the 2024 MLB Season:

2025 Record: 1-0 (+1 Unit)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs @ 6:10 AM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Dodgers: Roki Sasaki (First MLB Start)

Cubs: Justin Steele (3.07 ERA, 3.23 FIP in 134.1 innings)

Roki Sasaki became a household name when he blew a 102 MPH fastball past Randy Arozarena in the World Baseball Classic. He was already a budding superstar at 19 years old in the NPB, but on the world stage at 21, we all became Roki Sasaki fans.

Anyone outside of Los Angeles was disappointed when he eventually signed with the Dodgers. He then lit social media on fire with highlights of his 100 MPH fastball and unique spittler. The hype is real for Roki Sasaki, which has created value on his props for this game.

Roki Sasaki’s ceiling is sky-high as he matures, but the current 23-year-old still has a lot of work to do to establish himself as a true frontline starter. There is a reason he signed for $6.5 million while Yamamoto made $325 million. We must remember that Sasaki is still a prospect, albeit a great one. Aram ranked him as the number two prospect in baseball, but this is what he had to say about his outlook.

“Though still just 23 years old for the entirety of the 2025 season, Sasaki has yet to show that he can handle a full starter’s workload dealing with ailments popping up each of the last few seasons including oblique and shoulder injuries. Yet to eclipse 130 innings pitched, the Dodgers will likely be cautious with Sasaki in his first MLB season as he not only looks to build his workload and distance himself from 2024’s shoulder issues, but also regain his fastball quality.”

Sasaki has only thrown seven innings this spring over two appearances, with only one of those as the starter in the game. He hasn’t allowed a run yet, which is fantastic, but his 7:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is not ideal. I watched both spring training starts, and his fastball looks hittable. It’s more “fast” than “hard,” I mean that the spin rate is low, as is the induced vertical movement. He’ll likely be sitting 98 MPH, but big leaguers can time that up.

He will be in for a tough day if he fails to locate the splitter. His slider is a solid offering but still a work in progress. They just faced Yamamoto, who has six different pitchers and better command of the zone than Sasaki. Yamamoto relied on his fastball and splitter the most, so the Cubs will face a similar set-up in game two, making the at-bats a bit easier.

Roki Sasaki’s pitch count peaked at 46 in spring training. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 75 pitches in his final spring training start but was lifted at 72 pitches in game one. Shota Imanaga threw 77 pitches in his last spring training start but was pulled before he reached 70 pitches. I project that the Dodgers have Sasaki on a 50-pitch leash, and I think the peak is 60 pitches.

The Cubs are not an aggressive lineup that gets swing-happy. While Yamamoto cruised, he only mustered 11 swings and misses. Shota Imanaga had 12 in four innings, and Ben Brown had 14 in three innings. Four of the top five pitchers in that category were on the Cubs side.

Last year’s Cubs lineup had the third-highest walk rate and 16th-ranked strikeout rate against righties. The only changes are adding Kyle Tucker, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, and Matt Shaw, who will probably end up being one of Roki’s strikeouts. Still, it’s a lineup I am comfortable backing in these markets.

I think Roki Sasaki won’t finish four complete innings, which is equivalent to 12 outs. If I were looking at the current lines, I would be willing to bet under 12.5 pitching outs. I would take the under at 4.5 at -125 or better regarding the strikeouts.

If the lines move too much, I would suggest a pivot to betting Cubs ML or Cubs First 5 ML. I believe Steele will outduel Sasaki early, but I’d prefer the first five innings because the Cubs bullpen is still a work in progress. The Dodgers still have six different fresh arms they can go to, and they can still go to Scott or Treinen after neither of them threw more than 20 pitches. Both teams won’t play an official game again until March 27th, so we could easily see any of the relievers that threw on Tuesday.

The Picks:

I sent this out to our discord members first, and unfortunately, I cannot control line movement. For just $5, you can join for a full 30 days! We also have discounted six-month and year packages. You’ll get all my picks as soon as I place them, and all of my 2025 MLB futures can also be found there.