The MLB futures market has always been my favorite place to bet; my projections are best over a full season. I have risked a total of 29.36 units, and with under 50 games left in the season, I thought it was time to look back on everything I’ve bet and provide a status update.

What you’ll find is the Bat X projection (my favorite FanGraphs projection system), and the current bettable line from BetMGM. I decided not to include my personal projections, because those are skewing towards the bets I’ve made. This is a third-party, unbiased look at how all the futures are projected to end.

In 2025, my futures netted us 28.57 units of profit. In 2024, that net profit number was 16.65 Units. So, over the past two years, we are up a total of 45.22 units. I will go over every single bet with the projected line, and based off that projection, I’ll add it all up at the end. Take the final number with a grain of salt, but it gives us a good ballpark number to strive for if the projections end up being correct.

Win Totals/Playoffs

Colorado Rockies

The Bet(s): Over 52.5 Wins (-110), 60+ Wins (+370), 65+ Wins (+950)

BetMGM Line: Over 62.5 Wins (+105)

Bat X Projection: 64.1 Wins

My biggest win total bet of the season. A total of five units risked on the Rockies spread out over three bets, with the largest (3.65 U) on the over 52.5 wins. If the Rockies win 65 or more games, we would net 10.78 units of profit. As of now, I have them projected to fall just short, and the Bat X is a little bit lower, but if you want any additional action, I show an edge on the over 62.5 wins right now.

Based on run differential, the Rockies xW/L record is 48-67, so they should be a bit better than their current 45-71 record. That said, our bet doesn’t care about expected numbers, we still have 20 wins to go to get to 65 wins with 46 games left to be played. It won’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible. The most likely scenario is they finish between 60 and 65 wins, which would still net us 6.13 units in profit. The race for 65 wins will be a fun one down the stretch.

San Diego Padres

The Bet(s): Under 85.5 Wins (-115), Padres MISS Playoffs (+130)

BetMGM Line: Over 83.5 Wins (-115), Padres MAKE Playoffs (+140)

Bat X Projection: 82.1 Wins, Padres MAKE Playoffs (+295)

There is a sizeable edge based on my projections and the Bat X projections for the Padres to miss the playoffs, which is exactly what we bet, making the “MISS” -295. Based on that projection, there is only a 25% chance the Padres make the playoffs, and they are currently projected to fall three wins short. So, as of now, we are projected to win both of these two unit wagers, netting us 4.46 units of profit.

As of now, the NL wild-card teams are the Cubs, Phillies, and Diamondbacks with the Padres on the outside looking in. It’s by no means a lock that both of these hit, but I do feel confident we come out with two winners here. The Padres’ current record is 60-57, so they would need to go 26-19 down the stretch to surpass their win total.

Houston Astros

The Bet(s): Under 86.5 Wins (-110), Astros MISS Playoffs (+155)

BetMGM Line: Over 83.5 Wins (-125), Astros MAKE Playoffs (-200)

Bat X Projection: 83.2 Wins, Astros MAKE Playoffs (-162)

The Bat X believes the “Astros to make the playoffs” bet is overvalued, but at the same time, the “miss” is +162, which is slightly off what we bet at the beginning of the season. Thankfully, the larger play (two units) is on the Astros win total, which is on pace to win. Unlike the Padres wager, I only put one unit on the Astros to miss the playoffs, so even if they end up making it, we would still net 0.39 units on these wagers.

This latest hot stretch from Houston really helped their chances, and with Peña and Yordan hitting the way they are, it’ll be challenging to knock them off the mantle in a weak American League. They currently sit with a 60-57 record, so they would need to go 27-18 down the stretch for us to lose the win total. I think it’s unlikely, but I do think they end up making the playoffs.

St Louis Cardinals

The Bet: Over 68.5 Wins (-118)

BetMGM Line: Over 79.5 Wins (-118)

Bat X Projection: 80.4 Wins

Some of my finest work. The Cardinals were left for dead by everyone at the beginning of the season and I couldn’t understand why. I didn’t bet them to make the playoffs, but I thought this team would finish in the 74-76 win range. They’ve exceeded my expectations, and with their current 58-58 record, they only have to go 11-35 the rest of the way for us to win two units on their win total.

Minnesota Twins

The Bet: Over 73.5 Wins (-110)

BetMGM Line: Over 80.5 Wins (-105)

Bat X Projection: 80.2 Wins

As a 4.3%’er, I’m proud of this one. That low percentage comes from The Athletic’s annual “Hope-O-Meter” fan survey that was written before the season started. Only 4.3% of surveyed Twins’ fans said they were optimistic about the team’s upcoming season. That was the lowest of any team. Twins fans who believed in this team rallied behind that number, as have I, and so far, we have been proven right.

Minnesota bought at this deadline and currently sit just two games behind the White Sox for the AL Central lead. We also bet on their division odds, which we’ll discuss later. This section is about their win total, which they are projected to surpass by 7 wins. They currently sit at 58-59, so they need to go 16-29 the rest of the way to reach 74 wins. I feel good about projecting a two unit win here.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bet: Over 76.5 Wins (-115)

BetMGM Line: Over 79.5 Wins (-115)

Bat X Projection: 79.9 Wins

This one looked so good early, but now, it’s becoming a bit of a sweat. We are still projected to win, but not so long ago this team was looking at a potential playoff berth. That dream isn’t dead yet, but it’s certainly not looking good. That said, we don’t need them to make the playoffs, we just need them to play at their current pace to win our bet. Injuries have really hurt this team; they’ve lost Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, and Ryan O’Hearn. Paul Skenes has a 3.96 ERA and the Pirates are 9-15 in his starts. Even so, they are projected to clear this win total by three games. With injury luck and a normal Skenes, this is a playoff team.

Right now, they sit with a 57-61 record, so they need to go 20-24 the rest of the way to go over their win total. For it to lose, they would have to play below pace the rest of the season, which does seem unlikely, as this is the worst stretch of the season for them and they will get healthier as the season goes along. I project a two-unit win here, but by no means is this one a lock.

Atlanta Braves

The Bet: Under 95.5 Wins (+100)

BetMGM Line: Over 95.5 Wins (+100)

Bat X Projection: 93.4 Wins

I bet this one a few days ago, and looking back, I probably should have waited until after the Marlins series, but not much harm done. I didn’t make this bet because I thought the Braves would free-fall, it was simply a numbers play on a win total that I felt was inflated due to a recent winning streak. I just wrote this up, which you can find here. If you haven’t bet it yet, I still would reccomend it, as the only thing that’s changed is the juice flipped from the under to the over (in our direction).

I’m personally at 93.0, and the Bat X is at 93.4, so you’re seeing about two wins of value if you jump on now. The Braves have to go 26-21 the rest of the way for us to lose this, which is entirely possible, but I trust my numbers. I say they fall short and we come out with two units of profit.

Division Bets

Texas Rangers

The Bet: WIN AL West (+255)

BetMGM line: (+225)

Bat X Projection: (+160)

While there is currently value on the Rangers to win the division, this one is still ultimately projected to lose. I still believe, as they are only 1.5 games out, but what we are doing here is using the projections to find a total number, and this has a 38.5% chance of hitting, which is less than the 50% threshold. The Rangers lineup is finally healthy with Seager and Langford back, but I can’t help but be disappointed with their trade deadline. Texas has the easier strength of schedule down the stretch, but it’s not by much, and the Astros simply look like the better team at the moment. That can change, but as of now, I’m projecting a one unit loss.

Minnesota Twins

The Bet: WIN AL Central (+600)

BetMGM Line: (+600)

Bat X Projection: (+410)

BetMGM has the best price in the market for Twins’ division bettors, as the rest sits between +425 and +550. Regardless, the Bat X is showing value on all of them as the Twins sit just two games back of the White Sox for the division. However, they aren’t the only team in the central vying for the crown, as the Guardians have the exact same record and their projected line is +190. The Tigers are also on their heels, sitting with a 56-60 record, 3.5 games out. However, projections are far less bullish on them, giving them a 10.9% chance (+820) to win the Central. I’m counting this one as a 0.75 unit loss, but I still believe the Twins can get it done.

Player Props/Player Awards

Shohei Ohtani Under 148.5 Strikeouts (-110)

The Bat X Projection: 115 strikeouts

This one was looking bad until it wasn’t. This bet was never about Ohtani getting injured, it was about the Dodgers slowing him down towards the end of the season to get him ready for the playoffs. He’s still hitting every day in the lineup, but his knee issue appears to be too much for him to get back on the mound. Ohtani has 95 strikeouts right now, so the 115 projection is assuming he makes three more starts before the season is up. He has yet to throw a bullpen since July 21st, and as of now, there is no timetable for him to return. Based on what the Dodgers are putting out there about him, and what the projection says, I think it’s fair to project this as a 2.5 unit winner.

Dylan Cease AL CY Young (+1200)

BetMGM Line: -115

The Bat Projection: Dylan Cease wins the CY Young

I wrote this article on April 26th, explaining why I thought Cease to win the AL Cy Young at +1200 was mis-priced. At the time, I was arguing against Skubal, but now it’s a two-horse race, with Cam Schlittler right behind him at -105. Drew Rasmussen and Sonny Gray deserve some love, but they both sit at +3000 or higher, so it’s somwhat safe to assume it’ll come down to either Cease or Schlittler. After seven shutout innings against the Cubs in his last start, Cease now sits with a 2.28 ERA, just behind Schlittler at 2.26. Schlittler has a 13 inning advantage, but Cease has the higher fWAR, better underlying ERA predictors, and 13 more strikeouts. This is truly a race to the end, but if we are following the rules of the article, Cease has greater than a 50% chance of winning, and he is the current favorite. As of now, I’ll project a six unit win, but this is going to be electric to watch down the stretch.

Bobby Witt Jr. AL MVP (+575)

BetMGM Line: +6600

Fell flat on my face with this one. When I bet it, Bobby Witt Jr. had the lead in fWAR and was projected to clear Yordan by two wins at the end of the season. Then, Bobby got hurt, and Yordan took it up to another level. Bobby isn’t even second in odds, he’s fallen behind Junior Caminero and Ben Rice. Yordan might win the triple crown, but even if he doesn’t, he’s currently -1000 to win MVP. Tracking this as a clear loss of one unit. But technically, it’s not over yet (dilusional).

Don Kelly NL Manager of the Year (+1500)

BetMGM Line: +600

Plenty of value since we bet this, as the Pirates manager sits tied for fourth in odds with Cubs manager Craig Counsell, behind Torey Louvullo of the Diamondbacks, Pat Murphy of the Brewers, and Walt Weiss of the Braves. I’m actually shocked he’s this high, but it makes some sense. The reason I bet this was if Don Kelly led the Pirates to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, he’d be heavily considered. That seems to still be the case, but the Pirates are in last place at the moment. A lot has to go our way for this to end up a winner, I’m counting it as a 0.75 unit loss.

Skip Schumaker AL Manager of the Year (+1800)

BetMGM Line: +3000

Both of my manager of the year bets will be tracked as losses in this article, but for this one, I’m surprised the line is as high as it is. For Kelly, I think it should be closer to +1000, but for Skip, I think +2000 is a fair price. If the Rangers, Yankees, and Guardians win their division, I believe Skip has a great shot. That said, that parlay likely doesn’t hit, hence the price. Still not technically out of it, but it’s still going to be tracked as a 0.75 unit loss.

Shohei Ohtani RBI Leader (+1400)

BetMGM Line: Entire Market Not Listed

Bat X Projection: 34 RBI’s (Most in MLB)

The Bat X projects Ohtani to record the most RBIs the rest of the way, however, it doesn’t mean a whole lot when he trails CJ Abrams by 18 RBI. The Bat X has Abrams finishing with 25 additional RBIs, which would mean he will finish with more than Ohtani. Yordan Alvarez is projected for 32 more, and he has 86 RBI. So, if this bet was solely from now until the end of the season, we’d be in good shape. But it’s not; pretty safe to mark this as a 0.5 unit loss, but it ain’t over until it’s over!

Pending: Texas Rangers AL Pennant (+1400)

BetMGM Line: +1400

The Bat X Projection: (+800)

Another one you can grab now, as the Bat X projects they win the ALCS 11.2% of the time, while BetMGM’s line implies they have a 6.67% chance of winning the pennant. In a wide open AL, the Rangers could do it, but it’s anyone’s game. I’m not gong to mark this as a win or a loss yet, as this article is only focusing on the regular season. We will definitely re-visit this one once the playoffs begin, and my hope is the Rangers are in there.

Summary

Based on the projections at this current moment, we are projected to win 23.26 units. Like I said earlier, take this number with a grain of salt as anything could happen down the stretch, but with about 45 games left on the season, it does give us a decent baseline for what we could expect.

This is assuming Cease wins the Cy Young, but at the same time, it’s assuming the rest of the longshots lose, and none of the division bets hit, even if they show value at their current prices. If the Rockies do win 65 games, that would be a 5.25 unit swing in our direction. I’m proud that all six win totals are on pace, but I’m dissapointed that the majority of the longshots look like losers. Regardless, it’s been an absolute blast following these all year, and it should be yet another profitable MLB futures season.

Reminder: all of these picks are tracked on my free Pikkit profile, and I have begun to release my NFL futures as well. Here is the link to download the free bet tracking app, and if you use code: JUSTBASEBALL when you sync your sportsbook, you’ll win anywhere from $3-100.