The Seattle Mariners Won’t Win the AL West, Someone Else Will

Remember the last time everyone agreed on something? That was awesome. We all placed the same bet, and everyone walked away with extra cash in their pockets.

That sentence has probably never been said before, which explains why the Las Vegas Strip is glowing bright enough to blind you with all those gold-plated buildings.

Coming into the season, the baseball world collectively decided the Seattle Mariners were winning the American League West. You could have asked the sharpest baseball minds alive, or 10 random people off the street, and nine out of 10 from either group would’ve told you the Mariners were going to cruise to another division title.

Now my gambling spidey senses are tingling.

Cal Raleigh is off to an abysmal start and just landed on the IL. The rotation has started to crack. And even with Julio Rodríguez having arguably the best start of his career, the Mariners are sitting two games under .500.

But this wager isn’t about what’s happening on May 14. It’s about what these teams will look like in September. Futures betting is about identifying who projects to be better moving forward, not who happens to be hot or cold right now.

And for me, it’s not the A’s.

They’ve been a fun story, but there are too many holes to confidently buy into them winning this division. The bullpen, defense, starting rotation, and baserunning all grade out below average. It makes perfect sense that they own a negative run differential despite a winning record. They’ve overperformed early, and that profile usually crashes back to earth over a full season.

It’s definitely not the Astros, who look broken right now.

And it’s certainly not the Angels, who might just be the worst team in baseball.

It’s the Texas Rangers.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Watching this offense can feel painful at times. Half their games turn into a waiting simulator for Josh Jung to come to the plate and provide an ounce of hope. The Rangers rank 21st in wRC+ and 26th in OPS, but I genuinely believe this is the absolute floor for their offense.

Everything starts with Corey Seager, who simply is not going to finish the season with a .638 OPS. He’s still hitting the ball hard and at ideal angles, but nothing is landing. The swing-and-miss is up, which is completely out of character for him, and that’s the kind of thing I’m betting eventually corrects itself. Once Seager heats up, this lineup suddenly looks a lot different.

Then there’s Wyatt Langford, who’s expected back in June and gives the lineup another major boost. Josh Smith hit a snag during rehab, but he should return around that same timeframe as well. Those two alone raise the floor offensively, and I also expect Texas to be one of the most aggressive teams at the deadline.

For some reason, people forget how aggressive this front office is. Nobody thought they’d trade for MacKenzie Gore until they did. Nobody expected them to swap Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo either. Chris Young has consistently shown he’s willing to make bold moves, whether through trades or free agency, to improve this roster.

And honestly, they don’t even need to become an elite offense. They just need to hit enough because the pitching is already there.

While everyone waits for Jacob deGrom to break down, he’s busy looking like a Cy Young contender again. Nathan Eovaldi dealt with some side tightness recently, but he’s expected to make his next start. Gore’s 3.95 SIERA suggests better days are ahead, while Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter have been more than capable at the back of the rotation.

Then there’s the bullpen, which ranks first in ERA and should soon get two massive reinforcements in Chris Martin and Robert Garcia.

When it comes to public projection systems, the majority, at least, show some value for the Rangers. PECOTA gives the Rangers a 34.8% chance to win the division, which implies roughly +187 odds. ATC projects them at 31.7% (+216 implied). OOPSY sits at 26.7% (+275 implied).

But the projection system I trust most for futures betting is THE BAT X, and it’s by far the most bullish on Texas, giving them a 47.6% chance to win the AL West, which essentially implies they should be closer to +110.

Meanwhile, according to BetMGM, roughly 90% of both the tickets and the money are on the Mariners to win the division.

Just that alone has me believing the Mariners fall short, but looking under the hood has me confidently saying they fail to win this division.

The Rangers are undervalued, the market is too low on their offense, and in my opinion, they’re the best bet to win the American League West.

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