Can the Dodgers Afford to Sign Skubal Before the Lockout?

On August 1, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers faced off against the Boston Red Sox. Having lost the first game of their weekend series the day prior, the Dodgers looked to put themselves back into the win column that Saturday evening. 

The Red Sox jumped out to an early lead thanks to a first-inning home run from Ceddanne Rafaela, but the Dodgers answered in the second inning with two runs of their own. Then, the Red Sox tied the game in the top of the third inning when Rafaela hit his second home run of the game.

Despite recording ten hits over the course of the game, the Dodgers went on to lose with a score of 3-2. They dropped the next game as well, culminating in a series sweep for the Red Sox and setting the Dodgers’ season record at 69-43.

However, as frustrated as Dodgers fans may have been watching their team fall short that Saturday night, few were vocal about it. This is because halfway through the game, MLB insider Jeff Passan fired off a shot heard round the world.

After months of speculation, it had actually happened. No matter the wealth of talent the Dodgers had already accumulated, they had finally collected the last Infinity Stone needed to complete their gauntlet: Tarik Skubal was a Dodger. Yet, it mattered not.

A relentless Milwaukee Brewers squad, fueled by an insatiable hunger to hoist their franchise’s first-ever World Series banner, swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. They have since gone up 3-1 over the Tampa Bay Rays, who are fighting to bring the same vision to reality for their city.

Now, the Dodgers have a decision to make. Skubal is projected to sign a massive deal in the offseason, and the Dodgers’ payroll is already bursting at the seams.

With a long winter ahead, potentially made longer by ongoing CBA negotiations resulting in an extended lockout, what will factor into the Dodgers’ pursuit of Skubal’s service long-term?

Down the Stretch

For starters, it is worth taking a look at how Skubal performed for the Dodgers following the trade.

In 10 starts for the Boys in Blue, Skubal posted a 2.61 ERA over 62 innings. He notched 70 strikeouts while allowing 13 walks and four home runs. 

Skubal recorded his signature performance of this stretch on his final start of the year against the San Francisco Giants, striking out 10 batters over seven scoreless frames. Notably, he allowed just three hits and did not walk a batter, facing just 23 batters throughout the outing. 

Dodgers fans would understandably love to see him back in Los Angeles in 2027 and beyond. The southpaw has been considered one of, if not the best pitchers in baseball over the past few years, with back-to-back AL Cy Young wins in 2024 and 2025 to back it up. 

Another factor in wanting Skubal to return is the package of prospects the Dodgers sent to the Detroit Tigers in the trade. Both outfielder Zyhir Hope and starting pitcher River Ryan have enormous potential. 

In particular, Hope has seen a meteoric rise through top prospect lists in recent years. He put up a .287/.367/.513 line with 29 homers and 26 stolen bags across 124 games in Double-A last year. Ryan has spent much of the past few years recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he should be a significant part of the Tigers’ pitching staff in the coming seasons.

Now that the season has come to a close, this prospect package is somewhat of a sunk cost for the Dodgers. The intent was to give themselves the best chance at a three-peat, and Skubal did just that. It just didn’t pan out as they had hoped. 

Such is the high-risk, high-reward nature of trade deadline splashes. For Dodgers general manager Andrew Friedman, he now has the tall task of seeing whether they can get a bit more return on their investment in the offseason.

Sticker Shock

In The Athletic, Jim Bowden predicted that Skubal’s contract will fall somewhere between $350 million to $500 million. His agent, Scott Boras, is highly recognized for his clients’ high-profile contracts. Given Skubal’s profile, he seems primed to shoot for the moon this offseason.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto sports the largest guaranteed contract for a pitcher in MLB history at $325 million. As for average annual value (AAV), Zack Wheeler’s 3-year, $126 million deal in 2025 sits at $42 million per year. Bowden expects Skubal to break both of these records.

The Dodgers have immense financial resources. However, a Skubal signing might test the limits of just how much they can leverage those resources.

In 2027, the Dodgers already owe seven individual players over $25 million in luxury tax salary. Their projected luxury tax payroll stands at a whopping $384,757,413 – the highest in MLB.

By this estimate, the Dodgers would land nearly $78 million over the top luxury tax threshold ($307 million). This assumes that they make no changes to their roster, but still. As a result, the Dodgers’ tax bill is projected to land at $126,933,154. The bill is massive in its own right, but a Skubal contract would nearly double it.

Based on how long the Dodgers have remained over the luxury tax, and by how much, they would owe 110% of Skubal’s luxury tax salary in additional tax. Say Skubal were to sign a 9-year, $405 million contract. At an AAV of $45 million, that would push the Dodgers’ tax hit for this hypothetical deal to $94.5 million. For one year!

That means that, in this same scenario, their total tax hit would jump all the way to $221.4 million. For reference, that would be a larger commitment than current payroll allocations for 22 out of 30 MLB teams in 2027. 

The Dodgers’ payroll allocations already sit over $370.5 million for next year. That means that the Dodgers would owe nearly $592 million to just payroll and luxury tax payments. Needless to say, either the Dodgers would tighten their margins, or something would have to change.

Not Quite Tetris

In order for the Dodgers to keep Skubal on the roster comfortably, they’ll likely have to move some players.

Looking at their current contracts, the Dodgers will clear over $77.1 million in luxury tax salary in 2029. The year after that, they are set to move on from another $82.4 million. This can provide the room they’re looking for in a long-term deal for Skubal, but only after a few years.

The Dodgers could trade players set to become free agents in 2029 or 2030 as a remedy. This would allow them to tap into some of their upcoming payroll flexibility early. It would also allow the Dodgers to further reinforce their organization with more young talent in return.

One such example would be Tyler Glasnow, owed $27.3 million next year. He would fetch a strong return, and is the highest-paid player aside from Kyle Tucker, who will become a free agent by 2030. 

The hometown kid has pitched well for the Dodgers, albeit for a limited amount of innings. The Dodgers may be reluctant to move a frontline arm like Glasnow, as they tend to value starting pitching depth. 

However, Teoscar Hernández is a player the Dodgers could move off of. He’s owed nearly $20 million next year, and would likely still attract interest around the league. Plus, it would give the Dodgers some needed flexibility in their outfield – room for top prospect Josue De Paula to get regular reps.

These two are the most likely candidates. Meanwhile, Tanner Scott, Edwin Díaz, or the aforementioned Tucker could wind up on the block if the Dodgers feel they need to get creative.

So, Can the Dodgers Bring Him Back?

As of now, the Dodgers are unlikely to retain Skubal.

We still don’t know what could happen with the upcoming CBA negotiations. If a salary cap is agreed upon without an adjustment period of some kind, signing Skubal could force them to cut payroll at a position of incredibly low leverage.

The Dodgers likely want to avoid being put into this position. Hence, they would want to sign Skubal after a new CBA is ratified. However, Skubal has the opposite incentive.

If Skubal waits until after a new CBA is ratified, that decision could significantly impact his potential earnings. After all, MLB’s salary cap proposal has been the focal point of negotiations for over a year. As such, he is likely to want to sign prior to the beginning of the impending lockout.

If the Dodgers want to keep Skubal, they will have to be bold, and they will have to act quickly. Dodgers starter Blake Snell had already begun his recruiting pitch directly following their NLCS exit. 

“I just said, he can’t leave me, especially on these terms. The goal is to win a World Series, and we weren’t able to do that… I would love nothing more than for him to be back,” Snell told Jack Harris at The California Post. 

It would not be a surprise to see Skubal sign elsewhere. Still, it also should not surprise folks if he returns to Los Angeles. So long as Skubal has not signed with another team, the Dodgers will remain in play. Skubal has spoken fondly of his time with the Dodgers organization, and could easily be motivated to come back. 

The onus will be on the Dodgers’ front office to find a way to make it happen – if they can.