Top 10 Players Hitting Arbitration for the First Time

Fellow Just Baseball writer Zach Cioffi recently published 31 excellent articles covering every player eligible for arbitration this year, breaking them down by team.

Today, we’ll go over the top 10 players entering arbitration for the first time in their careers and what they’ve accomplished this year and throughout their careers.

T-No. 10 Masyn Winn ($4,000,000)

If you like a defensively sound shortstop, Masyn Winn is your guy.

He was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the second round of the 2020 draft and made his major league debut in the second half of the 2023 season. He’s been the Cardinals’ primary shortstop over the last few years, but his numbers have been mixed.

Now four seasons into his career, Winn has proven to be one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, earning a Gold Glove in 2025. However, his offensive production has never really taken off.

This past season, he posted 19 Outs Above Average (99th percentile) and featured a cannon for an arm, averaging 94.4 mph on his throws (96th percentile). Winn’s defense was worth 17 runs of value, putting him in the 99th percentile. That mark also tied his career best, which he first achieved in 2025.

Winn still hasn’t managed to put together a strong offensive season, making it especially important for him to continue playing elite defense.

Across 532 plate appearances this year, he hit .232 with a .625 OPS, along with 21 doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 56 runs batted in.

At least he has good plate discipline, chasing pitches outside the zone just 24% of the time (85th percentile) while drawing walks at an average 9% clip.

Winn is still only 24 years old and has plenty of time to improve his offensive abilities.

T-No. 10 Miguel Vargas ($4,000,000)

Don’t look now, but Miguel Vargas was shockingly one of the best hitters in the majors this year. After putting together a solid semi-breakout season in 2025, his first with the Chicago White Sox, he continued to build on that success this year and posted some monster numbers.

Vargas originally signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 2017 and ranked as high as their fifth-best prospect during his 2022 major league debut season. The only problem was that he couldn’t seem to figure things out during his two-and-a-half seasons in Los Angeles.

When people talk about how a change of scenery can really help a player, Vargas is a great example. He was traded to the White Sox in July 2024 as part of a three-team deal that also involved the St. Louis Cardinals.

During his time with the Dodgers, he was worth 0.0 bWAR and put up a measly .201/.294/.364 slash line. Since joining the White Sox, he’s been worth 6.2 bWAR while posting a much-improved .227/.328/.411 slash line.

Even though his overall slash line with the White Sox still doesn’t look great, that’s largely because he didn’t fully break out until this year. Vargas was named an All-Star for the first time in 2026, and it was well deserved.

He played in 159 games this year, logging 704 plate appearances in the process. Vargas proved to be one of the more exciting hitters in the league, finishing with 31 doubles, one triple, 33 home runs, and 93 runs batted in. He also posted a .250 batting average and an .837 OPS.

If Vargas wasn’t already on your radar, he should be now.

No. 9 Michael Busch ($4,150,000)

Michael Busch, much like Vargas, started his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers but was traded not long after making his debut. After appearing in just 27 games with the Dodgers in 2023, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs the following offseason in January 2024.

Busch’s numbers weren’t great with the Dodgers, although his sample size was very small. However, he turned on the jets once he settled in with the Cubs. In three seasons with Chicago thus far, Busch has managed at least 25 doubles, 20 home runs, and 65 runs batted in each season. He’s proven to be very consistent and reliable at the dish.

He really made his presence felt offensively in 2025 when he put together the best season of his young career. Busch featured elite pop in his bat, mashing 25 doubles, five triples, and 34 home runs while driving in 90 runs. He also posted career bests with a .261 batting average and .866 OPS. His elite performance was worth 4.5 bWAR.

After Busch’s offensive surge in 2025, he unfortunately took a step back in 2026. He was still an above-average bat and put up solid numbers, but his performance wasn’t quite as good as his 2025 showing.

He played in 160 of the Cubs’ 162 games this year while making 710 trips to the plate. Busch hit .242 with a .745 OPS, totaling 27 doubles, two triples, 20 home runs, and 77 runs batted in.

Even with some regression in 2026, Busch is still one of the more dominant offensive first basemen in the majors. You can expect to see him in the lineup day in and day out — staying healthy and consistent has been one of Busch’s best qualities.

No. 8 Andrew Abbott ($4,285,000)

Andrew Abbott’s performance took a big hit this season after coming off an excellent 2025 All-Star campaign in which we saw him break out. After posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last year while being worth 5.4 bWAR, his numbers dropped off a cliff, resulting in a 4.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.4 bWAR in 2026.

Essentially, he just finished the worst season of his four-year career after seemingly establishing himself as an excellent starting pitcher last year. Abbott can still return to his old self, but it was surprising to see such a sudden drop-off in production this year.

At its core, Abbott’s regression came down to allowing more home runs, issuing noticeably more walks, and striking out fewer opponents. Another key difference this year was that he got hit a lot harder.

In 2025, batters managed just an 87.8 mph average exit velocity (84th percentile) against him, along with an excellent 33.7% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile). Both metrics declined this year, with his average exit velocity climbing to 89.7 mph (21st percentile) and his hard-hit rate increasing to 38.7% (45th percentile).

That’s just a brief summary of what happened, but it only scratches the surface of Abbott’s shocking decline. If you look at his Baseball Savant page, what was red last year has turned mostly blue and gray.

Hopefully, Abbott can return to form in 2027 and help Chase Burns anchor the Reds’ starting rotation.

No. 7 Bryan Woo ($4,400,000)

Bryan Woo, much like Abbott, also took a noticeable step back this year, but his underlying metrics held firm for the most part. He was also named an All-Star for the first time in 2025, a season in which he broke out and finished fifth in American League Cy Young voting.

Woo is part of a Seattle Mariners rotation that features six homegrown starters, alongside Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Kade Anderson, Emerson Hancock, and Bryce Miller. It’s been amazing to see the amount of pitching talent the Mariners organization has been able to churn out.

Revisiting Woo specifically, he just wrapped up a down season, posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 30 starts and 173 innings. The good thing is that his underlying metrics are still solid, and he’s proven to be an incredibly valuable commodity. Run value has been on Woo’s side for the majority of his career.

This season, Woo was worth 19 pitching run value (94th percentile), 15 fastball run value (95th percentile), 6 offspeed run value (92nd percentile), and -2 breaking run value (30th percentile), saving the worst for last.

It’s also worth noting that Woo may have been a bit unlucky this year, as evidenced by his 3.68 expected ERA and career-best 3.25 FIP. That low FIP is largely due to the fact that he rarely gives up free passes, walking opponents at just a 5.5% clip (93rd percentile).

No. 6 Cade Smith ($4,700,000)

The Cleveland Guardians lost their dominant closer, Emmanuel Clase, last year due to a gambling scheme, but the team hasn’t felt much of a difference with Cade Smith stepping up to become one of the best relievers in the sport.

After making his major league debut during the 2024 season, Smith has continued to dominate and has proven to be a workhorse out of the bullpen. He owns a career 2.26 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, which are both spectacular, but his 2026 campaign was his best yet.

This season, Smith led all of Major League Baseball with 60 games finished while tying Rays closer Bryan Baker for the MLB lead with 41 saves. His 2.9 bWAR was excellent, topping his previous career high of 2.4, which he set during his rookie season in 2024.

Smith pitched in 69 games this past season, logging 74 innings while posting a 1.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. His efforts were enough to earn him his first career All-Star selection.

So far in the Guardians’ postseason run, Smith has been nearly untouchable, giving up just two hits while walking one. He’s allowed only one run across nine innings of work, with that lone run coming on a home run. His excellent postseason performance has translated to a 1.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP.

No. 5 Gavin Williams ($4,900,000)

If you’ve been watching Gavin Williams pitch in the postseason for the Cleveland Guardians, you already know how nasty he is. If you haven’t, make sure to tune in the next time he takes the bump.

So far, Williams has pitched in four playoff games for the Guardians, three of which were starts. He’s been very impressive, striking out 33 batters in 16.2 innings while posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

He’s been great thus far in the Guardians’ postseason run, but that’s just a glimpse of what he accomplished this year. Williams set two new career highs this season, making 32 starts and throwing 184.1 innings.

Williams delivered an excellent season, and you could easily argue that it was his best yet. He posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but the best part was just how nasty and effective his stuff was.

He got batters to chase pitches outside the zone 33.6% of the time (81st percentile) while generating whiffs on an excellent 32.8% of his offerings (94th percentile). Those two metrics help fuel strikeouts, which is why he was able to strike out an incredible 33.2% of opponents (97th percentile).

Williams actually led the American League in strikeouts this season with 248.

Setting aside his outlier 2024 campaign, when Williams posted a 4.86 ERA, he’s otherwise been excellent, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his other three seasons while recording at least 2 bWAR in each.

If Williams can keep this up, he can easily establish himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. He already is, but he has no major awards or All-Star selections to show for it — expect that to change real soon.

No. 4 Hunter Goodman ($5,400,000)

Even though the Colorado Rockies finished with a measly 58-104 record, their offense really wasn’t the problem, and Hunter Goodman played a huge role in the club’s under-the-radar top-10 lineup.

The 27-year-old catcher is four seasons into his major league career and has been named an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He’s become one of the more prominent power bats in the game, mashing 31 home runs in 2025 and 41 this year.

Offense is clearly the most valuable component of Goodman’s game, as he lacks defensive prowess and doesn’t feature great speed. Putting that aside, he played in 138 games this year while posting a .245 batting average and .839 OPS.

Even though he hit a career-high 41 home runs this year, he actually took a step back from his 2025 offensive production. Last year, he posted a career-best .278 batting average and .843 OPS while also setting career highs in hits (150), doubles (28), triples (5), and runs batted in (91).

Circling back to his 2026 performance, Goodman’s power is clearly an established strength, but a more refined approach at the plate could go a long way. He ranked in the bottom seventh percentile or worse in chase rate (40.4%), whiff rate (34%), strikeout rate (30.5%), and walk rate (8%).

If he can clean up his plate discipline while continuing to display elite power, he can take his game to the next level.

No. 3 Taylor Walls ($6,000,000)

Out of all the players mentioned on this list, Walls’ situation is a little different. He has a club option for 2027 but is still eligible for arbitration.

Otherwise, Walls is the pure definition of a defense-first shortstop. Even more so than Winn.

Let’s talk about his offense first before getting into his defensive abilities. Over six seasons, all with the Tampa Bay Rays, Walls has managed a substandard .200/.291/.298 slash line. For quick math, that’s a .589 OPS.

On top of the low batting averages, don’t expect much power from Walls, as he’s never hit more than 18 doubles or eight home runs in a single season. He’s also not going to drive in many runs, with a career-high 38 RBIs coming in 2025.

Now, the best part of Walls’ game is his defense. This season, Walls posted 21 Defensive Runs Saved and has totaled 73 for his career. He was also worth three defensive runs above average, according to FanGraphs, which is exceptional.

Beyond the numbers, Walls’ defense has done him a huge favor, as he posted 3.5 bWAR this year. He’s accumulated 13.4 bWAR over his career, averaging 2.2 per season. That’s pretty impressive considering how much he struggles at the plate.

No. 2 Paul Skenes ($7,000,000)

It was a bit of a surprise this year, but we actually witnessed some regression from Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. He was selected first overall by the Pirates in the 2023 draft out of LSU and made his major league debut the following year in 2024.

Skenes made his presence felt immediately in Pittsburgh, pitching to a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 23 starts. He was named an All-Star, finished third in National League Cy Young voting, and took home National League Rookie of the Year honors. It was a very impressive rookie campaign.

Skenes built on that excellent rookie season by putting together an even better campaign in 2025.

He logged 187.2 innings across 32 starts while posting a major league-best 1.97 ERA and a National League-best 0.95 WHIP. He was named an All-Star once again, took home National League Cy Young honors, and finished sixth in National League Most Valuable Player voting.

Two years into his career, Skenes was mowing down batters and establishing himself as one of the premier aces in the majors.

Things took an abrupt turn in 2026, as Skenes no longer pitched at the level everyone had grown accustomed to seeing. He made 32 starts this year, but his ERA climbed to 3.82, while his WHIP jumped to 1.12.

Skenes was still named an All-Star this year, but it was undoubtedly the worst season of his young career thus far. Hopefully, he can return to his usual dominant self when baseball returns in 2027.

No. 1 Elly De La Cruz ($8,510,000)

Not much explaining to do here, but Elly De La Cruz is one of the best shortstops and overall players in the majors. He put together his best all-around season this year, as evidenced by his career-high 5.6 bWAR, but his underlying metrics also saw major improvements.

This past season, De La Cruz played in 143 games, logging 636 plate appearances in the process. He posted career highs with a .283 batting average, .365 on-base percentage, and .515 slugging percentage.

His power was clearly evident, as he totaled 30 doubles, five triples, and a career-best 30 home runs. Digging even deeper, De La Cruz posted an insane .506 xSLG (96th percentile), a 94.7 mph average exit velocity (100th percentile), a 16.3% barrel rate (98th percentile), and a 53.7% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).

Elite-level power from a 24-year-old.

Putting that aside, ever since De La Cruz joined the Cincinnati Reds in 2023, he’s been one of the most electric players to watch. He brings an all-around package to the table, showcasing elite offense, defense, and speed.

His speed is especially impressive, as he’s already swiped 169 bases through his first four seasons. That averages out to 42 per season. In fact, he stole 67 bases in 2024, leading the majors.

When you’re at the ballpark and De La Cruz happens to be playing, pay attention, because there’s a reason he’s number one on this list.