3 Trends That Will Help the Nationals Contend in 2027

The Washington Nationals sat at 54-52 on July 26 and were just outside the Wild Card picture. That also happens to be the day they made their first of many trades. Instead of buying, however, Washington decided to sell. Curtis Mead, who was in the midst of a career year, was shipped out to Boston for pitcher Connelly Early.

This marked the beginning of the front office’s sell-off and the end of its successful first half. Luis García Jr. and Foster Griffin were moved shortly after, and since July 26, the Nationals went 23-33, falling completely out of the playoff picture.

The Nationals still have plenty to take away from 2026. Continued growth from All-Stars CJ Abrams and James Wood shows that they can be cornerstones to build upon. Cade Cavalli shined in his first full season, and as a whole, the team performed extremely well offensively.

All of these positives from 2026 can be built upon heading into 2027, when the Nationals will hope to make the playoffs for the first time since their magical World Series run in 2019.

1) The Emergence of Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli has been hindered by injuries throughout his professional career, but in 2026, health was on his side, and he was able to put together a great full season. Cavalli posted a 13-5 record with a 3.02 ERA, 200 strikeouts, and 3.7 bWAR. His second half was excellent, going 8-1 with a 1.90 ERA after the All-Star break.

Cavalli’s 200 punchouts tie for the 10th most in MLB, and he had five outings with 10 or more strikeouts, tying for the seventh most in MLB. His addition of a sweeper to his arsenal and his effective knuckle-curve are largely to thank for that. 118 of his 200 strikeouts came from these two pitches.

His knuckle-curve and sweeper are the two most-used pitches in his arsenal to put batters away, at 27% and 29.7%, respectively. They have a combined run value of +15, ranking his breaking run value in the 99th percentile. His sweeper’s run value of +8 is eighth-best, while his knuckle-curve has a +7 run value, ranking sixth-best. Batters hit under .200 against both, with hitters managing just a .115 average against his sweeper.

Cavalli does a lot of what you’d want to see a leader on your staff do. He strikes out batters and limits walks at an above-league-average rate. He forces plenty of ground balls, ranking in the 86th percentile. One aspect he can try to improve heading into 2027 is where he places his fastballs.

He tends to leave his fastballs in the heart of the plate, allowing batters to hit .282 and slug .467 against the pitch. Compared to league average, it doesn’t move or break as much as he’d probably like. Trying to gain more control of that pitch will likely help Cavalli excel in 2027 and beyond.

The Nationals believe Cavalli can be a key part of their future rotation, or even their ace. They rewarded his excellent 2026 season with a four-year, $47 million contract extension that includes a club option for 2031.

2) CJ Abrams Putting It Together

2026 saw CJ Abrams put together a career year offensively, earn his second All-Star selection, and join the exclusive 30/30 club. Abrams slashed .261/.337/.496 with 33 home runs and 5.2 bWAR. His 33 home runs crushed his previous career high of 20, set back in 2024. He’s also driven in 105 runs, the fifth-most in MLB.

His home run, RBI, and stolen base totals are all first among NL shortstops. What’s helped Abrams continue to grow is the changes he’s been making to his stance. He has a much more open stance at the plate in 2026. This allows Abrams to continue to crush the fastball, but it’s now helping him hit breaking balls better than ever.

Last year, Abrams hit .193 and slugged .355 against breaking balls. This year, he hit .239 and slugged .468 while hitting 12 home runs. His run values against breaking balls have increased as well, going from -3 against curveballs in 2025 to +6 in 2026, and from -3 to +4 against sliders. Abrams is pulling the ball in the air more than ever, at 25.3%, also contributing to this power surge.

His baserunning still ranks highly among his peers, sitting in the 92nd percentile. In 2026, Abrams put up +4 baserunning runs and +3 basestealing runs, tied for fourth in MLB. He’s striking out more than ever, which can be expected with a power surge. But he’s also walking more than ever, at 8.8%, just under league average.

One aspect of his game that could be heavily improved, or even changed heading into 2027, is his fielding. Abrams is tied for the third-worst FRV at -12, the second-worst among shortstops. His 20 errors are the fifth-most in MLB.

The Nationals have been playing Abrams at second base over the last month of the season, where he’s played much better. In 94 innings, he’s committed zero errors and has an OAA of 0, much better than his -17 at shortstop.

3) Great Offensive Team

As a whole, the Nationals were one of the best offensive teams in 2026. In numerous offensive categories, Washington ranked in the top 10.

Home runs	runs per game	stolen bases	slugging %	hits
208 (6th)	5.06 (3rd)	178 (1st)	.422 (3rd)	1347 (7th)

If you didn’t know their record beforehand, you’d think this would be a playoff-contending team. Their runs per game are just under the Cubs and Brewers and are above the Dodgers and Yankees. They steal better than anyone else, 14 more than the second-place Rays.

James Wood continued to grow in 2026, slashing .267/.389/.506 and putting up 3.7 bWAR, all career bests. His 30 home runs are one shy of his 2025 total, while his batting run value of +27 easily passes his +19 in 2025. Wood’s wRC+ of 142 is a career best as well and is ninth-best in MLB. He’s one of the best at drawing walks as well; his 101 are tied for the fifth-most in MLB.

Wood is continuing to grow into one of the best hitters in the game and someone the Nationals will love to consider a cornerstone. Taking one look at his Baseball Savant hitting stats, you see why.

Daylen Lile, like Abrams, saw a big jump in power this year as well, going from nine last year to 22 in 2026. His 1.9 bWAR is fourth on the team among position players as well. While Nasim Nuñez struggles with the bat, he excelled on the bases. His 49 stolen bases led MLB and broke the Nationals’ single-season record.

The elite baserunners the Nationals had in 2026 are another key piece to their offensive success. Abrams, Wood, Lile, Nuñez, Jacob Young, and Dylan Crews are all elite baserunners. All six of them rank well above average in either baserunning value, sprint speed, or both.

Abrams, Crews, Nuñez, and Young all rank in the 84th percentile or better for baserunning value, providing +16 runs of value. Wood ranks in the 75th percentile, providing +1 run of value, and Lile adds +1 of his own. Crews, Lile, Nuñez, and Young all rank in the 92nd percentile or higher for sprint speed.

Even with all of these positives for the offense, there’s still improvement to be had. Besides Abrams and Wood, the rest of the players mentioned are all below league average in batting run value. While Nuñez has been the best base stealer this year, he’s also one of the worst offensive players in MLB. His -25 batting run value is second-worst in MLB, and his 52 wRC+ is the worst in MLB among players with at least 450 plate appearances.

Crews still needs to prove he can provide offensively at the major league level. Lile, while he had a nice power increase, had a down year offensively besides that.

You’d like to see Jacob Young improve just a bit more offensively as well. His 95 wRC+ was a career best, but still sits below league average. He’s still one of the best defenders in the game, as he’s shown over the past two seasons. If Young can improve to just about average, or even slightly above, his value will increase even more.

Abrams and Wood are going to be their cornerstones offensively. Cavalli is who they believe is going to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Now, the Nationals have to improve upon that, whether that be in-house or by going out on the market. They aren’t too far from contending for a postseason spot.