Red Sox vs. Yankees: Wild Card Series Preview

For the second year in a row, and the third time since 2021, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees play each other in the Wild Card Series.

The most storied rivalry in sports, with countless heavyweight postseason bouts, gets up to three more opportunities to wow the baseball world.

The season series went the way of the Bronx Bombers, 7-6. However, the Red Sox began their historic midseason turnaround with a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park at the end of June. That series started a 32-5 stretch for Boston, flipping its record from 32-46 to 64-51.

Had it not been for that series in June, who’s to say the Red Sox don’t continue their tailspin into a 100-loss season? In a month where the Red Sox picked up Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow’s options and removed the interim tag from manager Chad Tracy, it’s hard not to go back to that June series as potentially altering the trajectory of the immediate future of the franchise.

That said, the Yankees dismantled the Red Sox in the Bronx in their final matchup of the regular season. With Boston nipping at New York’s heels, the Yankees won three of four, two by way of blowout. That not only gave the Yankees the season series, but it all but sunk the Red Sox’s hopes of hosting the Wild Card Series.

Home-field advantage certainly played a role in New York’s series win last year. After losing Game 1 thanks to Garrett Crochet’s brilliance, the Yankees won a back-and-forth affair in Game 2 before Cam Schlittler ripped the hearts out of Red Sox Nation.

This year is like none other, however. Both teams are predicated on their pitching staffs. While capable hitters exist in their respective lineups, this series promises to be low-scoring.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Payton Tolle vs. Cam Schlittler

• Tolle: 26 GS, 148.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 171 K, 4.1 fWAR

• Schlittler: 33 GS, 193.2 IP, 1.95 ERA, 235 K, 6.2 fWAR

Based on recent history, many have already written off Boston in this one. To be frank, it’s easy to see why. Schlittler made four regular-season starts against the Red Sox this year; he allowed two earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.

While not always in Cy Young form, he prevented runs at an elite level against Boston and held opponents to a .560 OPS.

While Tolle had a great first half, he truly surged in the second. Part of that surge coincided with some second-half struggles from veterans Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. That said, the rookie left-hander made serious noise both with his performance and his antics on the field.

His childlike passion for the game made him a national fan favorite, but his explosive stuff made him a nightmare for the opposition. He made two starts against the Yankees in the regular season: his season debut, where he struck out 11, and during that four-game June series, where he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

Of all the Red Sox starters, he’s got the best chance to go band-for-band with the American League Cy Young favorite. The unfortunate truth, however, is that might not be enough.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 2: Sonny Gray vs. Max Fried

• Gray: 29 GS, 169.0 IP, 2.72 ERA, 149 K, 3.4 fWAR

• Fried: 20 GS, 112.2 IP, 2.80 ERA, 104 K, 3.5 fWAR

This battle between two veterans in an elimination game will be must-see television. For years, Gray became one of the best strikeout savants in baseball; that’s completely changed course in 2026. However, he still had a career year with a 2.72 ERA and 18 wins.

For Fried, it was an unfortunate season of stops and starts. He was dominant when out there, but he made just 20 starts.

Like Schlittler, Fried kept the Red Sox off the board this season. In two starts, Boston hit just .146 against him, scoring one run in 11.2 innings. In five regular-season starts against them since becoming a Yankee, he’s got a 1.50 ERA and a 28.9% strikeout rate.

Back to Gray, he’s not exactly a loved former Yankee. After getting traded there in 2017, he struggled mightily and, at times, found himself out of the rotation entirely. To make matters worse for him, he talked ad nauseam after getting to Boston about how much he didn’t want to ever play in the Bronx. That agitated a fan base that already didn’t like him.

Gray kept the Yankees at bay this season in two starts, posting a 1.98 ERA. In one start, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, striking out nine. Nine strikeouts was a threshold he reached just thrice in 29 starts this season.

Gray eats up innings, and with uncertainty surrounding the calf of outfielder Aaron Judge, he’s going against a potentially depleted Yankees lineup.

Fried potentially faces the same benefit, though to a lesser extent, as Boston will be operating with Willson Contreras battling a hand injury sustained on a hit by pitch.

Advantage: Coin flip

Game 3 *IF NECESSARY: Ranger Suarez vs. Gerrit Cole

• Suarez: 28 GS, 3.22 ERA, 148.1 IP, 140 K, 3.8 fWAR

• Cole: 22 GS, 3.61 ERA, 127.0, 131 K, 2.1 fWAR

If this series goes the distance, this is a tremendous position for Boston to be in. One, because they’ve already knocked off one starter who gives them fits. Two, because they get the advantage of throwing one of the best postseason arms this century in a winner-take-all game.

Suarez got roughed up by the Yankees in these teams’ final matchup of the season, but don’t let that distract you from just how good he was in 2026. Had it not been for an injury in his final start of the first half, this southpaw would have pitched in the All-Star Game. Then, after a few rough ones fresh off the Injured List, he posted a 1.09 ERA in September.

Suarez has a 1.48 ERA in his postseason career, composed of eight starts and 11 total appearances. The Red Sox, though perhaps a bit uncomfortable in doing so, paid him to win games like this. At times, he was the ace of this pitching staff; the man who stepped up, in addition to the aforementioned Gray and Tolle, when 2025 Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet went down in April.

But in big markets, what happens over 162 is trivial compared to what happens in October.

For the Yankees, they made a difficult call deciding who gets the ball for this one, should it be necessary. On one hand, Boston is vulnerable against southpaws. On the other, Cole is their free-agent prize from several years ago, delivering time and time again on the big stage.

Rodón possesses more strikeout ability at this stage of their careers, and less homer-proneness than Cole. However, starting a lefty might actually put forth Boston’s best lineup in a winner-take-all game.

Advantage: Red Sox

Key Storylines to Watch: New York Yankees

If No Judge, or Minimal, Where Does Offense Come From?

Since June 1, the Yankees are tied for 26th in wRC+ with the Athletics. In that span, only three Yankees exceed the 100 league-average threshold. Those three are Ben Rice, Spencer Jones, and Luis García Jr. Only Rice exceeds 120, while Jones is the only other one above 110.

Between the likes of Tolle and Gray, the Yankees get varying looks in Games 1 and 2. An explosive southpaw who gives everyone fits, including them — they already struggle against hard-throwing lefties — and a crafty right-hander, whom they also struggle against.

This series likely is low-scoring all around, barring unforeseen circumstances. But someone still has to score to win. If it’s not Judge, at least not several times a game, who is it going to be? It’s a lot to put on the young first baseman Rice, who is certainly talented enough of a hitter to make it happen, but he’s also only one person.

With that in mind, the Yankees do have five hitters logging at least a 120 wRC+ in September, including Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger. Those two pose threats in several areas to opposing pitchers, so them being right in this series could prove the difference.

Can They Win the Race to the Bullpen?

The Yankees had the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball this year at 3.15. Only problem? The lone team ahead of them is the Red Sox at 2.99. Sure, the difference is negligible, but it shows Boston is on the Yankees’ playing field, especially in the back end.

Going to the bullpen with a lead almost assuredly puts the game on ice for either team. Both teams are likely undermanned in the lineup, but have their full array of arms — especially if Boston gets Crochet and Tanner Houck back for the postseason.

The Yankees have the benefit of home-field advantage and the lefty power bats who can use the short porch to their advantage. Stringing hits together in Judge’s prolonged absence was largely an issue, but one that seemed largely rectified in September. Can that continue? Time will tell.

Key Storylines to Watch: Boston Red Sox

Can Their Struggling Outfielders Figure it Out?

The Red Sox entered this season with a logjam of outfielders. That problem, in theory, was a nice one to have, as they had four legitimate MLB contributors. However, none of those four are going into the postseason on a hot stretch.

Since September 1, Roman Anthony leads that group with a 101 wRC+. But beyond Anthony’s moderate success, Wilyer Abreu has a 71 wRC+ for the month, while Jarren Duran has a 65.

While Ceddanne Rafaela has a 59, he’s only managed 13 plate appearances in September due to a quad strain, followed by a hamstring cramp that took him out of his return to the lineup. How healthy is he?

The defense in the Boston outfield is sublime, among, if not the best in the league. But in a lineup without a fully healthy Contreras, someone has to step up. Similar to the Yankees without a fully healthy Judge, Boston has the talent to do it, but can it execute?

How Healthy Are the Returning Starters in Their Bullpen?

Houck looked sharp in his rehab assignment, but Crochet didn’t have one at all. He’s thrown a couple of live batting practice sessions, giving him some up-and-downs before the season ends. But throwing in an empty ballpark hardly prepares you for Yankee Stadium.

Crochet’s first live BP saw him hovering around 92 mph, but he ratcheted it up to 96 in his second. Ahead of this past weekend’s nor’easter, the Red Sox sent him down to Fort Myers for one more primer before the playoffs. Time will tell how his body responds and if he can contribute in this series.

Houck, on the other hand, had a full rehab assignment. For a while, it didn’t appear the right-hander had a chance of contributing this season. After undergoing elbow surgery last summer, it was presumed the 30-year-old wouldn’t pitch again until at least the start of 2027.

His velocity wasn’t that of his brief run in 2025, instead hovering in the low-to-mid 90s on the sinker, but he was missing bats and largely limiting damaging contact. In eight innings, he allowed three earned runs, but just one in his final two outings. He also had no strikeouts in his first appearance, but nine in his final three.

He started Game 162 for the Red Sox, allowing three earned runs across three innings. Overall, he looked OK, save for two mistakes to Alex Bregman that landed in the seats.

He’s prepared to give Boston multiple innings, but the jury is still out on how that’ll look in the postseason.

Prediction

There are too many variables in play for Boston to overcome against a Yankees team that’s got a deeper lineup and pitching staff. If the Red Sox snatch one of the first two, they should feel good about Game 3.

However, they’re hitting .163 in September with runners in scoring position with a 43 wRC+. Without a healthy Contreras, they’re counting on the aggregate of Nick Sogard, Trevor Story, and the aforementioned Abreu to pick up the slack behind Anthony in the lineup.

The key for Boston is to keep the Yankees under three runs. On paper, it certainly has the arms to do that. However, between this series being in the Bronx, the Red Sox not having their best hitter this season at full health, and the Yankees running two straight horses who historically dominate them, life is going to be hard for the Red Sox once again this postseason.

Yankees in 2