Payton Tolle’s Case To Be the Red Sox’s Game 1 Starter
Tolle is Boston's best option to face the Yankees in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.
They haven’t clinched a postseason berth yet, but it looks more likely by the day that the Boston Red Sox have a date with the New York Yankees in the Wild Card round again.
This will be the third matchup between these two arch rivals in the Wild Card round since 2021, with each organization winning once. The Red Sox got the best of Gerrit Cole in 2021 at Fenway Park, while the Yankees won two straight elimination games to knock off Boston in the Bronx last year.
This series promises to be low-scoring. These two teams are top three in baseball in staff earned run average. The Yankees have nearly three-quarters of a run lead on the Red Sox among starters, while the two bullpens are separated by 0.01 earned runs per nine.
A lot will be made of how these two staffs line up in a couple of weeks. The first two games for the Yankees, as deep as their pitching staff is, seem destined to be Cam Schlittler in Game 1 and Max Fried in Game 2. However, the Red Sox have serious questions to answer about how they want to line up.
Preparing for this series to go the distance is difficult. If you sweep, you line yourselves up well for Game 1 of the American League Division Series. However, if you get swept, one of your best pitchers may never see the hill.
The conundrum is as follows: Sonny Gray has been their best arm wire-to-wire. Payton Tolle is by far their hottest arm, seeming to get stronger as the season wears on. Ranger Suárez is riding two great starts in a row and is their high-priced free agent with elite postseason pedigree.
But of the three, there’s no question who should pitch opposite Schlittler in Game 1: Tolle.
Stats updated prior to games on September 19.
Game 1 Is a Tone-Setter
The dialogue surrounding Game 1 is that it’s almost a “scheduled loss.” To be frank, it’s hard to argue against the logic. In four starts against Boston this year, Schlittler has a 0.74 ERA, a .174 batting average against, and a 27.3% strikeout rate across 24.1 innings.
Let us not forget the sheer domination he exhibited in Game 3 against the Red Sox last year, either. Across eight innings, he allowed five hits, no runs, and struck out 12.
But the mindset for Boston can’t be that it has no chance of winning. Sure, they’ve been one of the league’s best road teams this year, but the Yankees have the best pitching staff in baseball this year for a reason. By comparison, sure, it’s easier to win against someone not in the Cy Young race. But Max Fried habitually finds himself in the discussion for a reason.
The Red Sox’s mindset should be that runs will be at a premium, so matching the Yankees ace zero-for-zero is paramount. Of the three options, Tolle presents the best opportunity to do so. While Gray has Tolle beat overall in ERA, the Red Sox rookie southpaw is, by far, the hottest arm on the staff.
Since the All-Star break, Tolle has a 2.90 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout-to-walk rate. That ERA drops to 2.53 over his last nine starts. That 2.90 ERA, however, is nearly a third of a run better than Gray’s, and over half a run better than Suárez’s.
Sheer run prevention is the name of the game in this series. Tolle is their best option.
Tolle’s Attitude Is Perfect for the Moment
Every time Tolle speaks, he endears himself to the baseball world even more. But as goofy as he can be in media sessions, he’s all business on the field. Furthermore, he can appreciate the moment he’s in at any given time.
Look no further than his recent start against the Kansas City Royals. Eight pitches, eight strikes, six whiffs, all fastballs. He had the wherewithal to glance at pitching coach Andrew Bailey, grin, lock back in and pick up the final strike of an immaculate inning.
Sure, it’s one pitch in the first inning against a team out of postseason contention, but talk to anybody who’s played, and they’ll tell you how aware they are of when they’re on the brink of something cool. Tolle said as much after the game.
But that moment should tell the world he’s unafraid of going into the Bronx, facing off against Schlittler, and going band-for-band with the likely AL Cy Young.
Tolle clearly cares about what he does, but it’s that somewhat unserious attitude that makes him perfect for the high stakes of setting the tone in a postseason series.
This moment, honestly, seemed set in stone the moment he made his MLB debut last season against Paul Skenes. While any postseason start is high leverage, he’s always finding himself making big starts against the game’s best. He’s always met the moment, and the Red Sox should let him continue that trend this postseason.
The Yankees Struggle Against Hard Fastballs
The Yankees are a deep, talented team even if not all players are at full strength or potential going into October. One area where they struggle, however, is against hard fastballs.
This season, the Yankees have the highest strikeout rate on fastballs 95 mph or harder, to go with the second-worst expected batting average. Only the Chicago White Sox are worse against such fastballs.
They’re even worse this season on hard fastballs thrown by left-handers. Their 33% strikeout rate is the second-highest behind the 61-93 Athletics, while their .191 expected batting average ranks only higher than the Cleveland Guardians.
Tolle isn’t positioned with an elite-level fastball from a velocity standpoint, but it’s comfortably above average. This season, he’s in the 71st percentile with an average fastball of 95.7 mph. Opponents struggle mightily against it as well, hitting just .190 with a .248 expected wOBA and a 30.4% whiff rate.
Tolle throws his four-seam and sinker a combined 68.4% of the time. While that leaves him susceptible to predictability, he varies that look with a cutter that comes in at 88.6 mph on average. He throws that offering at a 19.4% clip.
His strength is his fastball, along with 98th percentile extension. That plays directly into the weaknesses of the Yankees lineup. With Game 1 very much being a tone-setter, there’s no question who the Red Sox should send out there.
Lining It Up After Tolle
Following Tolle, the Red Sox have their two veterans waiting in the wings. Win Game 1, you’ve got two proven performers to help you win one more game to advance. Lose Game 1, you’ve got two experienced professionals tasked with staving off elimination.
The order after Tolle almost doesn’t matter. Could they vary looks and go to Gray to keep the Yankees off the lefty scent? Maybe, but then you potentially run into the same problem of playing with your food. That said, Suárez is much craftier than Tolle, and prone to the hanging breaking ball.
The Yankees have a 99 wRC+ as a team against right-handed pitching, and a 107 against lefties. Gray also took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees back in late June, while Suárez was touched up in his last start against them.
What can be said either way is that having two accomplished veterans to follow the rookie gunslinger is a good position for the Red Sox to be in.
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