Randy Dobnak Has Been a Surprise Story on the 2026 Royals

The Kansas City Royals entered the 2026 season in hopes of writing the wrongs of the 2025 season and recapturing the euphoric feeling they felt the year prior in their surprise run to the ALDS. However, much like last season, the Royals have come up entirely flat this season with a 68-90 record with just a handful of games remaining on the schedule.

A huge reason for this has been injuries all throughout the roster, felt hardest in the starting rotation. Key regular members of the staff, headlined by Cole Ragans as well as Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila have all found their way onto the injured list due to Tommy John surgery.

On top of that, their depth has taken nearly just as many notable hits, with Ryan Bergert and 40-man prospect Ben Kudrna hitting the IL for the same reasons before the season even really started.

This is what has made the band of misfit toys Kansas City has deployed in their place that much more important, none more so than Randy Dobnak.

After acquiring him from the Seattle Mariners for cash considerations in the middle of June, Dobnak seemed like merely a veteran depth piece to help bolster their minor league ranks. However, Dobnak was quickly called upon to fill a void in the Royals’ ailing staff and has not disappointed.

From a surface level perspective, the 31-year-old right-hander looks nothing like an arm that had accumulated just 15 innings of major league work since the conclusion of the 2021 season. Back in a regular MLB starting role for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Dobnak is sporting a very respectable 3.08 ERA.

But perhaps the underlying metrics tell more of a story of just how impactful this once seemingly uninspiring trade could turn out to be for the Royals moving forward.

Randy Dobnak could answer some rotation questions for Royals in 2027

What’s important to note is that Dobnak was not merely a rental name, but rather one that could play a factor in their 2027 depth in what the Royals are hoping will be their official return to postseason contention. This is what makes his surprise rise to reliability all the more welcome.

Now, looking a little deeper than just his ERA, there’s certainly reason to be somewhat wary and chalk his low-3.00s mark up to luck. He hasn’t done a great job limiting base runners with a less than ideal 1.33 WHIP and .257 BAA.

On top of that, his 4.18 FIP being 110 points above his ERA as well as a 26th percentile xERA and fourth percentile xBA, don’t offer much reason for optimism either.

However, just like he wasn’t acquired to be someone to perfectly fill the massive voids left by injured names like Ragans, he also doesn’t need to be the hero he’s been this year – nor should he if they want to compete. The Royals will need to pony up for reinforcements for aging veterans like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo this offseason.

And for that reason, looking even deeper beyond things like his lackluster WHIP and BAA, Dobnak could still be a sight for sore eyes as a key member of this squad.

To date, Dobnak has gone five or more innings in a start 10 times, with six of them consisting of one earned run or less. He’s even turned in a seven-inning start, which shows that he’s at the very least prepared to do one thing the Royals have desperately needed: eat innings.

For starters, a five-pitch arsenal is never a bad thing to work with, and it’s one that’s built off deception.

His four-seam fastball is nothing to write home about, however, it’s only the fourth-most used offering of his pitch mix. The rest of his stuff has movement and fairly good movement offering deception to opposing hitters.

All four of his sinker, sweeper, changeup and slider hold positive vertical drop comparisons to the rest of the league.

Pitch Type	Usage Rate	Vertical Drop (inches)	Comparison vs. Similar Offerings
Sinker	38.8%	41.9	5.4
Sweeper	25.0%	41.3	1.7
Changeup	21.7%	41.5	6.7
Slider	4.9%	31.3	3.7

And as a result, none of his pitches hold an opposing batting average above .300 and four of five have an opposing slugging percentage under .400. Nothing great, but something that inspires hope for a fifth starter or at the very least a serviceable depth arm when the staff gets healthy again.

On top of that, while he may not strike hitters out much, limit walks at an admirable rate or prevent hard contact, he finds ways to be crafty and get the job done elsewhere. He holds a 89th percentile barrel rate of 4.8% and also an 89th percentile groundball rate of 51.7%. If you can’t be other-worldly, at least limit the opportunity for damage, which Dobnak has done to this point.

Now, the rotation won’t be this injured all the time and there are certainly more surefire options than Dobnak. However, when you consider his experience in the bullpen (which could some work as well), perhaps Dobnak projects as more than just a mere injury replacement.

Not bad for an under-the-radar midseason minor league trade.