Can the Cubs Overcome Their Bullpen Come October?

Throughout most of the 2026 season, the Chicago Cubs have displayed the talent to be one of the best teams in baseball. Their group of position players has been the most valuable bunch by a wide margin and has kept the team afloat through pitching injuries with daily offensive and defensive production.

However, there’s only so much they can do, and that has been evident as of late. Over the past few weeks, the offense has been electric. They had a scorching-hot month of August, setting a franchise and National League record for home runs in the month.

Still, they have struggled, posting a 13-17 record over their last 30 games, with most of the issues stemming from the bullpen. Just recently, they were swept in a three-game set in Milwaukee, blowing saves in two of those games.

This has challenged Craig Counsell, who took some heat for sending starter Matthew Boyd out for the eighth inning. He allowed the first two batters to reach, was pulled, and then Ryan Zeferjahn allowed them to score.

They lack really any high-leverage arms, which begs the question: Can a great lineup and solid rotation overcome a bullpen that doesn’t have enough trustworthy arms?

A Championship-Caliber Core

Both the lineup and starting staff have mostly done their jobs up to this point. There have been times when both have had their issues, but all in all, it’s been good stuff from both.

The position players especially stand out. They have combined for the highest wRC+, most home runs, and, most importantly, most runs scored in MLB this year. To go with that, they also top baseball in defensive runs saved, outs above average, and fielding run value. Essentially, Chicago has been both the top offensive and defensive team in the game in 2026.

The starting staff hasn’t been great this year, but after acquiring Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the deadline, they are in much better shape. They stack up around the middle of the pack in ERA, though along with Gausman and Holmes, Matthew Boyd, David Peterson, and even Javier Assad have provided solid innings.

With the production up and down the lineup and things trending in the right direction in the rotation, the Cubs clearly have the bones to contend for a World Series. However, with the production out of the bullpen as of late, that might not be the case.

The Bullpen is Showing Its Cracks

Throughout the bulk of the season, the Cubs dealt with injuries and some poor performance in the bullpen. There were enough guys, though, who stepped up and provided what they needed to win games.

Recently, it’s been a different story. There have been multiple players regressing, and this has been the direct cause of several losses over the past month.

Jacob Webb was one of the best relievers in baseball over the summer. He had a 24-game span where he didn’t surrender a single run. This came after weeks of solid performance leading up to that stretch. Since then, he has appeared in six games, posting a 17.36 ERA and recording three blown saves. He had been their primary ninth-inning guy, but has been in a real funk.

To go along with that, Daniel Palencia, who was used in leverage spots in 2025, has a 9.95 ERA since returning from the injured list three weeks ago. His stuff hasn’t quite looked the same, and he’s induced just two whiffs across his last four outings total.

Finally, Ryan Zeferjahn, who was their lone bullpen addition at the deadline, has a 6.23 ERA across his first 14 games with the team. They have made some tweaks, mainly an uptick in sinker usage, which has shown some promise, but still, it’s less than ideal.

Through all of this, there have been some bright spots. Aaron Civale has been one of them, posting a 1.27 ERA since joining the Cubs in late July. Ryan Rolison has also broken out, posting a 2.84 ERA and covering 57.0 innings this year.

Still, it’s hard to rely on these guys in leverage spots. Once October rolls around, there will be few outings that aren’t high leverage.

What Happens in October?

The next few weeks leading up to the playoffs will be vital for the Cubs. Not only have they yet to fully secure a postseason spot, but they also need to figure out exactly who they can trust once they get there.

Their pitchers will be under a microscope over the remainder of the regular season. Chicago will have to determine who gets playoff starts, but perhaps even more importantly, which relievers Counsell feels comfortable turning to with the season on the line.

The good news is that October baseball allows teams to shorten their pitching staffs. With more off days throughout each series, the Cubs won’t necessarily have to lean as heavily on the back end of their bullpen. Their best arms can pitch more frequently, and starters could potentially be asked to work deeper into games.

That could clear the way for guys like Webb and Palencia to take on bigger roles if they can regain their form. It also allows Civale, Rolison, and whichever relievers emerge over the next few weeks to handle a larger share of the important innings.

It’s not a perfect formula, and Chicago still needs multiple arms to step up. But if they can get their main guys back on track and establish a group of three or four relievers they genuinely trust, the bullpen may not be as debilitating down the road as it looks right now.

Reason to Believe

The struggles of the Cubs’ bullpen are impossible to ignore and are a legitimate cause for concern. Still, there is a path for this team to overcome them.

They don’t need the bullpen to be one of the best in baseball. With an offense capable of taking over games, an elite defense, and a rotation that looks stronger than it did earlier in the season, they simply need their relievers to be good enough.

We’ve already seen the highest of highs and lowest of lows from this group. Webb and Palencia have both shown they can pitch in leverage spots, Civale has emerged as a dependable option, and there is still time for Counsell to figure out which combination gives him the best chance in October.

Whether it ultimately ends their year will depend on whether they can find enough trustworthy arms over the next few weeks to prevent that weakness from outweighing everything else they do so well.