The Rockies Have an Ezequiel Tovar Problem on Their Hands

The 2026 campaign hasn’t been a pretty one for the Colorado Rockies, who are (un)comfortably stuck in a multi-year rebuild. It’s true that as a whole, the team taking the field on a nightly basis is improved upon the one from last season that won just 43 games, but they’ve only got eight games left to at least raise their win total from where it currently sits at 56.

The Rockies haven’t turned in a win percentage above .500 since 2018 when they finished second in the National League West, but there are small reasons for optimism littered around their roster, chief among them being their offense.

While the team as a whole is dead last in wRC+ (91) in all of the major leagues, their starting lineup has six batters with a .750 OPS or higher (min. 300 PA). This is the most they’ve had since 2019, when they had seven such occurrences.

TJ Rumfield, Jake McCarthy, Cole Carrigg, and Kyle Karros have been revelations. Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak are turning in successful seasons once again. Utilityman Willi Castro is just two points away from joining this group in the .750 OPS club as well.

Even on the team’s sporadic good days, one player completely missing from the spotlight is shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, who isn’t being talked about in a positive light much these days.

All stats updated prior to games on Saturday, September 19

Read more

MLB

TJ Rumfield makes early case for a Gold Glove and Rookie of the Year with the Rockies

MLB

Jake McCarthy Is Having a Career Resurgence in Colorado

How Did Ezequiel Tovar Get Here?

It wasn’t so long ago that the Rockies thought they had their next centerpiece at shortstop locked up for the long run. Tovar, who had just wrapped up a decent-but-not-great rookie year (2.5 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR) got locked up to a seven-year, $63.5 million contract extension in March of 2024 and all was looking good for a team looking forward to busting out of a multi-year rebuild.

It’s safe to say that things have not worked out as the Rockies in regards to ending their rebuild and finding their next great shortstop. Tovar’s locked up through the 2030 campaign and has been worth less than a single win above replacement in each of the past two years. Heck, he’s been worth negative wins this year, and is one of MLB’s least valuable players.

In 2024, Tovar’s first year with his shiny new deal, he looked to be on his way to becoming one of the game’s top shortstops. He hit 26 home runs, led the NL with 45 doubles, drove in 78 runs (while scoring 83 of his own), turned in a .763 OPS and a 95 wRC+. Yes, his bat was technically 5% below league-average, but he was a decent run producer and his glove carried the majority of his value.

In that breakout 2024 campaign, Tovar turned in a Fielding Run Value of 15, which was the best amongst shortstops and seventh in the majors. His 15 Outs Above Average were fourth amongst shortstops and 10th in all of baseball. Put it all together and you have a young player earning his first-career Gold Glove Award.

His decent offensive contributions and sterling play on defense resulted in 3.7 fWAR, which landed him 40th in baseball, beating out the likes of Oneil Cruz, Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Adley Rutschman, and Will Smith.

The Rockies undoubtedly felt like they made out like bandits with this deal. They were paying a young and talented player at a premium position under $10 million per year and he was immediately getting to work and rewarding them handsomely.

Unfortunately, Tovar has seen his production on both sides of the ball fall off a cliff ever since.

A Tough Situation For Both Parties

In 2025, at the age of just 23, Tovar made it into 95 games and had a 79 wRC+ with 0.9 fWAR. Oblique and hip injuries kept him off the field, but even when he was playing, the spark wasn’t quite there.

The 2026 campaign hasn’t been much different. Even though he’s been healthy, the numbers are still in an even further decline, and the Rockies are suddenly stuck with a contract that’s looking so much less promising than it once had.

As this season enters its final days, Tovar has just 11 home runs with 42 RBI, a 52 wRC+, and -0.6 fWAR. He has MLB’s lowest wRC+ (next lowest is Jarren Duran, who is 14 points higher than Tovar) and his fWAR is only higher than Salvador Perez, who’s at -1.3. To put it simply, things aren’t looking pretty.

Here’s a look at Tovar’s year-by-year production so readers can visualize how dramatically he’s fallen off.

Tovar’s contract from the Rockies was always pretty low-cost in the grand scheme of things, but it was also significantly backloaded. He was one of baseball’s promising budding stars at an extremely low salary, but he’s only going to get more expensive as he ages.

• 2026 salary: $5,214,286
• 2027 salary: $8,214,286
• 2028 salary: $11,214,286
• 2029 salary: $14,214,286
• 2030 salary: $16,214,286

There’s also a $23 million club option for the 2031 season that comes with a $2.5 million buyout.

Per Spotrac, Tovar is currently MLB’s 21st on MLB’s shortstop contract rankings. That obviously makes his dreadful contributions a bit easier to swallow, but by the time he’s wrapping up his deal, he’ll be much higher than 21st. If he was making that $16.2 million mark this year, he’d be all the way up to 10th.

What’s Behind the Struggles?

While the injuries in 2025 aren’t going to paint the entire picture, they’re at least a part of Tovar’s epic collapse. He told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding in September of last year that his oblique injury forced him to “start from zero” in order to fully recover and get his swing timing back to where he wanted it to be.

As the numbers clearly show, starting from zero took quite a toll on Tovar.

One thing that might be particularly difficult for Rockies fans to swallow is that Tovar has been a significant regression candidate from the get-go. His plate discipline specifically has been dreadful ever since he broke into the league, and while it’s gotten a bit better, it appears that a lot of his luck-based stats have begun to come back down to earth.

In 2024, there was one qualified hitter who was in both the bottom-10 in BB% and top-10 in K% at the same time: Ezequiel Tovar. His 3.3 BB% was second-lowest in baseball and his 28.8 K% landed him ninth in the game (technically tied for sixth if you want to crunch the numbers).

At the time, he was able to cover up his embarrassing sense of pitch recognition and patience at the dish with extra-base hits and a respectable barrel rate. When he got the pitch he was looking for, he did damage. The problem has always been that he has trouble identifying when “his pitch” comes his way.

Tovar is in the second percentile in Chase% after being in the third last year and first the year prior. No batter in baseball swings at more pitches outside of the strike zone than he does, and no batter swings at more pitches inside the strike zone either. Tovar is a swing-machine, and he’s also leading the majors in first-strike percentage.

It doesn’t take a sabermetric genius to figure out that starting at-bats at a disadvantage is setting a player up for failure.

Tovar has also been a virtual black hole when it comes to hitting four-seam fastballs and sliders. His -14 Run Value against four-seamers is above only Duran and Masyn Winn, and his inability to hit the heater basically hands opposing pitchers a roadmap in how to get him out.

Pitchers know that they can throw their four-seamers wherever they want and whenever they want in the count and Tovar is going to swing early, swing often, and refuse to draw a walk. The directions couldn’t be clearer, and Tovar is getting punished for it.

It seems that the 2024 version of Tovar proved that his specific skillset can work in today’s game, but the margin for error is extremely thin. His loss of feel for hitting fastballs, the pitch he’s always seen the most throughout his career, seems to have put him from ever-so-slightly in the green to well into the red.

Tovar’s Defense No Longer Provides the Safety Net

Even if his bat were to decline, it seemed to be a reasonable assumption that Tovar’s glove will still make him a valuable player.

His 13 Fielding Run Value in 2023 and 15 FRV the next season cemented his name near the top of the list when looking at MLB’s best defensive shortstops.

However, that number fell to 3 in the injury-shortened 2025 campaign, and it currently sits all the way down at 1. All of a sudden, you’re looking at a player who at one point resided in the 99th percentile in OAA and 98th in FRV, to 46th in OAA and 51st in FRV.

The fall-off has been dramatic, and it’s not outlandish to say that the pressure Tovar is putting on himself to get going at the plate has simply affected how he plays his position in the field. With his bat completely falling off of a cliff, he’s spent so much of his time trying to improve that aspect of his game, that he’s seen his production with the glove decline as well.

Losing his “safety net” has quickly turned Tovar into one of the least valuable players in today’s game. However, it’s hard to argue that even if he did find his footing on defense, his complete inability to swing a bat is still wholly unacceptable.

Competition for Playing Time

There’s nothing wrong with a little bit of competition to try and force a player to find that next gear and step his game up.

As this year wraps up, the Rockies have had five different players make at least two appearances at shortstop. Obviously Tovar tops the list by a wide margin, but the team has at least started the process of looking elsewhere for somebody to step up.

Willi Castro, a career-long utilityman who isn’t tied down to a single position, has received 25 games at the position, but he’s not a long-term solution. The 29-year-old has -2 OAA and -1 Defensive Runs Saved at the spot this year and has been a rough watch there over the course of his career. He’ll return to the roster next year, but is better utilized elsewhere on the diamond. Still, he’s a good “break glass in case of emergency” option.

Ryan Ritter, who made it into 16 big league games this year for the Rockies, is an intriguing option. The 25-year-old has yet to find a whole lot of success at the game’s highest level, but he hit .301 with an .838 OPS in 65 minor league games this season and played shortstop much more than any other position this year.

The most intriguing option, however, is rookie Cole Carrigg, who’s flashed some unique versatility to kick off his big league career. The switch-hitter has 10 home runs and an .804 OPS through his first 85 MLB games and is quickly winning fans over with his hustle and flexibility.

Carrigg, 24, received sporadic reps at shortstop on his ascent up the Rockies’ minor league ladder, but he’s always been an outfielder by trade. The team’s trade of Brenton Doyle opened up center field on their big league roster, and that’s where the majority of Carrigg’s playing time has come.

Still, his arm strength makes him at least somewhat of a fit at shortstop, and the numbers have backed that up. So far in 91 MLB innings at the position, he’s turned in 4 DRS and 0 OAA. That doesn’t knock your socks off, no, but it’s a respectable amount of value from a player who has never called shortstop home before.

It feels far likelier that Carrigg gets a look as the Rockies’ full-time center fielder next season, but his ability to at least competently play shortstop makes him an even more valuable asset. Should Tovar’s struggles continue, it makes sense for him to continue losing playing time to someone who’s simply been a better player.

Closing Thoughts

The previous regime leading the Rockies made the choice to throw money at Tovar and lock him up, and that’s become the new leadership’s issue. He is still super young, but he’s going to get more and more expensive, and we’ve seen it many times over the years with a whole bunch of different teams that that gets hard to simply put on the bench.

This in mind, Tovar is likely going to be required to put in a ton of work this offseason to improve his game on both offense and defense. Even still, we’re likely looking at the starting shortstop for the Rockies on Opening Day in 2027.

Still, there’s going to be pressure that only gets stronger as the days go by. If we are to take the last two calendar years and write them off on Tovar’s behalf, he’s simply got to make the necessary adjustments to make himself worth the money. Otherwise, his contract is just going to become another ugly albatross deal.