How Should the Phillies Stack Up Their Playoff Rotation?

The Philadelphia Phillies face a postseason dilemma that many other franchises would love to have. Philadelphia currently has one of the best three-headed monsters in baseball atop its rotation.

Philadelphia just capped off an incredible month of August, finishing with a 21-7 record. The scorching month from the Phillies has comfortably put them in playoff positioning as the season winds down.

The Phillies’ offense was significantly better in August, but it is their starting rotation that has carried the club for the majority of the season.

Jesus Luzardo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the start of June, Cristopher Sánchez is second in fWAR among pitchers, and Zack Wheeler, despite a recent rough patch, is one of the best starting pitchers of the decade.

The rotation is so talented that it faces multiple questions when October rolls around. In what order will the Phillies roll out their aces? Who will step into the role as the No. 4 starter in the postseason?

The Likely Postseason Matchup

As the regular season comes to a close, a matchup between the Phillies and Cubs appears to be inevitable. The Cubs are 10 games back of the Brewers, essentially locking them into Wild Card positioning. The Phillies trail the Braves by five games, but Atlanta holds the tiebreaker with 12 games to play.

The Cubs and Phillies hold a 1.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the top two Wild Card spots. Barring a collapse from one of the clubs or an amazing run for the Phillies, the two teams will likely meet in the Wild Card Series.

For the Phillies, the three starters they would use in that three-game set are fairly obvious. They will go to Luzardo, Wheeler, and Sánchez. The only question that remains is in what order.

The answer isn’t clear-cut for Philadelphia. Luzardo and Sánchez are their best starters right now, but the Cubs provide a matchup nightmare that makes it a tougher decision for the Phillies.

Chicago has by far the best offense against left-handed pitching. The team has an .805 OPS, nearly 20 points higher than the second-best team, against southpaws. The Cubs also have a 124 wRC+ against lefties, with the second-place team at 116 (TEX).

Their numbers against lefties are even better at Wrigley Field. The team has an .882 OPS and a 146 wRC+ against left-handed pitching at The Friendly Confines. The Phillies’ lefty aces have both faced the Cubs twice this season, and the results were not very promising.

In two starts against Chicago this season, Cristopher Sánchez has thrown 11.1 innings, allowing 18 hits and eight runs. Jesus Luzardo pitched 10 innings against the Cubs, allowing 17 hits and nine earned runs.

How the Phillies Should Set the Rotation

The Cubs are still among the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching in baseball, with a .757 OPS (4th) and a 111 wRC+ (3rd). The Phillies’ best right-handed starter is Zack Wheeler, but him getting the opening game of the postseason isn’t a guarantee given the way he has thrown the ball lately.

Wheeler has put together three straight good outings, but prior to those performances, he was the worst starter in the Phillies’ rotation for a month. From July 26 to August 29, Wheeler was struggling to emulate his first-half success.

During that month-long stretch, he started six games and posted an 8.51 ERA. Wheeler struggled with his command and had trouble putting hitters away, but his recent starts have been more vintage Zack Wheeler.

Zack Wheeler, though, has a track record of dominance in October. Considering the probability of a matchup with the Cubs, the Phillies could certainly go to Wheeler in the first game.

There is also an outside chance at a matchup with the Diamondbacks, another team that is great against left-handed pitching. The Phillies can’t go wrong with letting Wheeler toe the rubber in Game 1.

Another factor is whether they lock down the first Wild Card (or division) and get a home series. Sánchez has been dominant at The Bank this year, with a 2.21 ERA in home starts, as opposed to a 3.68 ERA on the road. In contrast, Luzardo has a 4.05 ERA in Philadelphia this year and a 1.76 ERA on the road.

The No. 4 Starter

Another decision Don Mattingly and his staff need to make is who will assume the role of the No. 4 starter.

Prior to the All-Star break, there was talk of the Phillies acquiring a starting pitcher. At that point, the Phillies seemed to have two scheduled losses every time through the rotation. They went almost two full months without a win from the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in their rotation.

However, Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter have both flipped the script since July and have been very reliable for the Phillies.

The Phillies’ longest-tenured player, Aaron Nola, was virtually unusable last season and during the first half of this season. He posted a 6.01 ERA last year and had a 5.75 ERA prior to this year’s All-Star festivities in Philadelphia.

Since the end of July, Nola has been arguably the second-best starter in the Phillies’ rotation. Dating back to July 27, Nola has a 2.38 ERA. One of the more impressive stats from this run is his 97.3% left-on-base percentage. During this run, Philadelphia has opted to go with Garrett Stubbs behind the plate for Nola, and it’s made a world of difference for him.

When being caught by J.T. Realmuto, he’s posted a 4.74 ERA. With Rafael Marchán behind the plate, Nola has a 7.89 ERA. The Phillies have found his perfect battery mate in Garrett Stubbs, with Nola posting a 3.13 ERA in those games.

The other potential option to take the No. 4 spot is Phillies rookie Andrew Painter. It looked like the Phillies may have rushed Painter to the big leagues when he posted a 7.06 ERA prior to the All-Star break. Opponents were hitting .316 against the 6-foot-7 righty, and the Phillies ultimately decided to send him back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Since his return in late July, Painter has been much better. He came back up with a changeup that has been devastating, and MLB hitters have struggled mightily against the pitch. The opposition is hitting .118 and slugging just .137 against his changeup.

The new pitch in his repertoire has contributed to making him much more effective overall. Since coming back up, Painter has a 3.58 ERA. He’s dropped his BABIP from .341 to .254 and lowered his home runs per nine from 1.94 to 0.89.

The Phillies’ Rotation Verdict

The Phillies have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to their starting rotation. They have three ace-level pitchers who could all be the best pitcher on a lot of clubs. They also have two arms at the back end of their rotation who have thrown the ball really well lately.

It’s most likely that the Phillies face the Cubs in the Wild Card Series. A matchup with either the Padres or the Diamondbacks is still possible.

Philadelphia should elect to use Zack Wheeler as their Game 1 starter. Chicago and Arizona both rake against left-handed pitching, and the Phillies can trust their established postseason performer in Wheeler. Even if they draw San Diego, Wheeler has been tremendous against them throughout his career, with a 2.20 ERA. He threw seven innings, allowing just two runs while striking out eight in his lone start against them this year.

Regardless of the matchup, the Phillies should opt to go with Jesus Luzardo in Game 2. Luzardo has posted a 2.01 ERA since June 1, one of the best marks in all of baseball. In his last seven starts, he has a 1.08 ERA. Especially if the Phillies end up going on the road to Chicago, his 1.76 road ERA makes him the obvious choice.

No matter what the order is, someone is going to seem disrespected. Cristopher Sánchez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but based on the matchups and the way Luzardo has thrown the ball lately, Sánchez should be the Game 3 starter.

Sánchez hasn’t had his best stuff in his last few outings, and when compared with Luzardo, who has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last month, it’s hard to justify relegating Luzardo to the No. 3 starter come October.

The No. 4 spot in the rotation should go to Aaron Nola. While the fourth starter is not used much in a World Series run, the Phillies should be able to count on Nola to deliver a couple of great starts if needed. He has entirely turned it around from his 2025 campaign and first half of 2026, and has actually become an arm Philadelphia can count on.

Andrew Painter will still be a valuable asset to the Phillies’ staff come playoff time. They can certainly use Painter in a long role whenever needed. The rookie will certainly be pitching meaningful innings when the Phillies call his number in October.

Ultimately, the Phillies’ problem is one of the most desirable in all of baseball. They have three pitchers who can be argued to be the Game 1 starter, as well as two back-end guys who have thrown the ball phenomenally over the past few months. Philadelphia’s biggest strength is their starting rotation, and they will lean on them to deliver the long-awaited World Series title to the City of Brotherly Love.