Did Jesús Luzardo Cost Himself an Even Bigger Payday?

To acquire an elite starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, you have to be willing to pay a premium. The Philadelphia Phillies were willing to do so with Jesús Luzardo. Yet, the young left-hander still may have cost himself millions by signing an early extension.

The Phillies entered spring training this year with one year of club control remaining over Luzardo. After losing Ranger Suárez to free agency, and with just two seasons left of Zack Wheeler, the club was determined to get a deal done prior to him reaching the open market.

Philadelphia and Luzardo agreed on a five-year contract worth $135 million in March. Luzardo’s camp felt properly compensated. The new deal, which kicks in at the start of the 2027 season, would give him a substantial raise from his $11 million salary in 2026. The contract includes a team option for the 2032 season, meaning the 28-year-old may not hit the market until after his age-34 campaign.

Luzardo’s 2025 Season Put Him in Position for a Big Payday

In his age-27 season, Luzardo put on red pinstripes for the first time. The Phillies traded infield prospect Starlyn Caba (Currently Miami’s No. 7 prospect, per MLB Pipeline) as well as outfielder Emaarion Boyd to the Marlins to acquire the southpaw. His first year in Philadelphia was filled with ups and downs.

The biggest problem holding Luzardo back in 2025 was concerns about him tipping pitches. The issue came to the forefront following a stretch in which he surrendered 20 runs in two starts against the Brewers and Blue Jays.

When pitching from the stretch, Luzardo had a .287 average against while allowing an .801 OPS. Even worse with RISP, opposing hitters hit .301 with an .884 OPS. With the bases empty, Luzardo held hitters to a .213 average and a .572 OPS.

Luzardo was clearly tipping pitches and struggling to keep runners from scoring when they got on base, a problem the Phillies knew they could work with him to fix. Finding a solution could allow him to reach his ceiling.

Even with those brutal struggles when men were on base, Luzardo still finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2025. His underlying numbers showed that he was a lot better than his ERA and poor performances were letting on.

Luzardo went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA last year. However, he posted a 3.33 xERA and a 2.84 FIP while accumulating a 5.4 fWAR. That standout performance, coupled with a great Phillies postseason debut, earned him the large payday.

Luzardo Has Taken His Game to Another Level in 2026

Jesus Luzardo was excellent for the Phillies last season. In 2026, he’s elevated his game to the next level, and his current market value is much higher than it was when he decided to ink his extension.

Luzardo has improved his game in several aspects, logging career bests in multiple key areas. Luzardo has pulled his K/9 up to 11.21, while also increasing his groundball rate about five percentage points to 48.4%, the best mark of his young career.

After a dazzling start against the Mariners, Luzardo’s ERA has dropped all the way to 3.09. Since June 10, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 1.90 ERA in 14 games over that stretch.

The advanced numbers are once again stronger than his surface-level results suggest. The former third-round draft selection boasts a 2.86 xERA and a 2.92 xFIP. Both are by far the best of his career.

The drastic improvement can largely be attributed to his sharp turnaround with runners on base. After struggling mightily in such circumstances last season, Luzardo has turned it into a strong point. His opposition is hitting .224 with a .664 OPS with men on base. With RISP, Luzardo is holding hitters to a .219 average with a .639 OPS.

Luzardo was already elite against same-handed hitting, but this season, he’s taken that to a whole new level as well. Left-handed hitters are batting .147 with a .379 OPS against him. Luzardo has become a nightmare for any lefty bat.

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Could Luzardo Have Earned More By Waiting?

Jesús Luzardo will be one of the highest-paid pitchers in the league next year, with an annual salary of $27 million. However, for a 28-year-old pitcher entering the prime of his career, he certainly would have received a ton of interest if he tested the waters of free agency.

The Phillies All-Star has been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season. According to Baseball Savant, Luzardo ranks in the 98th percentile in pitching run value. He also owns the fifth-most valuable pitch in all of baseball; his sweeper has registered a whopping 20 run value on its own.

Almost every team in the league would be interested in adding a young Cy Young-level left-handed starting pitcher. Framber Valdez received a three-year, $115 million deal from the Detroit Tigers last offseason, which pays him north of $38 million annually.

Valdez signed that deal entering his age-32 season. Luzardo will be 29 years old on Opening Day in 2027 and has put together a far better season than Valdez’s contract year.

Max Fried landed an eight-year deal for $218 million from the New York Yankees, earning him more than $27 million annually. In this season alone, Luzardo is likely to eclipse the fWAR Fried posted in his final two years in Atlanta.

The biggest argument against the case for Luzardo earning far more than the aforementioned pitchers is his limited track record. He was outstanding last season, but 2023 was his only other elite year. Valdez and Fried had strung together several seasons of being among the best left-handed pitchers in baseball.

Luzardo’s Cy Young-caliber 2026 season, coupled with his age and dominant stuff, suggests he would have been in for a significantly larger payday if he had waited a year. If he were to hit the open market this offseason, a seven-year deal worth at least $200 million would have been a realistic possibility. Ultimately, however, Luzardo still earned a big payday and received security with Philadelphia.