Taking Stock of the Red Sox Before the Trade Deadline

Well, that was fun.

For a few days, the Boston Red Sox looked like the team we thought they would be. Great starting pitching. A shutdown bullpen. Elite defense. Timely hitting. An extra-inning comeback victory capped the club’s first four-game sweep of their archrival Yankees since 2018, a winning streak that would stretch to five the next night after they jumped all over Miles Mikolas in a 6-3 victory over the Nationals.

It was the unquestionable high point of the season, but if you watched the 2026 Red Sox long enough, you knew it was too good to last.

The next two games against Washington put the Red Sox’s flaws back on full display, namely an anemic offense. The biggest bright spot for the Red Sox, meanwhile, came crashing back down to earth, with Connelly Early leaving Tuesday’s start with an elbow injury and Payton Tolle appearing completely out of gas in a three-inning, six-run blowup on Wednesday.

Even in the watered-down American League, it’s hard to see the Red Sox sustaining a long enough run to avoid a sell-off at the August 3 trade deadline. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current state of the roster and see who is worth keeping, who has more to prove, and who should be on the trading block.

(Injured) Franchise Cornerstones: OF Roman Anthony, SP Garrett Crochet

If the Red Sox are going to turn the ship around in 2027, it will be on the back of these two players.

​Despite the injuries that have wiped out significant chunks of this season, the long-term outlook on Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet has not changed. We saw last year how dominant each of these two players can be when they are right.

​Crochet is one of just a handful of true aces in the game today, and the massive workload he took on to drag the Red Sox into the postseason last season undoubtedly had some residual effects in 2026. Both his command and his ability to sustain his velocity were nowhere near where they were in his debut season in Boston, particularly during a 1.1-inning, 11-run meltdown at the hands of the Minnesota Twins

​Having just turned 27 years old, there is no reason why Crochet can’t recapture the dominance of his Cy Young runner-up campaign. A strong two months to close out 2026 would go a long way to providing optimism headed into 2027.

​Though a delayed callup and an early September oblique injury combined to limit him to just 71 games in 2025, Anthony was every bit as impactful as Crochet when he was on the field. The 21-year-old slashed an incredible .292/.396/.463 while trailing only Aaron Judge with a 60.3% hard-hit percentage.

​While Anthony got off to a slow start in the season’s opening month, the underlying metrics (92.3 average exit velocity, .410 expected slugging) pointed to impending positive regression, and his 15.4% walk rate would rank top-five in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

​Yet just when it seemed like Anthony was about to take off with a 5-for-12 start to May, a bizarre check swing resulted in a torn ligament in his finger, and what was supposed to be a minimum IL stint has extended for nearly two months without an end in sight.

As unfulfilling as the first calendar year of Anthony’s career has felt, they shouldn’t overshadow what a special hitter Anthony is. His combination of exit velocities and plate discipline at his age is nearly unprecedented, and a couple of freak injuries don’t overshadow his sky-high potential.

​Even if the Red Sox position themselves as buyers at the deadline, there is no move that can be as impactful in getting these two guys back.

Steadily Progressing Stars: RF Wilyer Abreu, CF Ceddanne Rafaela

​Here’s some good news for Red Sox fans: Take a look at the bWAR leaderboard for AL Outfielders, along with their respective ages:

Player	Age	bWAR
Ceddanne Rafaela	25	3.6
Cody Bellinger	30	3.6
Wilyer Abreu	27	3.1
Byron Buxton	32	3.0
Mike Trout	34	2.8

​You can make a strong argument that the Red Sox have the two most valuable outfielders in the American League under the age of 30. While they are imperfect players, the fact that the team has both Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu under control through the rest of their primes is a huge asset as the Red Sox set out to rebuild the rest of their roster.

​While the extensions of Kristian Campbell and Brayan Bello continue to age poorly, the decision to lock up Rafaela to an eight-year, $50 million deal has proven to be one of Craig Breslow’s best moves.

​His defensive prowess in center field is second only to Pete Crow-Armstrong’s, and his performance at the plate has steadily improved in each of the last three years:​

• 2024: .246/.274/.390 (85 OPS+), 2.6 BB%, 26.4 K%
• 2025: .249/.295/.414 (97 OPS+), 4.8 BB%, 19.9 K%
• 2026: .284/.332/.435 (117 OPS+), 4.9 BB%, 19.8 K%

Though a .339 BABIP indicates he might be in store for some offensive regression, Rafaela’s Platinum Glove-caliber defense gives him a floor of at least a big league regular, and even average offense could be enough to solidify him as a perennial All-Star.

​In his third full season with the Red Sox, Abreu has answered two big questions that have plagued him throughout his big league career: He has played in 84 of a possible 86 games after three combined IL stints between 2024 and 2025, and his .362/.430/.521 slash line against fellow southpaws is a significant step-up from the .230/.299/.377 he posted against them in a limited sample in 2025.

​Yet while Abreu has completely flipped the script against lefties, his performance against his righties has cratered from his first two seasons. His .227/.291/.393 line against righties this year has been far short of what the Red Sox need from their best healthy left-handed hitter, and he has failed to pick up the offensive slack in the wake of Anthony’s injuries.

​Perhaps one day Abreu will be able to find the happy medium between his 2025 performance against righties and current production against lefties, but even if he is a bit overexposed at the centerpiece of an offense, his combination of elite defense, plus power, and solid plate discipline has turned him into a borderline All-Star player.

​Impact Veterans: 1B Willson Contreras, SP Ranger Suárez

​For all that has gone wrong this season, the Red Sox’s two marquee offseason additions have lived up to any reasonable expectation.

​Willson Contreras has been unquestionably the team’s best hitter this season, posting a career-high .912 OPS that ranks fifth in the American League. His elite bat speed and exit velocities suggest there is still a good bit left in the tank, as does his premium defense at first base.

​The Red Sox would likely get a haul back if they chose to move him, but he is set to make a very reasonable $17 million next season with a $20 million club option for 2028. As they set out to overhaul their offense, it would make little sense to trade their best hitter under contract for two more seasons.

​After a WBC-disrupted spring training and a pair of rocky starts to open his Red Sox tenure, Ranger Suárez has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball over the last two months, posting a 2.35 and a 2.36 FIP over his last 14 starts.

​As he enters his thirties and his fastball continues to hover in the 90-91 mph range, it’s unreasonable to expect Suarez to sustain this level of production, but he has proven that he can handle pitching in Boston.

​Being able to slot a pitcher with as much experience, pedigree and pitching smarts as Suárez into the middle of your rotation is a true luxury, and he should be at least an above-average starter for the remainder of his five-year, $126 million contract.

​Part of the reason the Red Sox are in the position they are is that they put their faith in the wrong veterans (more on that later). Suárez and Contreras are exactly the type of proven commodities the Red Sox should be targeting: consistent, reliable, big-game players who aren’t afraid of the big moments.

That‘s a Lot of Lefties: LHP Connelly Early, LHP Jake Bennett, LHP Payton Tolle

​If there is one position the Red Sox are absolutely loaded in the long-term, it’s left-handed starting pitchers. If they trade Sonny Gray, there’s a very strong argument that the top five starters in the organization will all be left-handed, which is not ideal for any team, especially one that plays at Fenway Park.

​Of the five southpaws, Crochet and Suárez’s contracts render them pretty much untradeable, which shifts the attention to three rookies.

​Connelly Early, Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle each come with their respective strengths and weaknesses, and with opposing teams certain to call about the availability of each of them this deadline and offseason, the Red Sox will need to evaluate which ones they want as long-term rotation pieces.

​In terms of pure ceiling, there is no question that Tolle is a cut above the rest. The 2024 second-round pick rocketed through the system last year, overmatching minor league hitters from Greenville to Worcester en route to a September callup.

​While his rawness was exposed in that cup-of-coffee, particularly an overreliance on his four-seam fastball, Tolle has re-emerged as a more complete pitcher this season. The increased usage of his sinker and cutter has prevented hitters from sitting on his four-seamer, and a new-look curveball has held opposing hitters to a .172 batting average and generated a 45.7% whiff rate.

​The result has been more weak contact, more chases, and one of the most dominant four-seam fastballs in the game:

​2025

• Opponent Batting Average:.283
• Opponent Slugging Percentage: .565
• Opponent wOBA: .402

2026

• Opponent Batting Average: .169
• Opponent Slugging Percentage: .298
• Opponent wOBA: .243

Yet while Tolle has the greatest upside, he also carries the most reliever risk. His confidence in his secondary pitches still comes and goes, and he has trouble sustaining his velocity deep into outings, an issue exemplified during a recent start against the Nationals:

• First Inning: 96.8 mph

• Second Inning: 97.2 mph

• Third Inning: 97.3 mph

• Fourth Inning: 96.7 mph

• Fifth Inning: 95.5 mph

• Sixth Inning: 94.7 mph

The fact that Tolle has stamina issues is not all that surprising given that he was a two-way player in college and got rocketed through the system, but it is noticeable that the Red Sox seem to have a shorter leash with him than Early:

​90+ pitches

• Tolle: 4 out of 13 starts

• Early: 11 out of 16 starts

​95+ pitches

• Tolle: 1 out of 13 starts

• Early: 7 out of 16 starts

​Of course, much of the team’s confidence in Early stems from the metronomic-like consistency he has displayed since his very first day in the majors. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 21 career starts and two runs or fewer in 16 of 20.

​While Early has shown an ability to expertly mix-and-match between six pitches, throwing each at least 8% of the time, his lack of a true standout pitch will likely cap his ceiling at a tier below Tolle. Therefore, the much closer comparison is actually with Bennett, with whom he shares many similar traits

Pitcher	Age	Height (Extension)	Average FB Velocity	Four-Seam FB %
Connelly Early	24	6’3 (6’8)	93.4	35.1%
Jake Bennett	25	6’6 (7’2)	93.0	33.1%

Acquired in the offseason in a rare prospect-for-prospect swap with the Washington Nationals, Bennett has made only seven starts between two different stints in the show, displaying improved velocity and sharper secondaries over his last three weeks.

• ​First Stint: 2 G, 10.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 4.35 ERA, 4.74 FIP
• Second Stint: 5 G, 30.1 IP, 9 ER, 3 BB, 27 K, 2.67 ERA, 2.58 FIP

​Since he is the oldest of the three, the last to arrive in the majors and the only one who wasn’t a consensus top-100 prospect entering this season, Bennett may seem like the odd man out, but there are some underlying metrics that suggest he has actually been the best of the bunch:

Pitcher	Chase %	Walk %	GB %	xERA
Jake Bennett	40.4%	4.5%	53.4%	2.82
Payton Tolle	33.5%	7.5%	35.0%	3.18
Connelly Early	31.4%	8.7%	44.1%	4.28

The old adage is that you can never have enough pitching, but with the rotation so crowded and more on the way, it would make sense to use one of these three arms as a way to balance out their roster.

​It may not happen at this deadline, especially with Early out for at least the rest of the first half with elbow inflammation, but you can bet that the second half of the season will serve as something of a showcase for a potential move this winter.

Have to Listen: RP Garrett Whitlock

​In a perfect world, the Red Sox would not even entertain the possibility of trading Whitlock. After years of injuries and shuffling between the rotation and the bullpen, Whitlock has been one of the best set-up men in baseball since the start of 2025, pitching to a 2.34 ERA and 2.37 FIP in 100 innings.

​With this level of production, Whitlock’s contract looks like an absolute steal. He is making just $7.5 million this year with club options for 2027 ($8.25 million) and 2028 ($10.5 million).

​Whitlock’s availability this deadline is not an indictment of his abilities but rather a reflection of how dire the offensive situation is.

​The Red Sox need to find a way to get an impact hitter in the lineup, and with how weak the free agent market is projected to be this winter for bats, trading the last two and a half years of Whitlock’s extraordinarily team-friendly contract may be the best way to do so.

​
More to Prove: SS Marcelo Mayer, C Carlos Narváez, 3B Caleb Durbin, RP Justin Slaten

​This group has all shown flashes of being good big league players, but for various reasons, they haven’t yet solidified themselves as part of the team’s long-term core.

​It’s been another frustrating season for Marcelo Mayer, who landed on the injured list recently with a nagging forearm issue that had been affecting his play for months. Even before the injury, Mayer had failed to meet expectations on either side of the ball, slashing just .220/.282/.312 and recording -2 Outs Above Average at shortstop after taking over for an injured Trevor Story.

​To his credit, he has cut his strikeout rate by nearly 12% from his rookie season, but that increased contact has come at the expense of his power. He ranks in the fifth percentile or lower in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and his exit velocity metrics have plummeted from 2025:

Season	Average Exit Velo	Hard-Hit %	Barrel %	LA Sweet-Spot %
2025	90.0 mph	51.7%	9.2%	35.6%
2026	86.1 mph	36.0%	6.1%	25.6%

At the core of Mayer’s struggles is a complete inability to hit non-fastballs. He is batting .122 with a 40.0% whiff rate against off-speed pitches and .208 with a 35.6% whiff rate against breaking balls, and his production against fastballs (.272 average, .388 slugging) isn’t nearly enough to make up for it.

​Given how much development Mayer missed throughout his minor league career while sidelined with injuries, it’s not all that surprising to see him encounter a prolonged adjustment period in his first full season at the plate.

​It’s also fair to question whether the team properly prepared him for playing shortstop. After shifting between second and third last year, the Red Sox had him focus just on second base as he entered the season, only having him take ground balls at shortstop after it became clear Story would miss significant time.

​With that being said, Mayer is going to need to show improvement when he returns from injury season, as his draft position and prospect pedigree will only take him so far if he is both rarely available and rarely effective.

Arguably the biggest surprise of the 2025 playoff run, there is little question about Carlos Narváez’s defensive prowess. Despite being relegated to a part-time role, Narvaez still ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in both blocking and framing runs.

​Yet as the Red Sox desperately search for more offense, it has been Narváez who has received the brunt of the roster shuffling, ceding playoff time to the (apparently) more offensively gifted Mickey Gasper.

​Regardless of what you think about Gasper, Narváez hasn’t done enough to force his bat into the lineup. He has slashed just .194/.263/.278 over his first 162 plate appearances and seen his strikeout rate rise from 24.9% to 32.7%.

​In all likelihood, Narváez is nothing more than a high-end, glove-first backup, but his numbers from the first three months of 2025 (.280/.354/.437 through July 9) hinted at something more. At the very least, he should be given a runway to show what he’s got, which he will presumably get now that Gasper has been optioned to the minor leagues.

​Speaking of the minor leagues, it looked like Caleb Durbin might be headed there after slashing a dismal .163/.241/.238 through his first 48 games in Boston, effectively serving as the punching bag for the teamwide offensive struggles.

​Yet after a couple of days off and some swing adjustments, Durbin has arguably been the team’s best hitter since Memorial Day, posting a .321/.356/.615 line over his last 31 games.

​What the Red Sox need to figure out is if this is just a hot month or a sign that he has returned to the player he was as a rookie in Milwaukee, where he slashed .283/.354/.427 after a similarly ice-cold start.

​Durbin’s glove (+3 Outs Above Average, 9 Defensive Runs Saved) will allow him to carve out a long big league career, but it will be his offensive performance over the second half of the season that determines whether he is locked in as the Red Sox third baseman headed into 2027.

​In an utterly bizarre and frustrating season, Justin Slaten may be the most perplexing case of them all. He has allowed an earned run in only five of his 22 appearances thus far, which is an even better rate than set-up man Garrett Whitlock (seven of 27). The issue for Slaten is that when it gets bad, it gets real bad.

• Scoring Appearances: 5 G, 3.2 IP, 16 H, 13 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 6 K

• ​Scoreless Appearances: 17 G, 15.1 IP, 10 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 20 K

​Even with how low the lows have been, there is still reason to believe that Slaten can be the reliever he was in 2024, when he led all Red Sox relievers with a 2.93 ERA. His  28.7% strikeout rate represents a new career-high, and his 3.49 expected ERA indicates at least some looming positive regression.

​Given that his actual ERA is still at an unsightly 6.16, it would make little sense for the Red Sox to trade him at his lowest value, meaning that the rest of the season will determine how big a role he is given headed into 2027.

​Depth Pieces of Varying Levels of Intrigue

INF Romy Gonzalez, INF Nick Sogard, INF Andruw Monasterio, OF Nate Eaton, INF Andrew Siegler, LHP Tyler Samaniego, LHP Eduardo Rivera, LHP Alec Gamboa, RHP Zack Kelly

While none of these players will ever be classified as a needle-mover, this group is all under team control for multiple years, and each has the ability to fill important roles at the back-end of the Red Sox’s roster. No need to go too in-depth, so here are some quick-hit thoughts on each of these players.

​Romy Gonzalez: Solidified his place as a lefty-mashing big league bat with a 130 OPS+ in 2025. Still finding his timing after returning from shoulder surgery on Sunday.

​Nick Sogard: A classic scrappy utilityman who has hit a solid .264 over parts of three seasons. His ability to stick at the MLB level will be determined by whether he can hit for enough power to complement his elite eye.

​Andruw Monasterio: Has done a semi-passable Gonzalez impression with a .813 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but offers little else in the field, on the bases, or against right-handed pitchers. Could be next on the chopping block with Gonzalez back from injury.

​Nate Eaton: Has all the tools to carve out a career as a speedy fourth outfielder but will need to improve on his .333 career slugging percentage against lefties

​Anthony Siegler: The third piece of the deal that brought Durbin and Monasterio to Boston, the switch-hitter parlayed a strong Triple-A performance into an MLB callup, where he has promptly slashed .318/.388/.500 and asserted himself into the leadoff spot. Will get some runway as the strong side of a second base platoon.

​Tyler Samaniego: The second piece of the Johan Oviedo deal posted a respectable 2.66 ERA and 3.54 FIP in his first 20 big league appearances, but got caught up in the option game and has been in Worcester for the last month. He deserves a longer look, and could get one if Aroldis Chapman, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe are traded.

Eduardo Rivera: Called up straight from Double-A to throw 3.1 shutout innings of relief against the Yankees but has struggled with control upon being optioned to Worcester. Still, 6-foot-7 lefties who throw in the mid-90s don’t grow on trees, and he will surely get another look at some point this season.

Alec Gamboa: The minor league journeyman has only made three unremarkable appearances in the show this season, but he’s transitioned nicely to a relief role in Worcester (20 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 18 K over his final eight appearances).

Zack Kelly: A serviceable middle reliever (4.07 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 9.1 K/9) who was sent to the minor leagues in deference to Tyron Guerrero. Like Samaniego, he will likely get another opportunity after the trade deadline.

​Gigantic Question Marks: Kristian Campbell, Triston Casas, Brayan Bello

​There was a time when each of these three players looked like cornerstone players.

​Triston Casas was one of the best hitters in baseball during the last four months of his rookie season in 2023, slashing .307.404/.570 from July 3. At the same time, Brayan Bello was looking like a long-term rotation fixture, posting a 3.57 ERA through the end of August before running out of steam in September.

​Bello’s performance earned him a six-year, $55 million contract extension at the start of 2024, a move that foreshadowed the eight-year, $60 million extension they would give Krisitian Campbell the following spring.

The then-22-year-old Campbell had an even shorter resume than Bello, inking the deal after just a week in the bigs, but was coming off winning Minor League Hitter of the Year honors in 2024 and would hit .301/.407/.495 through the end of April.

​Now, all three players are at a crossroads, albeit of wildly different circumstances. Casas missed most of 2024 wth a fractured rib and hasn’t played since May 2025 due to a ruptured patella and an abdominal strain; Campbell is slashing just .211/.344/.282 in Worcester; and Bello was optioned to the minors after 61 dismal MLB innings in which he was bizarrely only effective when used after an opener.

​While none of these guys have earned the benefit of the doubt, they are all still young enough (Bello 27, Casas 26, Campbell 24) that you can’t completely close the book.

​The Red Sox also have plenty of incentive to give them every opportunity to right the ship, given their desperate need for any sort of power and the $105 million they owe Campbell and Bello combined for the remainder of their ill-advised extensions.

​Pitching Infirmary: RHP Johan Oviedo, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Kutter Crawford

​As with the previous group, all three of these pitchers have had a period of sustained success at the major league level. Tanner Houck earned an All-Star nod after a dominant first half in 2024, and though he fell off in the second half, he still finished seventh in the American League.

​Though not as dominant, Crawford was a steady force alongside Houck in the 2024 rotation, taking the ball a league-leading 33 times and giving the Red Sox 183.1 league-average innings. His numbers were eerily similar to what Johan Oviedo had given the year prior, when he posted a 4.31 ERA over 32 starts for the Pirates.

​Unfortunately, the last two seasons have been a complete mess for all three pitchers:

​Houck: Posted an 8.04 ERA in 2025 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.

​Crawford: Missed all of 2025 with knee and forearm issues, made just one rehab start this season before being shut down with elbow soreness.

​Oviedo: Missed all of 2024 and most of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Made just one appearance in 2026 before landing on the injured list with a flexor strain.

​Barring any setbacks (which is always a huge caveat), we should get a look at all these guys before the end of the season, which will help indicate which role they will be best utilized in for 2027.

​Fire Sale Trade Pieces: Jarren Duran, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman

​If the Red Sox fully commit to a fire sale, these three players are their best chance at getting substantial value in return.

Although he blew his first two saves of the season in the past week, Aroldis Chapman has still been among the best closers in all of baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile with a .187 expected batting average and in the 93rd percentile with a 30.0% strikeout rate.

​There is not a clear precedent for Chapman’s value (not many 38-year-olds throw 100, after all), but there’s no doubt that he will be the best reliever on the market this deadline.

​Given that he will almost assuredly reach the 40-inning threshold necessary to guarantee his $13 million salary for 2027, the best template to what Chapman could fetch may be the Padres’ acquisition of the last year and a half of Josh Hader’s contract back in 2022.

This shocking deal netted the Brewers a healthy haul of lefty reliever Tyler Rogers, right-handed pitcher Dinelson Lamet, the Padres’ seventh-ranked (left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser), and their 28th-ranked (outfielder Esteury Ruiz) prospects.

Though not at the same level as Chapman, David Bednar was another proven closer with a year and a half left of team control when he was shipped from the Pirates to the Yankees for their eighth-ranked (catcher/first baseman Rafael Flores) and 14th-ranked (catcher/first baseman Edgleen Perez) prospects.

​A conservative estimate would be that the Red Sox will be able to add at least two solid prospects to the system. Still, it’s possible that Chapman’s pedigree and the lack of reliever competition on the trade market drive the price up even further.

Acquired this past offseason in a deal that turned out to be a massive win for the Red Sox, Sonny Gray has been everything they could have hoped for, leading the American League with nine wins and placing fourth (min. 80 IP) with a 2.69 ERA. He has pitched so well, in fact, that he has positioned himself to be one of the most sought-after pitchers at this year’s deadline.

​The Diamondbacks’ trade of Merril Kelly provides a pretty clear comparison of what a Gray return might look like. Both pitchers were expiring free agents in their age-36 season and had put together similar numbers over the first four months of the season.

​Merrill Kelly (2025): 22 GS, 128.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 bWAR

​Sonny Gray (2026): 15 GS, 83.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 2.3 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 2.0 bWAR

The Diamondbacks were able to obtain a haul for the last two months of Kelly’s services, receiving the Rangers’ fifth-ranked (left-handed pitcher Kohl Drake), ninth-ranked (left-handed pitcher Mitch Bratt) and 13th-ranked (right-handed pitcher David Hagaman) prospects.

All things being equal, Gray’s pedigree and season-long performance would net an even larger return, but his complicated contract situation, as explained below by @redsoxpayroll, may scare off potential suitors.

Gray carries a huge CBT hit for an acquiring team. The cash from StL doesn't transfer. It stays with the Red Sox. Also, the $10M buyout for 2027 isn't prorated so you add that to the 30% of 2026's $31M remaining on 8/3 and you get $19M+.

h/t @EthanHullihen for the assist here.

— Red Sox Payroll (@redsoxpayroll) June 23, 2026

​If the Red Sox are willing to eat a significant portion of his contract, however, they could be sitting on a gold mine. His ascension has perfectly coincided with the struggles of Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta, another pending free agent who has posted a 6.23 ERA over his last 10 starts.

​The Tigers’ All-Star duo of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal may be the biggest starting pitcher prizes of this deadline season, but Gray has established himself as the clear third banana, and his stock has only continued to rise with each passing start.

​While history may give us a pretty good indication of the type of markets Gray and Chapman may garner, it’s truly impossible to know the current value of Jarren Duran. His season, much like his career, has been a series of dramatic swings:

• Opening Day-April 29: .170/.231/.250, 1 HR

• May 1-4: .389/.421/.889, 3 HR

• May 5-May 18: .125/.218/.188, 0 HR

• May 19-June 2: .340/.400/.774, 6 HR

• June 2-July 3: .141/.163/.222, 2 HR

​There is no longer any debate about whether the Red Sox-Duran partnership has run its course. With three younger, more well-rounded outfielders under team control through at least 2029, there is no future for Duran in Boston. The more pressing question is whether the Red Sox could even get a fraction of what they could have gotten for him even a year ago.

​The pessimist will point out that a guy batting .194 with a 30.0% strikeout rate isn’t exactly someone contenders will be sprinting to acquire. The optimist, however, will point out that Duran still possesses most of the elite tools that made him a down-ballot MVP candidate just two years ago:

Season	Average Exit Velocity	Bat Speed	Sprint Speed
2024	90.8 mph	73.6 mph	29.6 ft/s
2026	89.5 mph	75.2 mph	29.1 ft/s

Furthermore, Duran has done a complete 180 on defense, going from -4 Outs Above Average last season to +5 so far this season, and has converted on all 12 of his stolen base attempts.

​There is no clear comparison point for Duran, as the steepness of his drop-off over the last two years is nearly unprecedented. The closest equivalent may be Luis Robert Jr., who was shipped to the Mets for the last two years of his contract for the offensively limited Luisangel Acuña and unranked pitching prospect Truman Pauley:

• 2025 Luis Robert: 110 G, .223/.294/.364, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 33 SB, 7 OAA, 1.4 bWAR

• 2026 Jarren Duran: 79 G, .194/.249/.350, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 12 SB, 5 OAA, 0.3 bWAR

​The key distinction between the two is that Robert has averaged just 104 games since 2021 while Duran has been a model of durability, playing in 394 of 408 possible games since 2024. Still, it’s hard to believe that the Red Sox would give away Duran if the offers they receive mirror what the White Sox got for Robert.

On the flip side, it only takes one GM to believe that a change of scenery could help Duran recapture his All-Star form. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that there is still a lot of interest throughout the league, and the Red Sox could benefit from the lack of available outfielders on the market, especially if the Twins hold on to superstar center fielder Byron Buxton. ​

While Gray and Chapman would likely be off the table if the Red Sox climb back in the race, a Duran trade may be what’s best for both parties regardless of the standings, especially if Anthony can return to an already crowded outfield mix.

​Take What You Get

INF Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, C Connor Wong, SP Patrick Sandoval, RP Danny Coulombe, RP Tyron Guerrero, RP Greg Weissert, RP Jovani Moran

​None of these eight players is going to bring back much in return, but they could all have provided value to a contender. A quick rundown.

​Isaiah Kiner-Falefa: After playing sparingly through the first month and a half, IKF has been forced into a bigger role following Trevor Story’s injury and performed better than anyone could have expected before landing on the injured list himself with a forearm injury. The 31-year-old slashed .321/.391/.440 over his previous 26 games while accumulating 7 Outs Above Average between shortstop, third base and second base.

​Though they have slightly different profiles, Kiner-Falefa has some similarities to Amed Rosario, who the Yankees acquired last season. The veteran utility infielder fetched the Nationals right-handed pitcher Clayton Beeter, the 20th-ranked prospect in a strong Yankees farm system, and outfield prospect Browm Martinez.

​Given that Kiner-Falefa once looked like a sure-fire DFA candidate, it would be a win for the Red Sox to get that type of value back in a mid-season trade.

​Connor Wong: A much-maligned figure in Red Sox land, Wong has been surprisingly low on the Red Sox list of problems this season. He’s hit a perfectly adequate .289/.375/.402 through his first 114 plate appearances while sustaining his defensive improvements from 2025.

​Though Wong has been the better of the two true Red Sox catchers this season, Narváez’s defensive chops and the fact that he is three years younger make him a more valuable long-term asset. They also have acceptable minor league depth, as Jason Delay, Matt Thaiss, and recent signee Andrew Knizner all have major-league experience.

​With so many teams in dire need of a starting-caliber catcher, it would not be surprising to see the Red Sox get a better return than anticipated, especially considering he is under team control through 2028.

​Last deadline, for example, the Marlins were able to turn Nick Fortes, who had a .637 OPS at the time of the trade, into Matthew Etzel, the 28th-ranked prospect in a strong Rays farm system.

​Patrick Sandoval: It’s impossible to make a complete assessment of a potential return for Sandoval until we see him pitch at the MLB level, something that injuries have prevented him from doing since 2024.

​Barring another setback, however, it’s clear that time is coming sooner than later, as Sandoval has looked strong during five rehab starts, though he has only built up to 60 pitches. He should return right before the All-Star break, giving him about four starts to showcase his stuff.

​If he looks anything close to the 3.3 bWAR/2.91 ERA pitcher he was in 2022, he could be an attractive option to a contender without the assets to get some of the top-tier rentals.

​One possible point of comparison is Shane Bieber, who was able to get the Guardians a very solid pitching prospect in Khal Stephen, who was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Blue Jays farm system, even though he was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

​Obviously, Sandoval does not have the track record of the former Cy Young Award winner, but it goes to show that there will be a market for Sandoval if he can string together a couple of good starts, especially if the Red Sox are willing to eat some of his $12.75 million salary.

​Danny Coloumbe: Signed in spring training to give the Red Sox some more left-handed relief depth, Coloumbe doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank.

He has walked ​11 batters against just 10 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, and has allowed a dismal .286/.405/.286 line against fellow left-handers. The one positive from his season has been his ability to limit weak contact, as he ranks among the league leaders in average exit velocity (82.8 mph) and hard-hit percentage (21%).

​If the Red Sox wave the white flag, there is no reason for the Red Sox to keep Coloumbe for the last two months of a lost season, so they just have to hope a team is looking to add an experienced low-leverage arm for the stretch run.

​Tyron Guerrero: This 35-year-old flamethrower could be the X-factor of the Red Sox’s whole trade deadline. Relegated to the minors due to an inability to throw strikes, Tyron Guerrero has walked just one batter through his first 14.2 innings while still managing an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and 52.6% groundball rate.

​There’s not much precedent for a pitcher emerging as a dominant late-inning force in his age-35 season, so while he is under contract through next season, the Red Sox would be smart to capitalize on a contender trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

​Greg Weissert: Weissert has assumed the role of the fanbase’s least-favorite middle reliever (a position previously held by Heath Hembree, Kaleb Ort and Ryan Brasier), but there is a surprising amount to like about his profile.

​While the lows have admittedly been quite low, Weissert has given the Red Sox 168 appearances of 3.21 ERA ball over the course of three seasons. He has posted a BB/9 between 2.8 and 3.1 each year, is currently posting a career-high 8.6 K/9, and doesn’t possess a drastic platoon split.

​Every team could use a Greg Weissert in their bullpen, although you wouldn’t really want more than one. The Red Sox don’t exactly need to dump Weissert, who is under team control through 2028, but they would be ill-advised to hang up the phone on a team desperate for semi-capable middle relief work.

Jovani Moran: Despite some occasional lapses in command, there’s a lot to like about Moran’s profile. He ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in expected batting average, whiff rate, and hard-hit percentage, and has demonstrated an ability to neutralize righties with an elite changeup (.268 xwOBA, 48.6% whiff rate).

Though Moran is still under contract for multiple years, his lengthy injury history, which includes Tommy John surgery in 2024 and a recent stint on the injured list with elbow inflammation, may lead the Red Sox to sell high if he has a strong and healthy July.

Sunk Cost: SS Trevor Story, DH Masataka Yoshida

​The ship has completely sailed on any semblance of a valuable return for Chaim Bloom’s two big free-agent acquisitions.

​There was a moment where it looked like the Red Sox may have an opportunity to dump the remaining two years and $38 million of Masataka Yoshida’s contract when he got off to a hot start in April, but a .214/.278/.337 line over his last 116 plate appearances has effectively slammed that door shut.

​Trevor Story, meanwhile, got off to a dismal start to the season, and we later learned that he had been dealing with a sports hernia since spring training. He is on the track to return sometime after the All-Star break, but his early-season numbers (.206/.244/.303, -3 Outs Above Average), $25 million AAV and lengthy injury history have sapped any trade value he built up during his bounce-back 2025 season.

​A trade of either player at the point would necessitate the Red Sox taking on most of their hefty remaining contracts, rendering any “salary dump” effectively useless. The Red Sox’s best option would be to hope they rebuild some value in the second half of the season and try again this winter, when they will each be entering the last year of their deal.