MLB's Best Closers Are Showing Why the Position Is so Volatile

A tale as old as time, the volatility of a Major League Baseball reliever. Often given just three outs to get, sometimes even less, it’s easy for a few bad outings to spoil an otherwise dominant campaign.

Because of this, that separates the greats from the rest of the pack even further. Even the really good relievers of this era find themselves susceptible to years of struggle.

This year is far from the exception to the rule. Some of the best relievers in MLB are having down years, while we’ve also seen breakouts from other, unlikely sources. In a lot of ways, that’s the beauty of baseball. In others, that’s the curse of a game predicated on failure.

It makes you appreciate the arms who’ve avoided that seemingly inevitable down year. Before getting into those enduring it, let’s appreciate the ones who aren’t.

The Outliers

RHP Jhoan Duran – Philadelphia Phillies

Duran’s “down” year is a 3.64 earned run average back in 2024, but even that’s far from bad. Especially given it was still early in his career, where he went 23-for-25 in save opportunities.

There’s always a question when someone goes from a small market to a big one, like the right-handed flamethrower did going from the Minnesota Twins to the Philadelphia Phillies last year. However, his talent outshined the new environment. He got even more dominant, despite a slight tick down in earned run average. He refused to walk guys in Philadelphia, and saw his strikeout rate jump from 25.7 to 33.3 percent.

This year, he’s got a 1.69 earned run average, which is a career high to this point. His strikeout rate took another jump, up to 42.2% this season. His walks are still down, though up from post-trade.

Even on nights he doesn’t have his best stuff, he’s a very uncomfortable at-bat. His triple-digit fastball is enough to overpower even the best hitters. His splitter, which is harder than a lot of guys’ fastballs, makes hitting him borderline impossible.

RHP Mason Miller – San Diego Padres

Another right-handed fireballer dealt at least year’s deadline, Miller is the class of relief pitching in MLB. Through 32 outings, he’s got a 0.79 ERA and a strikeout rate of 51.2 percent.

Watching Miller, it’s hard to fathom somebody making contact, let alone doing damage. The 27-year-old averages 101.2 mph on his fastball, which is 100th percentile. That’s not the only metric he leads the pack in. He’s 100th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.

He hasn’t even allowed a home run since Aug. 5 of last season, which was his second outing with the Padres.

But not every reliever is so lucky to dominate on an annual basis. Here are some of the established star relievers falling prone to the volatility of the position.

It Happens to Everyone

RHP Bryan Abreu – Houston Astros

Abreu hasn’t always dominated MLB, but recent years positioned him as one of the best back-end arms in the sport.

This year, while strikeouts remain aplenty, his command has failed him drastically. While he’s never been avoidant of Ball 4, he’s walking 20% of batters faced in 2026. Among all pitchers with 10 innings, only three of 491 arms walk hitters at a higher clip.

The erratic command has him saddled with an ERA of 6.39, a career worst. In years with at least five innings of work, he’s also got career worsts in expected ERA, FIP, xFIP, and fWAR.

The silver lining for Abreu is his command is closer to recent seasons since the start of May, even if it’s also come at the expense of his strikeout numbers. However, he’s got a sub-three ERA since May 3, with scoreless outings in 15 of his 18.

RHP Jeff Hoffman – Toronto Blue Jays

The under-the-hood metrics suggest some bad luck has plagued the right-hander this year, but Hoffman’s ERA is the worst since his final year in Colorado.

The noise is loud when he struggles, especially since he gave up the game-tying home run in Game 7 of the World Series last year. His response thus far is 5-for-8 in save chances and an ERA of 4.84.

For Blue Jays fans looking for something to latch onto with Hoffman, he’s striking out 35.4% of batters and has a 3.08 expected ERA. However, when you’re a high leverage reliever on a team that won the American League pennant last year, it’s hard to latch onto expected data. Especially when you’re seeing several key players struggle en route to a 39-42 record.

That said, he’s got a blood red Savant page, highlighted by a 99th percentile whiff rate and 98th percentile strikeout rate.

RHP Pete Fairbanks – Miami Marlins

One of the shocks of the winter was when the Tampa Bay Rays let Fairbanks hit free agency. After the year he had, why would they?

Perhaps they were onto something, as Fairbanks hasn’t been the same since getting to Miami. In 24 innings, he has a 6.75 ERA with -0.2 fWAR. He does have 12 saves, and his strikeout rate is back north of 30% for the first time since 2023, but that’s about it.

Hitters just aren’t hitting the ball on the ground against him anymore. Before 2026, his career low for ground ball rate was 42.7% back in 2021. This year? It’s 19 percent. Not only are hitters elevating the ball more against him, a greater frequency of those fly balls are leaving the ballpark. His home runs per fly ball rate is 16.2 percent, the highest since his debut season in 2019. After allowing seven all of last year, he’s already allowed six in 2026.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MAY 05: Andres Munoz #75 of the Seattle Mariners takes the field during the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves at T-Mobile Park on May 05, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jack Compton/Getty Images)

RHP Andrés Muñoz – Seattle Mariners

The fireballer for Seattle is having by far the worst year of his career, less than a season removed from his best.

Like Hoffman, the under-the-hood is more promising, but he’s still got an ERA north of five through 31 appearances. Not only that, but the high ERA accompanies a greater frequency in blown saves. Last year, he blew seven, but had 38 saves. This year, he’s already blown five with just 14 saves to offset it.

His velocity is up half a mile from last year, his strikeout rate is up and his walk rate is down. However, he’s giving up homers on 18.2% of his fly balls, the highest frequency of his career.

RHP Devin Williams – New York Mets

This is his second year in a row with a high ERA despite promising peripherals.

Since leaving Milwaukee, Williams hasn’t endeared himself to either market he’s played in. Despite trying both sides of the Subway rivalry.

He’s not getting torched by the long ball, and he’s hardly wavering from a strikeout standpoint, but his command has very much come and gone in 2026. He signed a three-year deal with the Mets last offseason, but Year 1 has left a lot to be desired.

The Mets are having a year to forget, and he’s been a catalyst in that. Now, Mets fans aren’t too foreign to elite level closers having bad years — as they had a love-hate relationship with Edwin Díaz before he left for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

That said, it wouldn’t be MLB if not for some “out of left field” breakout relievers. Let’s shine some light on a few.

The Breakouts

RHP Bryan Baker – Tampa Bay Rays

Baker has a track record of MLB success, but nothing quite like he’s shown this season.

He was having a solid season last year for the Baltimore Orioles before sputtering after a midseason trade to the Rays. Not only has he rebounded this year, he’s emerged as a fringe All-Star-level closer for one of the league’s biggest surprises in 2026.

Opponents just don’t get hits off of him anymore; hitting just .153 overall. Not only that, but the expected data echoes the breakout we’re witnessing. His expected batting average is .185, which is in the 96th percentile. He’s also in the 91st for whiff rate, 89th for chase, and 86th for strikeout rate overall.

When you generate whiffs and chase, you’re likely going to find success. Especially in high leverage spots, which Baker is frequenting this year.

LHP Jacob Latz – Texas Rangers

It’s been steady improvement on an annual basis for Latz, but he’s exploded in 2026.

Through 38 innings, he’s got a 1.89 ERA and 1.3 fWAR, both of which are career bests to date. The strikeouts are the real surprise for Latz, along with razor sharp command. He wasn’t a true contact pitcher before this year, but his previous career high was just 21.8% a season ago.

His under-the-hood metrics suggest this breakout is legit, even if he’s slightly on the lucky side from a run prevention standpoint. But in a bullpen that came into the year relying on a 40-year-old Chris Martin, who’s dealt with injuries and poor performance, the Latz breakout is a welcomed sight.