Revisiting the Heist That Landed the Blue Jays a Stud Catcher
Never a highly-touted prospect, expectations weren't high when Brandon Valenzuela joined the Blue Jays. Now, he's become an irreplaceable piece.
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On paper, the Will Wagner-for-Brandon Valenzuela trade seemed like a nothingburger. So far this season, it’s been evident that’s not the case.
When the Toronto Blue Jays traded for Valenzuela in July of 2025, expectations weren’t super high. He wasn’t a top prospect of the San Diego Padres, was stuck behind Ethan Salas, and didn’t have a clear path to the big leagues. At the time, he was another defence-first catcher stuck in Double-A. Many people (myself included) saw him as a potential big leaguer, but not one ready to take a starting gig.
Wagner, on the other hand, was an offence-first infielder trying to return to the form he showed in his strong rookie season in 2024. Traded two days after turning 27, he had battled injuries in each of his first two Major League seasons. Not only was his production down, but he was blocked from playing time by the emergence of Ernie Clement and the strong play of Bo Bichette and Andrés Giménez.
Still, at the time, for some the trade seemed a bit puzzling. Wagner had a career slash line of 265/.336/.362, and just a season before, in 24 games, was worth 0.7 bWAR. However, he was a pretty brutal defender (-3 Fielding Run Value in 2025). While he was league-average at second, he was worth -2 FRV at both third and first base. It didn’t help that his hitting had regressed, and so after 40 games (and -0.5 bWAR), Toronto decided to move on.
Entirely Different Trajectories
Since then, it’s been a stark difference in trajectory for the two. Wagner spent a month in Triple-A post-acquisition, and struggled in his brief action in the Majors late in the season (.133/.235/.133) across 15 plate appearances. He’d get injured to start 2026 and, after a month on the IL, would be optioned back to the minors, where he’s hitting .255/.381/.382. Along with the three infield positions, he’s also been seeing some action in left field, which should aid a return to the majors, especially with Ramon Laureano missing the remainder of the season due to hip surgery.
After an unspectacular offensive finish to 2025 (a .207/.295/.370 line for Triple-A Buffalo), there weren’t many thinking Valenzuela would contend for a roster spot at the onset of 2026. However, with Alejandro Kirk joining Mexico for the World Baseball Classic, Valenzuela saw plenty of playing time in spring training. It’s safe to say he made the most of that opportunity.
Granted, these are spring training numbers, but the switch-hitting backstop hit .304/.370/.478, including a home run in 23 at-bats. So, when Kirk went down in early April, there was at least some room for optimism. Especially given how strong Valenzuela’s defensive reputation was.
Brandon Valenzuela’s Defense Is Shining Through
Always regarded as a defence-first catcher, Valenzuela threw out 34% of potential base stealers (between Double-A and Triple-A) in 2025, an excellent mark. This season, he’s at 21.1%, which might seem like a stark drop-off, but is tied 20th in the league. His CS above average is in the 87th percentile, aided by his pop time of 1.90 seconds (16th-best) and his arm strength of 84.9 MPH (11th-best). What really sets him apart is his framing, something Blue Jays catchers excel at.
Of all 59 qualified catchers, Brandon Valenzuela’s +5 Catcher Framing Runs is #1 in the league. Combining that with his arm has led to Valenzuela’s Fielding Run Value of +7 this season,which is tied for second with Dillon Dingler and behind only Adley Rutschman, who’s at +8. Recently, we’ve learned that Valenzuela is worth more than just his arm (and glove), as he’s put together a very strong last month.
He Can Swing the Bat Too!
Throughout April, Valenzuela, who was still only playing in a little over half of Toronto’s games, was slashing .200/.238/.350, while recording more strikeouts (14) than hits (8). But Toronto trusted him, giving him more playing time, which he capitalised on with a 4-for-5 game against the Los Angeles Angels on May 9 (including his fourth career home run).
From that date until now, Valenzuela is slashing .308/.304/.569, while walking (11) almost as often as he’s striking out (12). His playing time has increased exponentially, and he’s gone from being stapled to the ninth slot to hitting as high as sixth. His average might be lower against lefties than righties, but his overall slash lines aren’t too dissimilar (.226/.342/.452 vs .267/.344/.488), showing they can trust him from both sides of the plate.
His numbers on both sides of the ball have been so solid that they’ve caused the front office to make a difficult decision once Kirk returns. Do they allow Valenzuela to play almost every day in Triple-A or designate Tyler Heineman for assignment and keep Valenzuela as the backup? Heineman has arguably been the worst hitter in baseball this season, posting a wRC+ of 19, but, like Valenzuela, has been exceptional defensively with +6 Defensive Runs Saved.
The odds are high that a team in need of catching (like the division rival New York Yankees) would be all over a player like Heineman on the waiver wire. But, for as long as Kirk is a Blue Jay, the odds are that Valenzuela will never be a starter. Carrying all three catchers is an option, but there’s limited bench space (especially given the seemingly endless amount of lefty outfielders on the team).
The clock is ticking, and Valenzuela is making this decision way harder than Toronto would’ve hoped. Whatever choice they make, it’s pretty obvious that Toronto won the trade by a fair margin.
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Ethan has been writing for Just Baseball since 2026, and is one of those people who never stops talking about sports. A graduate from the College…