Patrick Corbin Has Been a Pleasant Surprise for the Blue Jays

No disrespect to Patrick Corbin, but when the Toronto Blue Jays signed him in April, I’m not sure they were anticipating an ERA below 4.00. But now, with May about to end and 10 starts completed, he’s been worth well more than advertised.

Expectations

To be blunt, Patrick Corbin has not been a great pitcher over the past couple of seasons. From 2021-2025, he pitched to a 5.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, resulting in an ugly -4.3 bWAR. In fact, only once over those five seasons did he post a bWAR above 0, that being in 2023, where despite his 5.20 ERA, he somehow put up 0.3.

It wasn’t always this way for Corbin, who appeared to be the starter of the future for the Washington Nationals when they signed him to a six-year, $140 million deal heading into the 2019 season.

He was coming off his second All-Star appearance, had finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, and had struck out 246 batters for the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the beginning, it seemed the move paid off, as Corbin had an excellent 2019 with the Nats, posting a career-best 5.1 bWAR.

He was also used heavily by the Nats in their run to the World Series, pitching in eight games (three as a starter), striking out 36 across his 23.1 innings. Then the wheels started to come off. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, MLB seemingly caught up to the soft-throwing lefty. In fact, his numbers from 2019 to 2020 are pretty ridiculous.

2019	2020
Pitching Run Value: 23 (94th percentile)	Pitching Run Value: -8 (10th percentile)
Fastball Run Value: 4 (69th pecentile)	Fastball Run Value: -11 (3rd percentile)
xERA: 4.03 (63rd percentile)	xERA: 5.10 (25th percentile)
xBA: .227 (70th percentile)	xBA: .288 (10th percentile)
Whiff%: 31.7% (85th percentile)	Whiff%: 23.6% (29th percentile)
K%: 28.5% (80th percentile)	K%: 20.3% (30th percentile)

Those numbers would continue to decrease, with Corbin’s pitching value dropping to as low as -45 in 2022, the worst among all pitchers that season. I want to highlight that 2022 season, because his numbers that year were ridiculous.

Corbin lost 19 games that year, posted a 6.31 ERA (worst in MLB), and led the league in hits and earned runs allowed. He also posted the worst xERA (6.27), xBA (.300), and finished in the bottom 5% in multiple other categories.

Saddled with his contract for another two years, the Nats kept Corbin; he struggled mightily again in both 2023 and 2024, and they let him walk after a 2024 season in which he put up -31 pitching value.

After signing with the Texas Rangers on March 18, his fortunes began to improve in 2025. After a recall from Triple-A in early April, he posted an ERA below 5.00 in his lone season with the Rangers (for the first time since 2020). While he was still a negative player (worth -0.4 bWAR), his fastball was a positive pitch for the first time since 2019, and he allowed under 100 earned runs for the first time since that season.

But, as a 36-year-old with his best years clearly behind him, he hadn’t signed heading into 2026. That was until the Blue Jays got hit HARD by the injury bug.

Wait, He’s Actually Not Bad?

With Cody Ponce, José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage on the IL, Toronto desperately needed a starter. So, on April 3, they signed Corbin to a one-year, $1 million deal.

After one rehab start, Toronto recalled Corbin on April 10th, and he allowed four earned runs over four innings against the Minnesota Twins. While not the start Toronto was looking for, the Blue Jays would rally to win that game 10-4, so not a big deal. Something miraculous happened.

Corbin pitched really well in back-to-back starts. He’d throw 5.2 innings of one-run ball against the Brewers, and follow that up with 5.0 innings of one-run ball against the Angels. He allowed only six hits over those 10.2 innings and struck out nine. He wasn’t stopping there; Corbin has pitched at least four innings in all nine of his starts, and the four runs he allowed on April 10th remain the most he’s allowed in a game all year.

On May 23, it seemed like 2019 Corbin was back, as he threw six innings, allowing only one run and striking out seven (a season high) against Pittsburgh. He followed that up on the 28th by allowing a single run over five innings against the Baltimore Orioles.

Thinking Realistically

So, what form of Patrick Corbin are the Blue Jays going to get for the rest of the season? Advanced numbers say there’s going to be some regression. his ERA (3.65) is way lower than his xERA (5.23). His Fastball Run Value has also regressed, currently residing in the bottom 3rd percentile in baseball at -9.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as Corbin’s offspeed pitches have been serving him well (specifically his slider and changeup). His slider (thrown primarily against lefties) and changeup (thrown almost exclusively to righties) have both been excellent pitches this year.

Opponents are hitting just .130 off the slider and .154 off the changeup, a far cry from his three other primary pitches (sinker, cutter, four-seam), which all have a batting average of .333 or higher. All five of the home runs he’s allowed in 2026 have been off one of his three fastballs, while he’s allowed just one extra-base hit (a double by Paul Goldschmidt) off his breaking balls.

If he can throw the fastballs more efficiently, Corbin might end up as a positive pitcher this season (his bWAR is currently at 1.1), but it’s important to think realistically. In reality, he’ll continue to chug along, will likely have another couple of strong starts, and then throw some stinkers.

So, for the remainder of the season, keep an eye on the hard contact he allows, and make a mental note of the type of pitch it was. For as long as the slider and changeup remain strong, his spot in the rotation will remain unchanged.