The Nationals’ Best Trade Chip Is as Random as He Is Valuable

The Washington Nationals have performed somewhat above expectations this season thanks to contributions from players that came into the 2026 season as the leaders of their team (i.e. James Wood, CJ Abrams). However, one of their most important pieces this year has been a player who hadn’t played in MLB since 2022 and has been dominating the opposition in his return.

Foster Griffin has been a diamond in the rough for the Nationals, as they signed him to a one-year, $5.5 million deal this past offseason and he’s easily been their most efficient pitcher this year. Through the first few days of May, Washington has a record of 16-19 and sits in third place in the NL East, but they’re 5-2 in Griffin’s seven starts this year and he has a personal record of 3-1.

Griffin has truly come out of nowhere this season and is proving himself more and more worthy of an MLB starting job with every outing. The Nationals have made a great move acquiring him in free agency and it’ll be interesting to see what they end up doing with him this season.

Early Career Struggles

Griffin was drafted 28th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft by the Kansas City Royals and he was in their system until 2022 when he was acquired by the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2020, he made his MLB debut with the Royals but only threw 1.2 innings that season and getting just 6.1 innings in 2022 with the Royals and Blue Jays.

He was the classic case of a pitcher being super effective in the minor leagues and not being able to hold a consistent spot on an MLB roster when his time came. In 2022, he posted a 2.10 ERA over 51.1 innings at the Triple-A level but in his 6.1 MLB innings he allowed six earned runs and walked five batters.

There simply wasn’t much reason keeping either of his employers to keep him at the MLB level. With an arsenal revolving around a cutter (88.9 MPH) and a four-seam fastball (93.6 MPH) with a curveball and changeup as secondary pitches, Griffin had a whiff rate of just 25% in 2022. Frankly, the only thing preventing him from ranking among the league’s worst pitchers in most statistics was his very small sample size.

Even though Griffin wasn’t finding success in MLB, he persevered and sought a different avenue to pursue his goal of pitching at the MLB level.

Career Resurgence in NPB

In order for him to continue his baseball career and give himself the best chance at a return to MLB, Griffin followed in the path of many other pitchers by signing a contract to play overseas with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s NPB. He saw an immediate surge in his numbers and his proficiency on the mound in 2023, notching an ERA of 2.75 over 121.0 innings in which he struck out 115 batters and walked just 29.

His 2.49 FIP and 2.44 xFIP showed that this wasn’t a fluke performance but rather that he had improved his skillset and was becoming more efficient on the mound. This trend would only continue as he played further seasons in NPB, as in 2023 he had a 3.01 ERA over 116.2 innings but struck out more batters (126) and walked fewer (23) than the year before.

The 2025 season was perhaps Griffin’s finest performance overseas, even though it was a bit abridged compared to other seasons. He only threw 78.0 innings but had a 1.62 ERA with a 1.78 FIP, striking out over 25% of batters and walking under 6% of them.

He posted a career-best 0.95 WHIP and opposing batting average (.197) while his ERA was nearly 50% better than the league average. Griffin also only surrendered one home run in 2025, showing his ability to limit effective hard contact.

NPB has become known in recent years for being a league where struggling pitchers from North America can go to find success in hopes of either a full-time career abroad or a return to the MLB level. Look no further than Cody Ponce ($30 million contract) and Eric Lauer ($6.6 million over two years), for instance, who pitched overseas to redefine their pitch arsenal and earn themselves big-league contracts. Although these two pitched in the KBO, Griffin has followed a very similar career path to Ponce.

Dominant Return

In his first season back in MLB since 2022, Griffin has led the Nationals as perhaps their best starting pitcher, posting a 2.27 ERA over his first seven starts. He has tossed 39.2 innings with 33 strikeouts and 14 walks while allowing just 29 hits so far this season. He currently leads the Nationals in a slew of categories including innings, ERA, strikeouts, wins (3), quality starts (3), and in left-on-base rate (84.2%).

Since his last MLB action in 2022, Griffin’s four-seam fastball has seen a velocity decrease of -2.3 MPH to just 91.3 MPH on average in 2026, but now he also features a 91 MPH sinker as a part of his arsenal. His curveball and changeup have also fallen in velocity and he’s added a new sweeper that has garnered a 35.5% whiff rate this year, making it a good out pitch.

He is one of just four left-handed pitchers with a cutter worth at least +2 Run Value and one of 11 left-handers to have the same Run Value on his sinker.

Looking even further into Griffin’s new re-tooled splitter, it has the third-highest vertical drop in MLB (41.1″) and its spin makes it a very unique pitch. It has an active spin rate of just 13.6% and it’s the only splitter in MLB (min. 50 pitches) under 33.7%.

Comparable to splitters from Roki Sasaki and Logan Gilbert, it has become a traditional change-of-pace pitch for Griffin who’s garnered a whiff rate of just over 33% on it. Overall, it’s a true one-of-one pitch among left-handed starters in MLB right now.

Potential Trade Chip?

Through April, the Nationals are 16-19 and currently sit 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, for those watching the standings this early in the season, and will more than likely miss the playoffs by a considerable margin. Furthermore, Griffin is on a one-year contract for the 2026 season and will become an unrestricted free agent come the end of the season, so the Nats should try and capitalize on his success at the trade deadline.

There’s nothing that says they can’t pursue Griffin in the offseason or extend him at any point, but as of right now they have a great trade chip on their hands. The potential next chip to fall in their long rebuild might be shortstop CJ Abrams and Griffin’s fate might lie in similar territory.

Washington moved on from starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore this offseason for a large trade return and they’re building a strong roster out of young and controllable talent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them move on from Griffin this year.

The Nats are getting strong starts from Cade Cavalli and decent starts from Jake Irvin, but a rotation containing Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell simply isn’t going to produce strong results overall. While Washington is just three games under .500 entering the second month of the season, it would take a very strong showing for them not to sell at the deadline. If they do decide to sell this year, Griffin will be the most clear option to get a trade package at the deadline.