Bryce Harper Sure Looks Elite
If the Phillies are going to break out of their current funk, they're going to need as much elite-ness as their superstar can provide.
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Two things can be true.
One: The widespread reaction to Dave Dombrowski’s comments this offseason was overblown. The Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations really didn’t say anything controversial.
Here are the comments he made about Bryce Harper after Philadelphia’s early postseason exit:
He’s still a quality player. He’s still an All-Star-caliber player. He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past. And I guess we only find out if he becomes elite or he continues to be good. If you look around the league, I think … Freddie Freeman: He’s a really good player, right? He still is a good player. Is he elite like he was before? Probably not to the same extent. Freddie is a tremendous player, and that, to me, is Bryce. Can he rise to the next level again? I don’t really know that answer. He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else.
I don’t think he’s content with the year that he had. And again, it wasn’t a bad year. But when you think of Bryce Harper, you think of elite, right? You think of one of the top 10 players in baseball, and I don’t think it fit into that category. But again, a very good player. I’ve seen guys at his age — again, he’s not old — that level off. Or I’ve seen guys rise again.
If you followed this drama at all over the winter, you probably heard some, or even all, of that quotation. What you may not have heard is the leading question that Dombrowski was answering.
From the way too many outlets covered this story, you’d think the POBO sat down, grabbed the mic, and said, “Bryce Harper ain’t elite. Peace.”
Not quite.
Here’s the question that led to Dombrowski’s now-infamous response: “With regards to Bryce, what is the club’s view on his season? Why do you believe, maybe, that it was just a down season for him and not the start of, maybe, a downward trend?”
The reporter didn’t ask if Dombrowski thought Harper had a down year in 2025. His question took that for granted. And with that extra context, it sounds more like Dombrowski is defending Harper, not denigrating him.
Sure, Dombrowski seemed to agree with the premise that Harper wasn’t elite. But to focus on just that one word is to ignore all the other ways the executive praised his biggest star. He called him “a very good player.” He threw around the word “tremendous.” He said he was “All-Star-caliber,” despite the fact that he wasn’t an All-Star in 2025.
What’s more, Dombrowski made it abundantly clear that the only reason he didn’t consider Harper’s season elite is that he has very particular criteria for that descriptor.
If his definition of elite, as he says, is “one of the top 10 players in baseball,” then no, Harper wasn’t elite in 2025. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact. Harper didn’t rank among the top 10 in any major categories. He didn’t take home any end-of-season hardware or earn any MVP votes.
You could probably argue he was a top-30 offensive player, but even then, it would depend on your criteria.
Harper’s .844 OPS ranked 22nd and his 131 wRC+ ranked 26th among qualified hitters. But is it fair to exclude ‘unqualified’ hitters like Nick Kurtz, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Roman Anthony from the discussion? Bring the plate appearance threshold down to, say, 300, and Harper’s OPS and wRC+ drop to 32nd and 37th, respectively.
Perhaps, then, counting stats are better for a conversation like this. Harper finished 36th in Win Probability Added and 30th in FanGraphs’ offensive runs above average (the offensive component of fWAR). He was 28th in context-neutral run value, according to Baseball Savant, but only 61st in context-dependent run value.
Point being, Harper had another very productive season. He just wasn’t a top-10 player like he’s been in the past. That’s all Dombrowski said, and I mean… folks, where’s the lie?
Dombrowski also compared Harper to Freddie Freeman, who, I should note, made his ninth All-Star team, earned MVP votes for the eighth consecutive season, and helped the Dodgers to their second straight World Series title in 2025.
The Just Baseball editorial staff ranked Freeman as MLB’s second-best first baseman for 2026, while Harper ranked sixth. (Though, I’ll note that I ranked Harper second on my personal list.)
Comparing Harper to Freeman in this context is like saying you don’t think Glen Powell is that handsome… and then likening him to a young Brad Pitt in the same breath.
Dombrowski wasn’t dissing Harper. He just has a sky-high bar for what he considers elite. And as he explains, the reason that bar is so high is that Harper set it that way. When you’ve got two MVP Awards and you’ve already punched your ticket to the Hall of Fame halfway through your $330 million contract, people are going to have high expectations for you.
All this to say – with full awareness of the irony – I don’t think Dombrowski’s comments were worth the attention they drew from fans or the media. He answered a question honestly. That’s no small part of his job.
If he simply refused to acknowledge that any of his players were anything less than elite at everything always, reporters would quickly stop showing up to his press conferences.
At the same time, Bryce Harper isn’t any other player on the team.
I started this article by writing that two things can be true. We’ve finally reached the second thing. One: The controversy surrounding Dombrowski’s comments was blown way out of proportion. Two: Harper had every right to be offended.
When he posted a picture of himself taking batting practice in a shirt that read “Not Elite” across the chest, it seemed pretty clear he felt slighted.
Harper later addressed the matter directly. He clarified that he didn’t disagree with the content of Dombrowski’s remarks. He knew he had a down year. What he took issue with was the public nature of it all. That’s more than fair.
It’s hurtful to hear second-hand that someone said something negative about you, especially someone who’s supposed to have your back. It’s even more hurtful when you know that what they said was true.
It cannot be understated how important Harper is to this organization. He has led them to four playoff appearances, two division titles, and one NL pennant (and counting). Someday, he’ll go into the Hall of Fame with a Phillies logo on his cap. He’s earned a little respect.
I’m not saying the Phillies have to treat Harper like a god. But when I heard his response to Dombrowski’s comments, I couldn’t help but think back to when the Phillies won the 2022 NLCS and owner John Middleton told Harper, to his face, that he was underpaid.
As I wrote a few years ago:
“Can you imagine if your boss grabbed you by the shoulders, looked you in the eyes, and exclaimed with glee that you deserved more money? Keep in mind, this is the one person who has the power to give you that money. This is the person lining their own pockets with your accomplishments. And this person dares to tell you that you should be making more money, but they aren’t going to give it to you.”
Just one year later, a report that Harper was hoping to discuss an extension was met with laughter and criticism from many of the same fans and media members who had previously called him underpaid.
Dombrowski and Middleton politely sidestepped any questions about those rumors, though their responses certainly implied they weren’t in any rush to offer Harper more money.
There aren’t many players for whom a year like Harper’s 2025 would be a disappointment. With 3.5 fWAR, he was still underpaid, according to FanGraphs’ dollars-per-WAR calculation. He made $27.5 million. He was worth $27.7 million.
You could argue that it’s a compliment to call a year like that a down year. Still, I’m sure you can also see why it would be frustrating for Harper. When he’s playing at his best, he’s taken for granted. When he’s anything less than perfect, thousands of people will make sure he knows it.
So, why does all this matter right now? Because Bryce Harper damn sure looks elite again.
Through 21 games, the first baseman has 10 extra-base hits, including four home runs. His 15.9% strikeout rate (14 Ks) would be a career best.
A 145 wRC+ means Harper has been 45% more productive than a league-average hitter, and that’s despite a .288 BABIP that’s well below his .321 career mark. His .422 xwOBA is 33 points higher than his actual wOBA and currently ranks 11th among qualified hitters, just behind reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani (.424) and Aaron Judge (.425).
Even more promising? Harper has done a lot of that damage against breaking balls.
For a second year in a row, he is seeing fewer fastballs and offspeed pitches and a career-high rate of breaking balls:
Over the first 11 years of his career, Harper saw breaking balls 26.4% of the time. From 2023-24, he them at an increased 32.2% rate. In 2025, that number jumped again to 40.7%.
This was one theory for why Harper had a down year. He’s typically performed his best against fastballs and his worst against breaking balls. That’s pretty normal.
What wasn’t normal was how often he was seeing those types of pitches. Only one qualified batter saw breakers at a higher rate in 2025: Harper’s then teammate Nick Castellanos.
Facing fastballs, Harper’s .405 wOBA ranked in the 91st percentile (min. 1000 pitches). His .307 wOBA against breaking balls ranked in just the 60th percentile (min. 500 pitches).
To be clear, that’s still comfortably above-average – this is Bryce Harper we’re talking about – but comparatively speaking, he was struggling against breaking pitches. Seeing more of them was bringing down his overall numbers.
So far in 2026, breaking balls make up nearly half of all the pitches Harper has seen. That’s absurd. It’s the highest rate among qualified batters. If it stays like this, it will be the highest rate for a qualified batter in recorded history.
Some batters see a ton of breaking balls because opposing pitchers know they can’t hit them. In Harper’s case, it’s more like his opponents are so scared of what he’ll do if they throw him anything that isn’t a breaking ball that they’re leaning on breaking pitches out of desperation.
Unfortunately for those pitchers, that approach isn’t working anymore. Yes, the sample is small. But Harper owns a .481 wOBA and a .540 xwOBA against breaking balls in 2026. He’s laying off them when he needs to and mashing them when he makes contact.
We all know to take things with a grain of salt this early in the season. But all the salty goodness we’ve seen so far is encouraging.
This spring, Bryce Harper told reporters he wasn’t motivated by anything Dombrowski said about him. That he doesn’t need motivation to be great.
We’ll have to take Harper at his word on that, but whatever is (or isn’t) motivating him, there’s no denying he has been great. If the Phillies are going to break out of their funk and claw back to the top of the NL East, they’re going to need as much elite-ness as their superstar can provide.
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Written by
Leo Morgenstern is one of the managing editors for Just Baseball. He is also the managing editor at Jays Centre. His writing has appeared all over…