Top Notes From the Brewers’ ZiPS Projections for 2026

Led by two-time NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy, the Milwaukee Brewers have a tendency to outperform projection models. It seems like year in and year out, despite what the preseason numbers might predict, the Brew Crew find a way to surpass expectations.

This season, ZiPS is giving Milwaukee a very high probability of being a good team with the upside of having another great season.

The latest division projections, updated at the end of January, have Milwaukee finishing with 86 wins and second behind the Chicago Cubs, who are projected for 87 wins. That said, when have the Brewers ever cared about what the preseason projection models are saying about their chances?

This is a team that continuously defies the odds, and they will look to do so again in 2026 en route to their fourth consecutive division crown.

As a summary for those who may be unfamiliar, ZiPS is a player projection system created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, who has spent the past two decades developing the model. Here is Major League Baseball’s summary of how the system works:

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

Szymborski released Milwaukee’s 2026 projections back in December, and you can find the latest numbers on the team’s projections here.

Let’s break down the main takeaways from this year’s Brewers ZiPS projections.

Brewers ZiPS: Position Players

The Brewers’ lineup was one of the best in baseball last season, finishing top 10 in wRC+, sixth in total fWAR, and third in batting average. Power wasn’t its strong suit, but the offense ended with the third-most runs scored in MLB thanks to its ability to manufacture runs in typical Brewers fashion.

Unfortunately, ZiPS sees some regression happening for several of Milwaukee’s most important hitters. 2025 saw the breakout of Brice Turang, a career resurgence from Andrew Vaughn, and strong contributions from unsung rookies such as Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins.

With the latter two names no longer in the picture and the former two projected for a step back offensively, how will this offense fare this coming year? Let’s take a look at what ZiPS thinks.

• A step back for Brice Turang — Turang had an exceptional breakout season in 2025, establishing himself as a top-four second baseman heading into 2026. However, after a power surge of 18 home runs led to a career-best 124 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR last season, ZiPS has the Brewers second baseman coming back down to earth.
  
  The modal has Turang’s wRC+ dropping to 98 and his fWAR falling to just 2.9 in 2026. It still has the 26-year-old slotted for 13 homers and 27 steals, but a step back in both the on-base and slugging departments have him closer to the 2024 version of himself rather than the borderline All-Star fans watched a season ago.

• Akil Baddoo to win the fourth outfield job with authority — Death, taxes, and the Brewers sparking a career resurgence. Baddoo projects to be the latest reclamation success story for Milwaukee, finishing sixth on the team in wRC+ (103) and OPS (.723) and seventh in fWAR (1.6).
  
  Since his rookie season where he burst onto the scene, Baddoo is slashing .201/.288/.323 for a .612 OPS across his most recent four seasons (223 games). So, seeing the modal project him as an above-league-average hitter in 2026 is rather surprising. The 14 projected homers particularly stand out considering he has 15 total homers dating back to the aforementioned sample from 2022-2025.

• More of the same for Jackson Chourio — Many thought Chourio had the potential to take the leap into MVP candidacy in 2025, but unfortunately that type of jump didn’t materialize. It was still a solid year for the 21-year-old, posting another 20-20 season and near three-win campaign, but fans know he has more in the tank.
  
  However, ZiPS doesn’t envision Chourio tapping into that potential in 2026. After finishing with a 111 wRC+ last season, the projections have Chourio at a slightly better 115 wRC+ in 2026. The system projects a slight bump in fWAR (3.2 compared to 2.9 in 2025) and OPS (.783 compared to .770 in 2025) to go along with very similar counting stats (22 homers and 23 steals). Still, he’s the projected leader on the team in homers, runs, RBIs, and batting average, but there’s room for him to exceed his ZiPS projections.

• A down year for Christian Yelich — It was another successful (and healthy) year for Yelich in 2025, hitting 29 homers — his most in a season since 2019 — to go along with 103 runs driven in and a 121 wRC+. ZiPS envisions a step back in his age-34 season, though.
  
  Yelich is slotted for a 109 wRC+, a mark that would be his lowest since 2021, to go along with an fWAR of just 1.1. For reference, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season where he posted 0.9 fWAR, Yelich has never finished with an fWAR below 1.4. So, ZiPS has him projected for a career-low output in terms of overall value. Considering there are some questions regarding whether or not this offense can replicate its success from 2025, a step back of that magnitude for Yelich would be a really significant setback for this team.

• Jett Williams to make an impact right away — Welcome to Milawukee, Jett Williams. ZiPS has the No. 45 prospect in baseball finishing fifth on the team in fWAR (1.8), runs scored (75), and RBI (68). Projected for a punchout rate just south of 27% and a batting average of just .227, there’s concerns about his ability to get on-base. However, the system is optimistic that he can rack up the counting numbers.
  
  In fact, he’s projected for seven triples, which is the most on the Brewers, to go along with 28 doubles, the third-highest projection on the team. If the Brewers got that level of production out of Williams in his first taste of MLB action, I’d imagine they would be very pleased.

• What happens if Andrew Vaughn regresses? — Frankly, Vaughn might be one of the hardest players to project in all of baseball heading into 2026. A castaway from the South Side last season, Vaughn hit over .300 with an .869 OPS in 64 games with Milwaukee a season ago. However, in 48 games with the White Sox before the trade, he was a -1.8-bWAR player who hit below .200 with a .531 OPS.
  
  ZiPS has very mediocre projections for the 27-year-old, including a 100 wRC+ and 99 OPS+. While those metrics aren’t poor, that would be a significant step back from what the Brewers got from him in 2025. After all, Milwaukee’s offense was so successful down the stretch and in the postseason because of Vaughn’s surge at the plate. If his production declines the way the modal envisions, someone else in the lineup will need to pick up the slack. And with ZiPS predicting a step back from both Turang and Yelich, this offense could be headed toward significant regression in 2026.

Brewers ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Onto the pitching side of things, ZiPS sees another strong year ahead for the Brewers’ pitching staff. While no single player has jaw-dropping projections, the modal foresees a myriad of arms contributing at the big-league level in 2026, both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen.

Starting Pitchers

• Can Brandon Woodruff handle the ace workload? — Spoiler alert, ZiPS doesn’t see a world in which Woodruff throws a ton of innings. The system has him projected for 20 starts and 97.1 innings, which, to be quite honest, feels like a fair assessment given his injury history and how the Brewers are likely to handle his workload.
  
  Woodruff has supplanted Peralta as the anchor of the rotation. However, while Peralta has thrown 165 or more innings in each of his last three seasons, Woodruff has a total of just 131.2 innings under his belt dating back to the beginning of the 2023 season (he missed all of 2024 due to injury). So, penciling him in for 25-plus starts feels like wishful thinking. If he does end up providing the Brewers just south of 100 innings this season, will that be enough to make up for the loss of Peralta at the top?

• This is a very deep starting rotation — On the flip side, the Brewers don’t need Woodruff to throw 150-plus innings with how deep the pitching staff is. The modal doesn’t have a single arm slotted for more than 144 innings this season (Quinn Priester is projected for the most at 143), but it does have seven different arms slotted for 100-plus innings this year.
  
  With Logan Henderson (93.2 projected IP) and Robert Gasser (79 projected IP) back for a full workload, as well as newcomers Brandon Sproat (124.1 projected IP) and Kyle Harrison (110 projected IP) set to have an MLB impact, the Brewers have the depth to cover the lost innings from Peralta. Whether or not they have the ace-level of production in this staff is a different question, but the Brewers have essentially two rotations worth of arms to pluck from heading into 2026.

• Deep but not elite — The five arms that ZiPS has leading the way in terms of innings and starts for Milwaukee in 2026 are Sproat, Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Priester, and Harrison. Of those five names, Misiorowski is slotted for the best ERA at 3.86, while Patrick is projected for the highest ERA at 4.37.
  
  Meaning, they might not have the arm that can match Peralta’s 2.70 ERA from a season ago, but every arm in Milwaukee’s predicted starting rotation is projected for a very strong, sub-4.50 ERA season. The Brewers would take that every day of the week.
  
  As a side note, Woodruff is projected to lead all starters in ERA at 3.61.

Relief Pitchers

The Brewers are projected to have one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball in 2026. It was one of the best relief units from a season ago, and ZiPS expects more of the same heading into the new season.

• Ángel Zerpa is poised to make an immediate impact — The Brewers are very bullish on their new flamethrowing southpaw. Acquired from the Kansas City Royals in the Mears and Collins trade, Zerpa is projected for the fifth-best ERA on the entire staff, fourth best in the bullpen behind Abner Uribe (3.08), Trevor Megill (3.13), and Jared Koenig (3.63).
  
  Milwaukee has toyed with the idea of making Zerpa a starter, but ZiPS doesn’t see that coming to fruition this season, projecting the 26-year-old for 51 appearances out of the bullpen with only five starts. His projected numbers stand out, through, and he has the makings of being Milwaukee’s next-greatest success story out of the bullpen.

• Abner Uribe to lead the way as the closer — Surprisingly, after Megill was an All-Star closer in 2025 with 30 saves in 47 innings of work, ZiPS has Uribe leading the team in saves with 19. Megill is second at 11 saves.
  
  It will be fascinating to see how Murphy elects to deploy this tandem. They’re projected to lead the entire team in ERA, and they’re two of the three Brewers arms that the system has striking out over 10 hitters per nine innings (Misiorowski, 10.95 projected K/9). This could be one of the best one-two punches closing out games in all of MLB.

• Elite bullpen from top to bottom — This bullpen has a tremendous combination of top-end talent as well as plenty of depth to get them through the grind of a 162-game season. Of the eight names listed on RosterResource to make up Milwaukee’s bullpen, five are projected for an ERA below 4.00, and all are listed for an ERA below 4.20.
  
  Rob Zastryzny has the highest projection at a 4.19 ERA. That speaks to how high this projection modal is on this group of relievers. That doesn’t even account for prospects like Craig Yoho, Shane Drohan, Tate Kuehner, or Tyson Hardin, who could all throw meaningful innings out of the bullpen this season.

Brewers ZiPS: Final Thoughts

If the Brewers claim a fourth straight NL Central title in 2026, ZiPS believes that it will be thanks to their pitching depth and the incredible number of arms that skipper Pat Murphy has at his disposal.

The offense could be in store for a slight step back from a season ago, but it still figures to be an above-average lineup considering most of the names are returning from 2025. Not to mention, several of Milwaukee’s most important hitters have plenty of room to outperform their modest projections.

The NL Central figures to be one of the most competitive in baseball, and the Brewers enter the year with a target on their back following their historic 2025 campaign.