What Comes Next for the Cardinals After the Arenado Trade?

The St. Louis Cardinals have begun their descent into a full rebuild this offseason.

One week ago, the Cardinals traded third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Around a month prior, they shipped off first baseman Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox.

This trade with the Red Sox came one month after they had sent over ace Sonny Gray in another deal with Boston. All in all, the three players traded away by the Cardinals amounted to 7.3 fWAR in 2025. In return, they received a total of six prospects.

While disappointing for Cardinals fans, these moves were not necessarily unexpected. Since their 93-win first-place finish in the NL Central in 2022, the Cardinals have gone 232-261 since the start of the 2023 season. Over that span, they have not finished above third place in their division.

In contrast, the Cardinals were an absolute powerhouse throughout the late 2000s and 2010s. In fact, prior to their 2023 implosion, you would have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a season in which the Cardinals finished below third place in the NL Central.

Most baseball fans have viewed the Cardinals as perennial contenders over the past few decades, and rightfully so. This made the Cardinals’ 2021 trade for Arenado all the more exciting, and made their eventual collapse all the more devastating. Still, hope is not yet lost for Cardinals fans.

The Cardinals traded away several key figures but have gained plenty of potential in return. Not to mention, they still have several players that can serve as trade chips in the dwindling months of the offseason.

With spring training quickly approaching, today we will discuss the moves made so far in St. Louis, as well as what we might expect to see from the Cardinals before pitchers and catchers report next month.

State of the St. Louis Cardinals

The three trades made over the offseason create some sizable holes in the Cardinals’ roster.

In 2025, Contreras posted a 124 wRC+ while hitting 20 home runs over 135 games. His 2.8 fWAR was the third-highest total of any Cardinals hitter last season and fourth-highest on the roster overall. 

Arenado, by contrast, posted only 0.9 fWAR with an 84 wRC+ in 107 games. That said, he is just three seasons removed from his 7.2 fWAR campaign in 2022 and has been above replacement level in other seasons prior. Sure, Arenado’s level of play has been in decline, but the loss stings all the same.

However, removing Gray from the Cardinals’ rotation may prove the most costly decision of the three. While Gray’s 4.28 ERA in 2025 may not turn heads, his 3.39 FIP and 3.07 xFIP were far more indicative of the pitcher Gray is capable of being.

Additionally, he made 32 starts and struck out 26.7% of batters with 3.6 fWAR over 180.2 innings. His results were easily the best of any of the Cardinals’ regular starters, and it will be tough to replace outright.

That said, it remains to be seen whether the ends will justify the means. Dating back to the 2025 trade deadline, the Cardinals have quietly collected a slew of promising young prospects. This includes players like Brandon Clarke, Yhoiker Fajardo, Jesus Baez, and Blaze Jordan.

This is in addition to top prospects like JJ Wetherholt and Leonardo Bernal knocking on the door to the majors. Not every prospect in the pipeline will pan out for St. Louis. Yet, there is plenty to be excited about for Cardinals fans.

Who Else Can the Cardinals Move?

Despite the series of trades the Cardinals have already pulled off, they still have plenty of trade capital. Chaim Bloom appears serious about bringing the Cardinals into a true rebuild. If so, he should make the most of their remaining pieces sooner rather than later.

Among these players, there are a few who stand out above the rest. In particular, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan should command solid returns for the Cardinals.

Donovan has been an above-average player throughout his big-league career to this point. Over four seasons, he has a 119 wRC+ and 10.1 fWAR. He is a solid utility player and even brought home a Gold Glove award in 2022.

Burleson’s ascent was a bit more recent. After a few seasons of average play, Burleson went off for a 124 wRC+ with 18 home runs and .290/.343/.459 slash line in 2025. Burleson will also remain under contract until 2029. Given his breakout production and team control, the Cardinals would do well to sell high on him.

The Cardinals could also move off of Lars Nootbar this year. The 28 year-old outfielder still has two years of team control remaining. However, Nootbar has slowed down the past few years after a hot start to his MLB career. Injuries have been a big factor, but he has shown to be a reliable outfielder when healthy.

A potentially great move for the Cardinals would be trading reliever JoJo Romero. His performance has fluctuated over the years, but Romero had a career year in 2025. Over 61 innings, Romero put up a 2.07 ERA and 3.28 FIP, notching eight saves along the way.

Romero is set to hit free agency in 2027. Therefore, the Cardinals should capitalize on Romero’s success now rather than risk selling low on him at the trade deadline. 

One Door Closes, Another Opens

It is perfectly reasonable for Cardinals fans to feel a bit down going into this new season. The expectation that your team will not be actively vying for a playoff spot, but rather spend the year re-tooling, is more than enough to dampen fans’ spirits.

The Cardinals’ fire sale may mark the end of a long stretch of winning baseball, but it might also mark the beginning of a new one. They still have plenty of exciting potential on the MLB roster already with a strong wave of upcoming talent ready to make their mark.

Fans may have to wait a few seasons for the full strength of their new core to materialize, but given the Cardinals’ history, it seems more likely to be a matter of “when” than “if”. In the meantime, it will be interesting to watch as their farm system continues to develop and see which players step forward.

Despite potential growing pains, Cardinals fans have plenty to be hopeful for in the 2026 season and beyond.