Are the Reds Wise to Count on a Matt McLain Rebound?

Fresh off a scrappy playoff berth in 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will again be looking to reach the postseason in 2026. Their roster is one of the league’s youngest, built around star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and starting pitcher Hunter Greene alongside a strong supporting cast.

One particular piece of the supporting cast is second baseman Matt McLain, who will need to step up his game in order for the Reds to stay competitive in a stacked National League. The 26-year-old righty had himself a rough season in 2025, but his case isn’t entirely cut and dry.

There is optimism for a potential bounce back for McLain, who found success in his rookie campaign in 2023, as well as in each level of the minor leagues. However, it’s also entirely possible that McLain will be unable to repeat the high level of production we saw in 2023.

Are the Reds Wise to Count on a Matt McLain Rebound? Short answer: It’s complicated. Let’s dive right in.

McLain’s Past Performance

A former first-round draft pick in 2021, McLain looked like a future cornerstone of Cincinnati’s infield after his 2023 debut. Over 89 games, the then 23-year-old racked up 3.2 fWAR, while slashing an impressive .290/.357/.507. Standing at just 5-foot-9, McLain also managed 16 homers, leading to a 129 wRC+.

McLain also impressed on the defensive side of the ball, recording +2 outs above average (OAA) and +4 defensive runs saved (DRS) while splitting his time between second base and shortstop.

McLain’s development came to a sudden halt in spring training of 2024 after his left shoulder was hurt while diving. The injury required surgery, leaving McLain sidelined for the entirety of 2024.

By the time he was ready to play again in 2025, shortstop was occupied by Elly De La Cruz, meaning the majority of McLain’s playing time came at second base. Unsurprisingly, he excelled defensively, recording +6 OAA across 147 games, good for an 83rd-percentile fielding run value, according to Baseball Savant.

There was no slowing down on the basepaths either, as the speedy infielder swiped18 bags thanks to a 93rd-percentile sprint speed.

Even with his success in other facets of the game, McLain’s bat was lacking. Across his play this past season, he mustered only a 77 wRC+. The final result was a disappointing .220/.300/.343 slash line. McLain’s wOBA also dropped nearly 100 points, going from .370 in 2023 to .286 in 2025.

While the shift in offensive production is extreme, the conditions that led to that shift are no mystery. All that’s needed to see them is a look under the hood at McLain’s contact characteristics.

A Look Under the Hood

One of McLain’s weakest offensive characteristics is the ability to consistently hit the baseball hard. In 2025, his average exit velocity was just 88.8 mph, ranking in the 30th percentile.

McLain supplemented his poor exit velocity numbers with a 12.9% pull-air rate, one of the lowest marks in the league. On its own, a low pull-air percentage isn’t usually cause for concern. However, being able to pull the ball in the air is a necessary skill for hitters lacking in exit velocity like McLain. Notably, the shift in pull-air rate for McLain isn’t drastic between 2023 and 2025.

On the contrary, McLain’s launch angle sweet-spot percentage dropped 5.6% in 2025, while barrel-rate fell by 3.1%. The shift may not seem drastic, but hitters like McLain with limited power potential have significantly less room for error.

Another area that is concerning is McLain’s .385 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in his stellar 2023 season, which suggests that luck played a larger part in his success than we’d like to see. He regressed toward the mean of .300 in 2025, where his .292 BABIP showed that 2025 was more indicative of McLain’s true performance at the major-league level.

It’s possible some of McLain’s struggles stemmed from post-injury timing, but there wasn’t any noticeable change in his performance from the first half to the second half of the season. He’s also never hit as poorly in a season as in 2025, leaving room for plenty of growth heading into this coming season.

Outlook for 2026

Even with offensive struggles, McLain managed 1.4 fWAR in 2025. He remains a fantastic defender and elite base runner, and he will still be a must play for the Reds.

There’s no question as to the opportunity McLain will have to prove himself, with Gavin Lux being sent to the Rays earlier this month. McLain seems sure to slide into the starting second base role, at least straight out of spring training.

And let’s not forget, he was ranked the Reds’ sixth overall prospect before the 2023 season. There’s definitely still offensive talent left; the question is whether it will be unlocked.

So, is it wise to rely on a Matt McLain rebound in 2026? It’s a bit of a gamble, but a bounce back isn’t completely out of the question. Regardless, if McLain is anything close to a league-average hitter, his versatile defense and speedy baserunning will ensure he is a key player for this young and hungry Cincinnati team.