Which Team Should Roll the Dice on Luis Robert Jr.?
It's January 2026, and Robert remains a member of the Chicago White Sox. Is a long-awaited trade still a possibility?
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After the St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to a deal that finally saw a resolution to the issue of moving one of baseball’s most unmovable names (Nolan Arenado is heading to the desert), the focus can now shift to the next complex trade situation.
The baseball world may not have to look hard to find that next notable instance, as Luis Robert Jr. and his long-awaited and highly speculated exodus from the Chicago White Sox could very likely take center stage.
After bursting onto the scene as one of the game’s most promising young talents, the 28-year-old hasn’t come close to living up to the lofty expectations that he set for himself with his impressive three-year stretch from 2021 to 2023.
This has made Robert essentially a $20 million headache that the rebuilding White Sox seem set on finding a resolution to, leading many to ask the question: Does he just need a change of scenery?
If that’s the case and Robert simply has to get inspired by some new surroundings, is there a team that makes sense to take on a lofty AAV (even if it only is for the short-term) for an injury-prone player coming off back-to-back 84 wRC+ seasons?
While there may not be many willing to take the gamble, there are a few that could make sense to take that leap with the struggling former star.
What Does Luis Robert Jr. Bring to the Table?
Before analyzing which teams might be best suited to take on someone like Robert, it’s important to first look at what he brings to the table.
The two consistent factors that have been present in Robert’s game, even in his leaner performing years, have been his defense and baserunning.
In all six seasons he’s appeared in the majors, Robert has posted at-or-above-average OAA and FRV totals, and in five of the six, he’s managed to post above-average DRS marks. To make matters better, he’s done so at the premium and widely coveted center field position.
From a baserunning standpoint, for three straight seasons, he’s swiped 20 or more bags while sitting comfortably above the 80th percentile in sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant.
The issue has been the bat and finding a way to get him back to being the 38 home run and 80 RBI hitter he was in his breakout 4.9 fWAR season in 2023.
While he has always had strong bat speed, hitting the ball hard has become an issue for Robert. The past two seasons have seen him produce hard-hit clips that sat no higher than the 52nd percentile, and even when last at his best in 2023, he only sat mildly above-average in the 58th percentile.
Finding better ways to get him more favorable hitting scenarios despite “weaker” hard-hit capabilities becomes all the more important when you consider how undisciplined he’s been at the dish in the past three seasons, striking out at a 26.0% clip or higher, while walking below 10.0% of the time each of those years.
This leads me to believe that there are two potential types of competitive suitors that could look at someone like Robert: those that need an outfielder and have the financial freedom to take a one-year (or potentially two-year) gamble on him, and those that need an outfielder and can offer him a better physical environment in which to thrive.
Who Is Best Suited To Take a Gamble on Luis Robert Jr.?
New York Mets
Although the New York Mets made the questionable decisions to let Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz walk this winter after the team missed the postseason, nobody should forget just how much money they have at their disposal.
After all, this is the team that gave Juan Soto the most lucrative contract in sports history just a year ago and reportedly offered Kyle Tucker a short-term contract carrying a $50 million AAV.
There are few teams that can afford to take a $20 million gamble, but the Mets certainly are one of them – especially after they missed out on Tucker.
According to FanGraphs’ RosterResource, the current projected outfield in Queens for 2026 consists of Soto, of course, but then it will be up to Tyrone Taylor (70 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 2025) in center, and the potentially strong but ultimately unproven prospect Carson Benge in left.
Taylor alone is reason enough to seek an upgrade, as his .223/.279/.319 slash line from last year hardly makes him look like a worthy heir to Brandon Nimmo in center field.
Now, as we’ve already gone over, Robert hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire himself in recent years, but he has enough upside to at least dream that a more competitive situation could bring out a better version of him.
A Mets lineup led by the likes of Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Marcus Semien with complementary pieces like Jorge Polanco, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty already sounds like a lineup worth putting your best foot forward for, compared to the rebuilding White Sox’s batting order.
Then, there’s the fact that Citi Field profiles as a more homer friendly ball park compared to Rate Field, with a Statcast park factor HR rating of 104, opposed to Chicago’s 96 mark.
Cincinnati Reds
Alternatively, we have the more outside shout of the Cincinnati Reds, who may not be traditional big spenders like the Mets, but still have a need to address their outfield. They are entering the season as a genuine contender, after surprisingly reaching the postseason in 2025.
Last season, the Reds’ outfield unit ranked 22nd in baseball with a 94 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR.
Now, their current center field option, TJ Friedl, is coming off a rather productive season. He hit .261 with 14 HR, 53 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a 109 wRC+.
However, none of this compares to Robert’s aforementioned career heights. Moreover, defensively, Friedl’s -10 DRS, 1 OAA and 0 FRV season in 2025 comes nowhere near Robert’s 0 DRS, 7 OAA and 7 FRV campaign.
The lineup protection, apart from Elly De La Cruz, may be a lot more underwhelming in Cincinnati compared to New York. However, they don’t call Great American Ball Park “Great American Small Park” for nothing. The ball flies out of the outfield confines very easily, second most easily in baseball in fact, according to Statcast’s park factors, so perhaps this is a way to unlock Robert’s power.
The Reds are likely aiming to be competitive once again in 2025 in the Terry Francona era, so if the White Sox can eat some of the money left on Robert’s deal, he could make a lot of sense in the heart of Cincinnati’s lineup.
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Caleb Moody is a contributing writer for Just Baseball and has been covering topics across Major League Baseball with them since he started as an intern…