Biggest Takeaways from Jeff Passan on The Just Baseball Show
IBaseball's top insider and news bomb-dropper, Jeff Passan, joins Peter and Aram on The Just Baseball Show.
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When it comes to free agent sweepstakes or the trade deadline, there’s one guy whose social media is constantly being refreshed. He’s the same guy who, as mentioned in this episode and in his Twitter bio, “bombs atomically.”
Jeff Passan of ESPN joined today’s edition of The Just Baseball Show with Aram Leighton and Peter Appel to discuss a variety of different topics surrounding the current state of Major League Baseball.
From recent extensions, to a possible lockout, and future free agency, the three covered everything. Let’s take a look at some of the key takeaways from the king of MLB Twitter’s conversation on the show.
Samuel Basallo’s Extension
It’s no secret that Samuel Basallo is one of the more advanced hitting prospects we’ve seen in recent memory, as he is currently the sixth-ranked prospect in baseball.
A major talking point throughout this discussion is around the fact that the Orioles have had a surplus of young talents come up in Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and others, yet have failed to ink any of them to an extension.
The Orioles finally lock down the first player from their wave of young talent in Basallo, which was broken by Passan, of course. He highlights that getting Basallo at the rate and the years that Baltimore did is a major win for the organization.
Baltimore’s confidence in what Basallo can ultimately become seems to be the underlying reason for why they chose the young catcher to be their first extension.
Effects on Adley
To close on the Basallo conversation, the three discussed the overall effect on Adley Rutschman and his spot on the Orioles. Right off the bat, Passan confidently states that, when healthy, Rustschman is undoubtedly the starting and everyday catcher.
He does hint that this extension allows the Orioles to listen to some offers on the homegrown backstop this winter. However, at this point, there’s not a lot of sense in trading him when you consider Basallo’s defense and it’s need for improvement along with the value of Rutschman not necessarily adding up between the Orioles and other front offices.
Expansion and Realignment
The idea of Major League Baseball seeing expansion and realignment has been dominating social media feeds since commissioner Rob Manfred mentioned the possibility of it on the broadcast of the Little League Classic. While hypothetical divisions and leagues graphics have floated on socials, Passan begins by making it clear that no formal processes have even begun surrounding the topic.
“We wouldn’t be looking at expansion teams until the 2030s” – Jeff Passan
The main reasons for the delay involve a number of issues that Major League Baseball wants to get resolved prior to beginning these talks. The confusion surrounding the A’s heading to Las Vegas and the Rays’ new ownership and what that means for their future home are the two major issues.
Passan also seems like he is not too bullish on the idea of realignment, as it could spoil some of the growth that the league has seen across the last few years. If this were to actually happen, it would place a focus on smaller areas of the country.
This is especially confusing when you consider the fact that the 2023 CBA increased the number of interleague games so that every team plays each team at least once a year. This made MLB a much stronger league nationally than it had been prior.
Potential Lockout Talk
Aram opens this portion of the conversation by basically asking Passan if some of the recent growth and increased momentum of Major League Baseball can help alleviate some of the potential risks of a lockout.
After mentioning the 1994 strike, which eventually cancelled the World Series, Passan makes it clear that a labor war does nothing but drive fans away, and that’s exactly the case.
In a sport that has seen a huge rise in viewership over the last few years, it would be malpractice for a lockout to take the product away from fans. Especially when you consider the reason for it being that owners and players are potentially unable to agree on a number in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
While he does say that a possible lockout in December wouldn’t be surprising, he is confident that there will be a solution that results in zero lost games.
“I believe that there are enough levers in place that this is not going to spiral into that doomsday scenario… A lockout that causes them to miss games, that would surprise me. I think, I hope, that everyone involved is smarter than to let it get to that point.”
– Jeff Passan
Salary Cap
Now, a salary cap is one of the biggest topics in the modern age of baseball. With there now being several contracts of $700 million or more in Major League Baseball (Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani), many have speculated that owners may look to add a salary cap.
In the conversation, Peter asks Jeff if there is one specific thing that could lead to the “doomsday scenario” of games being missed or if it’s a collection of different issues. Passan’s response is short and clear.
“Salary cap. If owners insist on a salary cap, games will be missed.”
– Jeff Passan
Analytics in Modern Sports
Analytics is something that is seen throughout all professional sports, and there’s no escaping that. Now, the strategy in using them differs not just from every sport, but from every front office and organization.
It’s a difficult job to know which direction to go when it comes to making a decision based on analytics or not in a front office. However, Passan got some wrinkles of information from an NBA executive that gave a bit of insight into what that may be like.
To sum it up, he says that when starting a team from scratch, you should fully trust analytics and let them steer the ship. On the flip side, when you start to compete and see a window of success opening, the analytics can take a back seat, and the “feel” of a scout or executive can come into play significantly more.
Brewers’ Top Tier Development
The Brewers have never been the team to shell out a big check to free agents. Because of that reason, they’ve always been in the upper echelon when it comes to the development of their players and prospects.
However, Passan highlights a different department of their organization that many may not think about. For a long time, the Brewers were incompetent when it came to signing international players, especially in Latin America. However, when Mike Grootman came to Milwaukee, he changed a lot of how things were done internationally for the organization.
Passan pins this development for the Brewers as one of the most important when it comes to what makes them such a well-round organization in every facet.
Underrated Organizations – Seattle Mariners
Seattle is an organization that has seen a lot of success when it comes to identifying players and developing them in a way that maximizes their talent. Proof? Take a look at Just Baseball’s Top 100 Prospects list.
The Mariners have seven players in the top 100, with four of them coming inside the top 50.
Passan highlights the organization’s ability to find success in the draft.
While they have continuously hit in the earlier rounds, they’ve also developed some of their late-round picks into legit Major League contributors. Logan Evans, a 12th-round pick, is one of the many examples who has been a “godsend” for Seattle this year, as Passan puts it.
Looking Forward to Free Agency
Passan asks a couple of questions about some of the big bats that will hit the market this winter that will help determine their value.
- Is a DH, in his mid-30’s (Kyle Schwarber) going to warrant a 5-year contract?
- Do teams value Bo Bichette as a shortstop or a second baseman?
- Do Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso opt-out and add a couple of bats to the market?
- What’s Luiz Arraez going to get paid this winter?
More on Arraez
With Arraez, it’s an interesting case. As Passan mentions, we are going to see how much value the league truly places on batting average in its entirety. While it may not be as high as some may think, due to his lack of WAR accumulation and poor defense, he still puts the ball in play and avoids strikeouts as well as anybody.
Michael King’s Market
Michael King is definitely one of the hardest free agents to value in this upcoming class. In 2024, King was one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his first full year as a starter, he posted a 2.95 ERA in 30 starts. This season, it’s even better at a 2.81 ERA, but in only 57 innings as he’s dealt with multiple injuries.
Back-to-back injuries with a lack of time actually spent as a starting pitcher could be worrisome for teams looking to sign the 30-year-old. Passan doubles down on this by saying King is a very interesting case and that he’s one of, if not the, most obvious qualifying offer guys in the class.
Which Organizations Can Actually Spend On A Kyle Tucker?
The answer to this one is a bit surprising, but it makes sense. Tucker is far and away the best player in the upcoming class, especially considering he’s only 28 years old. As Tucker’s production has dipped in recent weeks and his price point similarly drops, teams are “licking their chops” at the idea of signing him.
Here’s what Passan has to say about who can realistically sign the Cubs outfielder:
“There are very few, to me, teams that can’t sign anyone. Juan Soto might be a different story… I think my point is more everyone can, it’s just a matter of who chooses to.” – Jeff Passan
At the end of the day, it comes down to what owners actually care about: winning and finding success. The majority of Major League Baseball teams can absolutely afford to sign the big names in the winter. However, most of them simply choose to save the money.
Philly’s Interesting Offseason
Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Saurez, and J.T. Realmuto are the big names that come to mind when thinking about the Phillies’ upcoming free agents.
Those are three important pieces to the Phillies and their success. To make things even more interesting, Zach Wheeler is having a major surgery to remove a blood clot that will likely sideline him for six to eight months.
Passan highlights the fact that Philadelphia is entering a real transitional phase as an organization. Not only in terms of free agents or stars, but also when it comes to how they decide to integrate some of their higher ranked prospects such as Andrew Painter (Just Baseball #17) or Aidan Miller (Just Baseball #52).
“There’s a lot of difficulty when going from one era to the next and the best organizations are the ones that navigate that smoothly.” – Jeff Passan
This winter, we’ll get a first-hand look at how the Phillies go about this transitional phase. With so many big pieces hitting free agency and a handful of exciting prospects, it’ll be interesting to see Dave Dombrowski’s plan and how he attacks this offseason.
Watch the Full Conversation with Jeff Passan
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Michael Monreal got his start in baseball media when he started his own website covering the San Francisco Giants after playing two years of college baseball.…