Kyle Schwarber Would Be a Real MVP Candidate… if He Could Pitch

The chants of M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P! are raining down on Kyle Schwarber these days at Citizens Bank Park. It’s not hard to see why.

In the final season of his four-year, $79 million contract, Schwarber has been better than ever for the Philadelphia Phillies. He leads the team in runs, RBI, total bases, walks, OPS, and wRC+. He’s on pace to tie Ryan Howard’s single-season franchise record of 58 home runs.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are pacing for 95 wins and their second straight NL East title. It wouldn’t be hard to argue that Schwarber has been their most valuable player. Indeed, as he keeps swatting Schwarbombs at such a prolific pace, the real question becomes: Is he more than just the Phillies’ MVP?

Take a look at any offensive leaderboard, and it’s clear that Schwarber has been one of the best hitters in the National League. No one has more home runs or RBI. His .959 OPS, .405 wOBA, and 162 wRC+ rank second – within sniffing distance of first.

The only problem is the guy who ranks ahead of him in all three categories: Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani has a 1.013 OPS to Schwarber’s .959. He has a .418 wOBA to Schwarber’s .405. He has a 173 wRC+ to Schwarber’s 162. Those aren’t huge gaps.

The only category in which Ohtani really has an insurmountable lead is runs. Schwarber ranks fifth in the NL with 81 runs scored. Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks second with 83. As for Ohtani? He’s already crossed the plate 112 times. That’s more runs than Schwarber has ever scored in a season.

Yet, Schwarber leads Ohtani in RBI (97 to 78), and the two are tied for the NL lead in home runs. Schwarber even has 10 stolen bases, not so far behind Ohtani’s 17 (and with a better success rate!).

The two are also tied with 99th percentile xwOBAs (.425), trailing only Juan Soto (.440) in the Senior Circuit.

All this to say, Ohtani has been the better hitter, but Schwarber isn’t all that far off. Either one of them could win the Silver Slugger at DH. Either one of them could win the Henry Aaron Award.

But only one of them can win the NL MVP.

In addition to his 42 home runs, 112 runs scored, and 1.013 OPS, Shohei Ohtani has a 2.37 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched.

His walk rate, hard-hit rate, and xERA are career bests. His whiff rate hasn’t been this high since his rookie season, and his chase rate has never been this high, period. He’s challenging opponents with high velocity in the strike zone, and it’s working.

While Ohtani has been limited to shorter outings thus far, he’s ramping up. By the end of the year, he could easily have 60-plus innings under his belt.

How is Schwarber supposed to compete with that?

Well, he’s not.

I’m not saying Ohtani is going to run away with the NL MVP. Pete Crow-Armstrong has a strong case. Paul Skenes does too.

The thing is, those two bring something different to the table. Crow-Armstrong is all but guaranteed to win the Gold Glove in center field, and he has a realistic shot at a 40-40 season. Skenes is tossing six innings per start with an ERA under 2.00.

The only case for Schwarber is his bat. And what a bat it is! But Ohtani has been just as productive at the plate, if not more so, and he’s dominating on the other side of the ball too.

If Schwarber were significantly out-hitting Ohtani, this would be a different conversation. Unfortunately, he’s already putting up the best numbers of his career – by far – and it’s not enough.

For Ohtani, this is just business as usual. He’s actually hitting slightly worse than he did in his last two MVP campaigns. There’s a reason Aaron Judge is the only person who’s beaten him for an MVP in the last four seasons.

Alternatively, if Schwarber were still a catcher, his season would be a whole lot more impressive. His offensive numbers are remarkably similar to those of Cal Raleigh, who’s been making headlines all year and giving Judge a run for his money in the AL MVP race.

Of course, there’s a reason those stats look so much more impressive on a catcher than a DH, and it’s the same reason Schwarber hasn’t started a game at catcher in almost a decade. Catching is really, really hard.

So, unless Schwarber has plans to take the mound any time soon, his path to an MVP is all but impossible to envision.

None of what I’m saying should be taken as a knock on Schwarber. After all, only one player has ever won an MVP as a full-time DH, and it took an unprecedented 50-50 season for him to do so.

Simply put, it’s hard to be the most valuable player when you’re only producing value in one way.

Schwarber has already surpassed his previous career highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR. Even so, he’s only on pace for about a 5.5-win season.

Since WAR became a popular stat in the early 2010s, no player has won an MVP with such a low total (shortened 2020 season aside).

Funnily enough, only two players have won the NL MVP with less than 6.0 bWAR in the past 20 years, and both of them were Phillies: Bryce Harper in 2021 (5.9 bWAR) and Ryan Howard in 2006 (5.2).

I don’t want anyone to read that fun fact and come away with the wrong impression. The point isn’t that there’s a precedent for Phillies sluggers winning MVPs with low WAR totals. Rather, what I’m trying to illustrate is that the kind of season Schwarber is having right now, while excellent, is rarely enough to secure an MVP.

If Schwarber keeps this up, he’s going to earn MVP votes at the end of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him among the finalists. He could even be the runner-up.

Yet, when it comes to being the MVP, he might have to settle for being the Phillies’ MVP. There’s certainly no shame in that.

The Phillies ended their 11-year postseason drought in his first year with the club. They’ve looked better and better in each season since. Schwarber has been instrumental in all that success, and he’ll look to play an instrumental role once again this October.

The M-V-P! chants from the Phillies faithful will continue for as long as Schwarber keeps slugging and the team keeps winning. At the end of the day, those are the MVP honors that matter most.