Eric Lauer Has Pitched Like the Blue Jays’ Unexpected Ace

When the Toronto Blue Jays took the field for Opening Day, many fans didn’t know what to expect from the 2025 squad. Most, likely, were disillusioned after multiple seasons of heartbreaking disappointment.

Then something happened. After a bumpy start and an uninspiring 26-28 record through May 27, the Blue Jays turned themselves into one of the best teams in Major League Baseball. They’re tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the most wins since May 28. They have the second-best record in the majors in that time at 41-20. Toronto and Canada are buzzing about the Blue Jays again.

Surprising seasons from up and down the roster have spurred that success. Apparently Nathan Lukes is now an MLB leadoff hitter. George Springer has resuscitated his career. Addison Barger burst onto the scene with light-tower power.

But perhaps no one contributor has been more surprising and arguably more important than Eric Lauer. The 30-year-old left-hander has been the unexpected ace of the Blue Jays’ starting rotation.

Stats updated prior to games on August 6.

Lauer Has Been Toronto’s Most Important Pleasant Surprise

Once a first-round pick and top prospect, Lauer had a 4.30 ERA over parts of six MLB seasons split between the San Diego Padres and Brewers. He found himself pitching in Korea at the end of last season, where he posted an unremarkable 4.93 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the Kia Tigers.

The Blue Jays offered him a minor league contract over the winter. Pitching to a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in Triple-A Buffalo, Lauer got the call to the big leagues on April 30 when the Blue Jays needed a warm body with an arm attached.

Lauer began by shuffling back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. Since June 11, however, he has given the team no choice but to let him cook as part of the starting five.

His 80 innings over 18 games (12 starts) don’t qualify for MLB leaderboards. If they did, his 2.59 ERA would rank sixth in the American League. His sparkling 0.98 WHIP would be tied for fifth-lowest with the Houston Astros’ Hunter Brown.

“I can’t say enough about it. [Lauer’s] our unsung MVP, there’s no doubt about it,” teammate Ernie Clement said after Lauer stymied the Detroit Tigers over eight innings of one-run ball on July 24. “He gives us a chance to win every time and then some. It’s special what he’s doing.”

Lauer is 7-2 and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts this season. He has only allowed opponents to score even three times twice.

What’s Made Eric Lauer So Good This Season?

The most fun part about what Lauer has done this season is how he has gone about baffling MLB hitters. He’s pitching like a throwback to the days when velocity wasn’t the be-all and end-all. He leans heavily on a four-seam fastball that barely scrapes 92 mph and an 86-mph cut fastball. The four-seamer has a 45% usage rate, while he throws the cutter 23% of the time.

And why wouldn’t he lean on those when they’ve registered a 95th percentile run value of 14? Batters are hitting just .184 and slugging .337 against those two offerings.

Lauer’s breaking pitches, a 75-mph curveball and an 83-mph slider, are also performing above average, with a 75th percentile run value. Batters have a .224 average (but a .177 xBA) and a .318 slugging percentage against his breaking stuff.

Without high velocity, Lauer has been relying on sequencing and location. Any damage allowed is limited thanks to his 5.7% walk rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile.

Speaking of limiting damage, despite owning one of the highest fly ball rates in the majors at 50.5%, he has one of the lowest home run-to-fly ball ratios at 7.4%. (For reference, Tarik Skubal has an 8.0% HR/FB). Generating weak contact in the air is an easy way to guarantee outs, and hitters are managing just a 6.0% barrel rate against the southpaw.

Lauer’s Future in Blue Jays’ Rotation Looks Murky

Despite Lauer’s success, his standing in the Blue Jays’ rotation is uncertain. It’s a veteran rotation, with established major league starters Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer.

While it’s been great having Lauer starting for the last couple of months, the problem is that the Blue Jays traded for Shane Bieber at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner is finishing his rehab assignment and is on track to join the rotation in the coming weeks. When that happens, Lauer looks like the odd man out.

There’s a chance that they go with a six-man rotation, temporarily. Keeping a starting staff that has an average age close to 34 fresh might not be a bad thing as the season wears into September. Especially with October baseball on the horizon.

Eventually, though, Lauer seems destined for bullpen duty. It’s unfathomable that the Blue Jays would even broach the subject with any of the other veteran starters.

Lauer’s track record is precisely what’s made his 2025 performance so exciting, but it is also ultimately what’s likely to send him back to the ‘pen.