Blue Jays Make High-Risk, High-Reward Trade for Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber hasn’t thrown a single pitch at the big-league level for this year’s Cleveland Guardians, but that did not stop the club from getting a valuable prospect for him at the trade deadline.

While Bieber is nearing a return to the majors, the Guardians, who currently sit at 54-54 this year with a nine-game deficit in the AL Central standings, flipped him to the Toronto Blue Jays early Thursday morning. Right-handed pitching prospect Khal Stephen is heading back to Cleveland in the one-for-one swap.

Bieber, 30, signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Guardians this past offseason with the understanding that he likely wouldn’t throw an inning in The Show until after the deadline. His deal also comes with a $16 million player option ($4 million buyout) for the 2026 campaign.

This deal feels like it could ultimately end up being a win-win for both teams involved, but let’s dive a little deeper and see what it means for both sides.

Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber From the Guardians

It’s been clear for a while now that the Blue Jays needed a true ace to lead their starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Eric Lauer have done a respectable job of holding the fort down, but none of them have emerged as the club’s rotation leader yet.

While each of this quintet as shown promise at times this year, none of them have instilled much confidence in their abilities to take the ball in a high stakes, do-or-die postseason games. The Blue Jays stood out as a team that could use a top-shelf arm like Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore at the deadline, but they elected to go the Bieber route instead.

Bieber comes with a ton of uncertainty since he’s on his way back from a Tommy John surgery. He’ll be able to take the mound for the club down the stretch, but there’s certainly a fair amount of risk involved here.

On his way back to the big leagues this year, Bieber has made a total of four rehab starts in the minors. In 11.1 innings of work, he’s posted a 1.59 ERA with 21 strikeouts and just one walk, looking a lot like his Cy Young-winning self from the recent past.

At his best, Bieber is a multi-time All-Star who won the pitching Triple Crown in 2020 and has regularly been one of the game’s premier starting pitchers. The Blue Jays took a gamble here, but if he comes back to the big leagues and looks like his old self, this trade should be a huge win for Toronto regardless of how Stephen fares for the Guardians.

The hope is that Bieber goes against expectations and picks up his player option for next year instead of testing out the open market again. If he picks it up, the Blue Jays have themselves a bona fide staff ace for an entire year, which is something they desperately need.

What the Guardians Are Getting Back

Stephen, Just Baseball’s No. 89 prospect in our latest update, is one of many recent success stories out of the Blue Jays’ farm system. The club’s prospect depth has quickly gone from laughingstock level to one that’s underrated and filled with promising talent. Stephen is one of the latest out-of-nowhere arms that the Blue Jays turned into a notable prospect.

Across three minor league levels this year, Stephen has made 17 starts (and one relief appearance) and gone 9-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 2.66 FIP. He has struck out 99 batters and walked 18 in 91.2 innings of work. At the time of the trade, he’s on the 7-day injured list with an undisclosed injury, but the concern level is clearly low.

Here’s a more detailed scouting report on Stephen, courtesy of Aram Leighton:

89. Khal Stephen – RHP – Toronto Blue Jays

Height/Weight: 6’4″, 220 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 2nd Round (59), 2024 (TOR) | ETA: 2027

A big right-hander with a low-effort delivery, Stephen fills up the strike zone with a hoppy fastball and intriguing secondaries that have leveled up since turning pro.

Arsenal

While he mixes in five offerings, Stephen’s fastball sets the tone for his arsenal, throwing it north of 50% of the time with the impressive characteristics it features setting up his secondaries well. Sitting 92-94 MPH, Stephen generates plus carry and above average extension from a somewhat short arm path, causing it to get on hitters quickly and play well at the top of the zone.

Both Stephen’s slider and splitter are above average offerings with good vertical action to pair with his heater. The mid-80s gyro slider picks up plenty of chase at the bottom of the zone along with above average ground ball rates. The same could be said for Stephen’s splitter which looks a lot like his fastball out of his hand, but averages barely over 1,000 RPM in the mid-80s. With more than 16 inches of vertical separation, Stephen picks up even more in-zone whiff with the pitch and gaudy ground ball numbers.

The right-hander will also mix in a cutter that flashes at least average and a taste-breaking curveball. His strong command of the cutter helps it play like an average pitch more frequently.

Outlook

Stephen has quickly looked like a great get for the Blue Jays in the 2024 draft, pairing with first round selection Trey Yesavage to provide a jolt to the organization’s pitching depth. The big right-hander has impressed with his ability to pound the strike zone as a pro, particularly with his fastball and splitter which both generate good whiff numbers within the zone. Stephen has the looks of a quality back end rotation piece who is built to eat innings.

Closing Thoughts

This trade is one that was necessary to make for both sides. The Blue Jays needed a pitcher that can lead their starting rotation, and Bieber – when healthy – fits that bill perfectly. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll look once he returns to The Show, but his rehab outings have provided hope that he’ll be able to return without issues. If he picks up that player option for next year, it’s going to be huge for the Blue Jays.

With Emmanuel Clase’s pending suspension and the Guardians’ playoff hopes trending downward, it made sense for Cleveland to send Bieber packing just to try and get whatever value they could out of him. To move a player that hasn’t thrown a single inning at the big-league level this year for a top-100 prospect is big for the Guardians’ decision-makers. Both sides seem to have accomplished what they set out to do in a deal like this.