2025 NCAA Baseball Super Regional Preview: Duke vs. Murray State

Series Overview

Duke Blue Devils

• Overall: 40-19
• Conference: 17-13
• RPI: 30
• SOS: 34

Murray State 

• Overall: 42-14
• Conference: 17-8
• RPI: 67
• SOS: 222

I mentioned this in our last super regional preview, but this is also not a Super Regional we would’ve projected. The gritty Duke Blue Devils went to Athens and showcased why too many people slept on them throughout the year, especially with their early-season struggles.

Meanwhile, Murray State came out of nowhere and absolutely shocked the world by taking down the #1 seed in the Oxford Regional in Ole Miss. This scrappy group has so much team chemistry and plays with a chip on their shoulder. This should make for a hell of a series. 

Team Strengths & Weaknesses

Duke Blue Devils

Grit. That’s been the motto for Duke all season long and likely their biggest strength coming into the Super Regional. They play with a ton of fire and never give up attitude. It’s been a common theme even when they’ve faced adversity. 

This team can slug it as well. The 14th-ranked in the entire nation in home runs, and you saw the power on display in the Athens Regional. Ben Miller has hit 20 long balls, AJ Gracia has hit 13, Jake Hyde has 11, and Tyler Albright has 10. 

On top of the pop, their bats showcase a patient approach and will work pitchers’ pitch counts up. They ranked 1st in walk rate. 

The concerns for the Blue Devils remain on the mound. They posted a team ERA of 4.83, and their rotation has very much struggled with consistency. Kyle Johnson pitched well in the regional, but he was expected to be their ace this season and has posted a 6.34 ERA. 

The rotation gives up a lot of hard contact and walks quite a few guys. They showed more consistency in the Athens Regional, and if they can remain locked in, they’ll give the Blue Devils a solid chance to make it to Omaha. 

Murray State Racers

The slept on Racers were not your typical four seed. This is a team that ranked high in many offensive categories, and it felt like not many people realized it. 

This team ranked 20th in runs scored per game, 13th in walk percentage, 19th in strikeout percentage, 47th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, and 37th in wRC+. Sure, this was all in the Missouri Valley Conference, but it’s still impressive. 

Dustin Mercer and Dom Decker have been the tablesetters for this team. They’re pesky, and all they do is make contact. Mercer is hitting over .350, and Decker is hitting .346 on the season. Then have thump too, as Jonathan Hogart has 19 home runs, Carson Garner has 16 home runs, and Will Vierling and Dan Tauken both have ten each. This team bangs.

On the pitching side, things are more questionable. While they are 57th in runs allowed per game and 44th in team ERA, they rank low in terms of strikeout and walk percentages. There is a lot of traffic on the bases, although they find ways out of jams. 

This is a high-floor team that just does a lot of things right, and one you don’t want to sleep on. I guarantee you that Duke is definitely not after watching them in Oxford. 

Recent Regional Performance

Duke Blue Devils

We’ve got to give it up for the gritty, never-say-die Duke Blue Devils. This team just keeps proving people wrong. Duke stormed back in the late innings to knock off Oklahoma State 3-2 and punch its ticket to the Super Regionals, capping off a wild run through the Athens Regional. 

Down two in the eighth, AJ Gracia sparked the comeback with a solo shot, and Sam Harris followed with a clutch 114 mph two-run single up the middle to flip the game. The bullpen duo of Gabe Nard and Reid Easterly locked it down, with Easterly slamming the door in the ninth. 

Hyde led the way offensively with a 3-hit day, while Harris, Hyde, and Wallace Clark, who was named Most Outstanding Player, were among four Blue Devils named to the All-Tournament Team. Not bad for a team that was left for dead early in the season.

Murray State Racers

The Oxford Regional turned into the stage for one of the best Cinderella stories of the tournament, and Murray State was at the center of it. Coming in as a No. 4 seed, the Racers shocked everyone by taking down Ole Miss 9–6 on Friday and then following it up with a 13–11 slugfest win over Georgia Tech. 

Their upset over Ole Miss marked the program’s first NCAA Tournament win since 1979, highlighted by Jonathan Hogart’s leadoff homer and Dustin Mercer’s four doubles, tying an NCAA record.

By Sunday night, Murray State was the only No. 4 seed in the country, sitting at 2–0 and in the driver’s seat of their regional. In the first championship game, the Rebels’ offense exploded for a 19–8 win, fueled by five home runs, including two from Will Furniss. 

That set the stage for an epic winner-take-all showdown on Monday night, where Murray State battled to the very end and ultimately punched their first-ever ticket to a Super Regional. It was the kind of story that reminds you why we love postseason baseball.

MLB Draft Players to Watch

Duke Blue Devils

LHP James Tallon

Don’t let the 4.46 ERA fool you, Tallon has been an electric factory while pitching mostly out of the bullpen for the Blue Devils. He did try to start a couple of games, but the game relegated him back to the bullpen.

It’s a solid fastball with good carry, and it’s been up to 95 MPH, although it sits more in the low-90s. He’s got some solid secondaries in his slider and cutter. Likely a relief arm at the next level, he’ll get some looks at the next level thanks to his intriguing fastball. 

OF AJ Gracia

AJ Gracia stands out as a top prospect for the 2026 MLB Draft thanks to his combination of hitting prowess and plate discipline.

In his first two seasons at Duke, he maintained a .300 batting average with 28 home runs and 111 RBIs, while drawing 103 walks and striking out only 90 times, showcasing his advanced approach at the plate. He’s got a smooth left-handed swing and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. 

Predictions

This feels like a series that will likely go the distance, potentially lasting the full three games. I am expecting a lot of back and forth in this one.

I want to say that Duke will punch their ticket to Omaha with ease, but Murray State has shown on the big stage that that won’t be the case. The Racers are pesky and scrappy and will make this challenging for Duke. I do believe that the Blue Devils will come out on top because it feels like they have the same mentality as Murray State, but with a bit of extra talent, depth-wise.