Buy or Sell: Fantasy Baseball Roster Trends

We have all settled into our teams by now. The initial flurry of roster moves in the first month to two months have settled down and you might even be looking to make a move just because you are bored. Even if you are staying put, others aren’t.

We are now in the prospects getting called up part of the season which brings us to a roster trend discussion. Who’s getting dropped, picked up, and if you should follow those trends or stay away. Today I’ll look at the five names who are getting added and dropped the most in ESPN leagues and share my opinions on each.

Frequently Added Players

The first few weeks is where you need to capitalize on adding players. Often times if you miss out early you’ll spend the rest of the year asking why you didn’t make the move when you had the chance. It can be risky, but having one or two roster spots where you filter in and out hot streaks is never a bad idea.

*Players with 50% of higher ownership have been omitted

Chase Burns- SP – Cincinnati Reds (+24.1%)

Stop reading this and go pick up Chase Burns. Not because he’s some sure thing, bulletproof, starter, but because he has the best strikeout potential left in the free agent pool. Burns dazzled through the minors the season striking out 12.44 per nine while posting a 1.77 ERA and 2.13 FIP.

There’s a reason why Burns is arguably the best pitching prospect in the sport. A talent of this level does not come available often and he’s worth the roll of the dice. Even if he does not immediately pitch well, the upside is simply too good to pass up on.

Grant Holmes – SP – Atlanta Braves (+12.6%)

I had Holmes on my “wait and see” section of a recent waiver wire article and truly regret it. No more waiting and seeing. Not after following up his 15 strikeout outing with 5.2 innings of no run ball. Now, he did face the Rockeis and Marlins, but I think Holmes offers enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs he’ll give up.

The Braves have been a let down this season making his potential to earn wins less than you would expect. What I do like is how often they allow him to work deeper into games which gives you more opportunities to collect stats.

Alec Burleson – OF/1B – St. Louis Cardinals (+12.4)

Burleson has put together a career year. He’s always made elite contact, doesn’t strikeout, and the power is going to tick up. He’s running a career best 91.4 mph average exit velocity and has lifted the ball more than last season.

However, I’m going to let him sit on the waiver wire for now. At least until that power really starts to pick up. He’s a platoon bat that doesn’t offer enough power, yet, for the position he would be filling.

Miguel Vargas – 1B/3B – Chicago White Sox (+12.3)

The Miguel Vargas turnaround has been fun to watch. He’s already doubled his home run output from last season in the same amount of games while also dropping his strikeout rate by eight percent. His timing is much better this season and it’s paying off with better contact data.

I’ll say Vargas is an add in deeper leagues. Although the raw power numbers look better seven of his 10 home runs came in May. I have my reservations for adding Vargas in a 10 man league where you likely can find a better option at 1B/3B.

Nick Kurtz – 1B – Athletics (+10.7)

I’m buying into Kurtz as a pick up immediately. The strikeouts have been a problem (32%) but the power is too good to pass up. In only 40 games Kurtz has 10 home runs while slashing .246/.304/.507 good for a 121 wRC+.

I watched a game Sunday night where Kurtz took an outside pitch and hit a line drive the other way over the shortstops head. Seeing a young player who’s so power focused take that pitch and drive it for a base knock was a great sign. He continues to impress me and I think he’ll only get better.

Frequently Dropped Players

Here’s where you can get in the most trouble. A frustrating start from a proven veteran can be temping to drop, but for most cases you should hold tight. Patience can pay off here.

Griffin Canning – SP – New York Mets – (- 12.3%)

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Canning was a buzzy name in fantasy after a great start to the season but he cooled off in May and has a 5.66 ERA in June. His command is always key and when that slips so do his outings. However, I think I would be willing to hold on for another start or two.

I know he’s struggled as of late, but I think his good outings are still better than most streamers you might be picking up. Although I’m not very confident, I’m sticking with Canning, for now.

Zach Eflin – SP – Baltimore Orioles – (-10.3%)

Yup, go ahead and follow the trend and drop Eflin. The 2023 Eflin is no where to be found and his whiff numbers continue to drop and the contact continues to get harder. Although he does not walk many, he’s also not striking anyone out.

Baltimore has had a season from hell and at the very least dropping Eflin will spare you from watching any Baltimore baseball.

Kristian Campbell- 2B/OF – Boston Red Sox/AAA – (-9.3%)

Campbell was recently sent back to Triple-A but many are debating keeping him rostered until he is recalled. Not me. I’d go ahead and drop Campbell, who’s .480 OPS over the past two weeks sent him packing. There’s still great long term upside for the 22 year-old, but he has learning to do.

Campbell’s swing has been discussed numerous times by our own Aram Leighton and I think he might be right. There needs to be some mechanical changes in order for Campbell’s raw talent to shine more consistently.

Noah Cameron – SP – Kansas City Royals – (-8%)

Is starting pitching so deep that we are tossing Cameron to the wolves? Yes, there are expected stats and some advanced metrics pointing toward regression but I’d ride with Cameron until we truly see it.

In his eight starts Cameron has allowed more than two runs once – a six run outing in St. Louis. He’s been elite at missing barrels and should at least fill out the back of your fantasy rotation. Hang in there, don’t get married to the thought, but don’t overreact too fast.

Lars Nootbar – OF – St. Louis Cardinals – (-7%)

I know this isn’t fair, but I’m sick of the Lars Nootbar hype. We often see outliers with poor metrics still perform but Nootbar is the rare player with great metrics that don’t quite match the production. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid player, but not so much for fantasy.

I’d say go ahead and drop Nootbar. We have a good idea of what he is as a fantasy player – a deep league option who’s what if scenarios are running thing.