Buy or Sell, the Atlanta Braves Struggles to Start the Season

There is a lot to unpack for Atlanta Braves fans so far this season, and admittedly, most of it has been quite negative.

The Braves are off to a 0-7 start, the first time since 2016 that they have lost the first seven games of a season. They have been outscored 14-32, including a brutal 29-inning scoreless streak.

For the most part, the pitching staff has done its job and given the Braves every chance to win. The offense, however, has been a complete disaster.

Jurickson Profar has been suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s PED policies, Ronald Acuña Jr is still working back from injury, and Sean Murphy has just begun his rehab stint in Triple-A following a rib injury during Spring Training.

Profar’s absence will be significant, as his 80-game suspension began this past Tuesday and will be ineligible for post-season play, if Atlanta were to qualify. However, the returns of Murphy and eventually Acuña Jr in May should bolster the lineup.

But that’s no excuse for how the offense has performed thus far. Even with injuries, this lineup should be producing significantly better offensive numbers.

Atlanta finally returns home on Friday after arguably the toughest road trip a team could have to start a season, traveling over 2,100 miles to play the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s not forget that these teams bolster two of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.

Historically, batters start slower than pitchers, especially when facing the likes of Michael King, Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, and Blake Snell. Many fans may not fully understand just how difficult this stretch has been for Atlanta. The good news? That road trip is over.

In MLB history, no team that has started 0-7 has made the playoffs, and for the last 42 years, no team that has started 0-7 has even finished with a winning record. When the Braves started 0-7 back in 2016, they went on to finish the year 68-93. It was the one time the Braves have ever finished last in the NL East after joining the division back in 1994.

Now, this Braves team is much better than that team was a decade ago. Last year, they proved they were a team talented enough to withstand adversity, especially when you aren’t playing arguably the two best teams in baseball.

So this home series over the weekend is a chance for the Braves to start over, but some of the problems of the last week won’t go away simply because they return home. Let’s buy or sell some of the storylines emerging from the first two series of the year.

Lack of Offense from Stars – Sell

Buying the lack of offense of this caliber after just seven games would be an overreaction. Up to this point, yes, they have been one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Atlanta is currently dead last in team batting average (.151) and OPS (.485), and bottom three in baseball in hits, runs, RBIs, and strikeouts. The offense has simply not shown up through the first two series of the year.

However, star players don’t typically experience sudden and drastic declines. It’s reasonable to expect that over the course of the season, their numbers will trend back toward their career or recent averages.

Players will improve, and the lineup will get deeper with Murphy and Acuña Jr’s return. I expect by June, we will look at this past road trip and see a completely different team.

Drake Baldwin’s Slow Start – Sell

Baldwin fits into the above category, but his start deserves a closer look. He currently sports a 71.4% Hard Hit rate on 14 batted balls, which ranks him 4th in the MLB with players who have at least 10 batted balls this season.

Baldwin ranks behind only Aaron Judge, Alec Bohm, and Kameron Misner in this metric. His 21.4% Barrel rate ranks him 33rd in baseball, above players such as Kyle Schwarber, Randy Arozarena, and Brent Rooker with similar plate appearances.

His expected numbers may be even more impressive.

While Baldwin’s surface-level stats appear forgettable, the underlying metrics show he has been making elite contact to start his young career. Luck just simply has not been on his side. I understand some are skeptical towards expected stats, but these numbers just do not lie. Drake Baldwin is a Major League hitter.

Corner Outfield is a Concern – Buy

This is a legitimate concern for Atlanta. Heading into the season, the outfield was set with Jurickson Profar in left, Michael Harris in center, and Jarred Kelenic in right until Acuña Jr returns. The revolving door of the Braves’ corner outfield seemingly had been closed for the next three years.

Now with the Profar suspension, that door has swung open yet again.

I recently wrote about Atlanta’s options currently within the organization, but all signs point to Kelenic getting a prime opportunity to once again prove himself as a starting-caliber big leaguer.

Other options include Bryan De La Cruz, Eli White, Dylan Fairchild, and Alex Verdugo but regardless of who gets the starting nod from game to game, none of these options are who Atlanta had hoped to rely on for 2025. One or more of these players will need to step up for the Braves if they want to dig themselves out of an 0-7 start.

Despite the suspension, Profar is still signed for three seasons. An impactful in-season acquisition looks unlikely unless Alex Anthopoulos finds a deal he is willing to make.

Atlanta’s Starting Pitching is Not Enough – Sell

At the time of writing this, Reynaldo López has been placed on the IL, but the extent of his absence remains unknown. His loss will hurt no matter what, but I’m not ready to sell a rotation featuring Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and soon, the return of Spencer Strider.

Sale has surrendered three earned runs in each of his first two outings, but his stuff looked sharp and his command remained solid. Sometimes, elite offenses like the Padres and Dodgers simply get to a pitcher, no matter how good they are. Schwellenbach’s outing of six innings, four strikeouts, and zero runs allowed speaks for itself.

Grant Holmes struggled in his lone start so far, lasting just four innings while allowing four runs, four walks, and striking out three batters. Last year, Holmes shined as he pitched to a 97th-percentile chase rate, a 92nd-percentile whiff rate, and a 90th-percentile walk rate. The hope is that, like the offense, he trends towards his averages from last season as the year goes on.

The last spot in the rotation will be a question mark, however. A.J. Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder have made solid but unspectacular starts, and the likes of José Suarez, Darius Vines, Hurston Waldrep, Dylan Dodd, and more could factor in. Atlanta has managed a revolving-door approach in the past, and that trend will likely continue this season.

If the offense can return to form and the rotation of Sale, Schwellenbach, Holmes, and Strider performs as expected, the final spot in the rotation will not be as big of an issue as currently perceived.

Bullpen Questions – Buy

The bullpen took a lot of heat during the Padres series, and deservedly so, but the bulk of the damage came from one reliever: Hector Neris. Outside of Neris, the bullpen has been serviceable.

Dylan Lee has appeared in four games, surrendering just two hits and one earned run. Pierce Johnson, appearing in three games, has given up just two hits, has a K:BB ratio of 4:1, and has yet to give up a run.

Daysbel Hernandez had been solid in his first three appearances, giving up one hit, but lost command against the Dodgers on Wednesday and was replaced mid at-bat by Brian Snitker.

Rasiel Iglesias had a solid outing in his first apearance but blew a potential five-out save after coming into the game mid-AB as he gave up the game-tying double to Max Muncy and the eventual walk-off home run to Shohei Ohtani.

Aaron Bummer’s advanced metrics have typically been strong, including top 5% xSLG each of his last two seasons. However, he has been prone to giving up runs, as we have seen in each of his first two appearances. Enyel De Los Santos and José Suarez have historically high ERAs and WHIPs.

The final bullpen spot has rotated between Neris and Jesse Chavez, both of whom have since been DFA’d, and now Zach Thompson.

As with the rotation, expect more arms from Triple-A to fill voids in the bullpen as the year goes on. Roddy Muñoz, Domingo Gonzalez, Buck Farmer, and Craig Kimbrel should all make appearances in Atlanta this season as Brian Snitker tries to piece the pen together.

Atlanta Will Miss the Playoffs – Sell, Sell, Sell

A horrible start can put a team in a tough spot, but no team secures or loses a playoff spot in April. The season is long with inevitable ups and downs, and at the end of the year every game counts the same.

Since the Wild Card was implemented in 1995, there have been multiple teams that have started slow but went on to make the postseason. Just last year, the Houston Astros started the season 7-19 but won the AL West.

In 2019, the Washington Nationals began the year 19-31 but went on to win the World Series. The 2018 Dodgers (12-16), 2015 Rangers (7-14), and 2006 Twins (9-15) all suffered slow starts but rallied to win their divisions as well.

Atlanta fans can just look back into recent seasons for confidence as well. Both the 2021 and 2022 Braves had slow starts to their seasons but bounced back to make the postseason.

I completely understand the panic currently ravaging Braves Country. This team has not looked like the team we expected to see after a slow off-season that many were critical about.

We have all seen the stat of “no team has ever started 0-7 and made the playoffs” floating around social media. I argue that none of those teams had the expectations or the talent of the Atlanta Braves. Win the home opener on Friday night vs the Miami Marlins, and they will have the same record as the Astros had just last year (1-7).

If there is a team equipped to handle this type of start and make history, it’s the Atlanta Braves. The offense will hit, the pitching will settle, necessary transactions will be made, and the Braves will win ball games. Let’s take a deep breath and enjoy the next six months of baseball.