Cincinnati Reds Prospect Report
Breaking down each top 100 prospect in the Cincinnati Reds farm system, and also who have been their biggest risers and fallers this season?
The Reds have created some buzz over the past few days thanks to a winning streak keeping their post season dreams alive. However, today, we are going to focus on some future Reds. Following the draft, we see updates to prospect list which is a great time to update you on some of the top names in the system.
Top 100 Players
Let’s go ahead and get the disclaimer out of the way. The Reds have graduated a significant amount of top prospects in the past 15 months.
Obviously, the system list will take a hit because of that. However, reloading is always important and the Reds have some mixed reviews on top 100 list.
For this exercise, we will use our own top 100 along with Pipelines. Because Baseball America is behind a paywall, we will keep their list to subscribers.
Just Baseball Top 100: Chase Burns (P) no. 40, Rhett Lowder (P) no. 77
MLB Pipeline Top 100: Chase Burns (P) no. 24, Rhett Lowder (P) no.35, Edwin Arroyo (SS) no. 72, Sal Stewart (3B/2B) no. 85
Chase Burns, the Reds number two overall selection from this years draft, tops both list. Burns has a fastball that reaches 99 mph with a great slider to work off it. He has yet to pitch in the Reds organization but has some similarities to Hunter Greene when he was selected second overall.
Lowder, a Wake Forrest product like Burns, was taken in the first round in 2023. After a so-so start in Double-A, Lowder has settled in allowing only two runs across his past five starts.
Batters were making a lot of contact off Lowder to start his Double-A career but less of late. He’ll likely finish this season in the minors but could join the Reds at some point next season.
Arroyo and Stewart have both been sidelined with injuries. Arroyo, who’s about to turn 21, has missed the entire season. The slick fielding, switch-hitting shortstop has always been young for his level but still produced solid numbers. He has some speed and enough power to realistic think he can grow into 20 home run power at the highest level.
Stewart, who is one of my personal favorites, slashed .279/.391/.454 with eight home runs and a 143 wRC+ in 80 games for High-A Dayton. At only 20, Stewart has plenty of upside to tap into. Where, or what position, he will play is to be determined but his bat will get him in the lineup. Plus contact, power, and a good eye for the zone is a recipe for success.
Whos next? Cam Collier was likely on the outside looking in. At only 19, he has plently of time to work his way onto top 100 list. The power is legit, but concerns about his swing and miss are there. I doubt he plays third long term, so we could be looking at a DH/1B giving more pressure on his bat.
MLB Pipeline Movement
We all know prospect list change often. Poor performance, injuries, and popup prospects can shake up any list from update to update. Below is Pipeline’s May list (left) and most recent August update (right), which includes recent draftees.
| May 2024 | August 2024 |
| No. 1 Rhett Lowder – P | Chase Burns – P – ’24 1st Round |
| No. 2 Noevli Marte – 3B | Rhett Lowder – P |
| No. 3 Edwin Arroyo – SS | Edwin Arroyo – SS |
| No. 4 Cam Collier – 3B | Sal Stewart – 3B/2B |
| No. 5 Connor Phillips – P | Cam Collier – 3B |
| No. 6 Chase Petty – P | Tyson Lewis – SS – ’24 2nd Round |
| No. 7 Sal Stewart – 3B | Alfredo Duno – C |
| No. 8 Carlos Jorge – 2B/OF | Chase Petty – P |
| No. 9 Ricardo Cabrera – SS/3B | Sammy Stafura – SS |
| No. 10 Alfredo Duno – C | Ricardo Cabrera – SS/3B |
| No. 11 Blake Dunn – OF | Julian Aguiar – P |
| No. 12 Ty Floyd – P | Hector Rodriguez – OF |
| No. 13 Hector Rodriguez – OF | Luke Holman – P – ’24 2nd Round |
| No. 14 Lyon Richardson – P | Mike Sirota – OF – ’24 3rd Round |
| No. 15 Sammy Stafura – SS | Rece Hinds – OF |
| No. 16 Rece Hinds – OF | Connor Phillips – P |
| No. 17 Julian Aguiar – P | Carlos Jorge – OF |
| No. 18 Cole Schoenwetter – P | Blake Dunn – OF |
| No. 19 Leo Balcazar – SS | Sheng-En Lin – SS/3B |
| No. 20 Victor Acosta – 2B/SS | Ty Floyd – P |
| No. 21 Adolfo Sanchez – OF | Peyton Stovall – 2B – ’24 4th Round |
| No. 22 Sheng-En Lin – SS/OF | Tristian Smith – P – ’24 5th Round |
| No. 23 Ethan O’Donnell – OF | Zach Maxwell – P |
| No. 24 Jacob Hurtubise – OF | Cole Schoenwetter – P |
| No. 25 Jay Allen – OF | Adolfo Sanchez – OF |
| No. 26 Carlos Sanchez – 3B | Adam Serwinowski – P |
| No. 27 Zach Maxwell – P | Lyon Richardson – P |
| No. 28 Esmith Pineda – OF | Naibel Mariano – SS |
| No. 29 Naibel Mariano – SS | Leo Balcazar – SS |
| No. 30 Adam Serwinowski – P | Kyle Henry – OF |
Risers
With only one graduate, and not many players taking a big leap, we only saw a few risers. Sammy Stafura moved up six spots thanks to a 126 wRC+ in Low-A. An abysmal start to his pro career was quickly turned around this season. We’ll see if he can tap into more power as he develops, but his glove will allow him to stick at short.
Julian Aguiar also moved up six spots and currently is in Triple-A. The strikeout numbers are not what they have been in the past but he has some craft to him and at the very least can be a depth option. Aguiar is Rule 5 eligible this December and I expect him to be added to the 40-man.
Zach Maxwell and Adam Serwinowski each were bumped four spots. Maxwell, a reliver, has a fastball that reaches 100 mph with plenty of strikeout stuff with a concerning amount of walks. Serwinowski has impressed in Low-A striking out 11 per nine thanks to an improving fastball and filthy slider. The 6’5″ lefty has a unique delivery with some deception allowing the fastball to surprise batters.
Fallers
Part of adding a new draft class into the fold means some players will be pushed back, and off the list. However, the Reds have had a few prospect struggle enough to be responsible for their own drop.
Off the List: Victor Acosta, Ethan O’Donnell, Jay Allen, Jacob Hurtubise, Carlos Sanchez, Esmith Pineda
Drops (no. of spots): Lyon Richardson (13), Connor Phillips (11), Leo Balcazar (10), Carlos Jorge (9), Blake Dunn (7), Ty Floyd (8)
The biggest name of this list is Connor Phillips, who has had a disaster of a season. After 14 starts of 10.11 ERA ball in Triple-A, Phillips was sent to Arizona to try to figure out what was wrong.
He had zero command of any of his pitches, which lead to a 7.89 BB/9 while also taking away from his strikeout numbers. Too many walks, too many home runs. I doubt we see him again this season and hopefully a reset can get Phillips back on track.
Lyon Richardson was higher in May than I would have expected. I have expected a move to the bullpen for some time and Louisville has started using him in more of a bulk bullpen role with mixed results. There’s still a chance he can be productive if shorter stints lead to his fastball playing up and a smaller pitch mix to work off it.
Outfield is a position of need for the Reds and a number of outfield prospects landed on this fallers list. Carlos Jorge is not making enough contact since joining High-A Dayton, but he has youth on his side.
Blake Dunn struggled with an injury early in the season, recently has been better, but overall has been disappointing between Triple-A and a brief stint in the majors.
I think we saw why Jacob Hurtubise dropped. There’s just next to zero power and his other tools do not make up for it.
Victor Acosta, acquired in the Brandon Drury trade, has not developed as the Reds had hoped. The 20-year-old infielder is slashing .186/.303/.290 with no power. The hit tool is further behind than many had projected when he was a bigger name prospect a few years back.
Quick Notes on other Top 30 Prospects
- Chase Petty has not had the smoothest transition to Double-A. A 4.80 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and a 8.47 K/9. He’s walking more batters than years past, but it should be noted the Lookouts are down right awful and the defense behind him hasn’t done him any favors. Far from truly worried about Petty.
- Alfredo Duno, a major international free agent, has been sidelined with injury the majority of the season. Several prospect analyst think a move off catcher is more likely than not but his bat has enough potential to keep you excited.
- Hector Rodriguez caught some eyes since joining the Reds in the Tyler Naquin trade, but the free swinger’s profile scares off some evaluators. We rarely walks, swings at everything, but does make contact. The quality of that contact would improve if he can learn to swing at less balls outside of the zone.
- Sheng-En Lin, another intriguing international free agent, is slashing .308/.418/.419 good for a 120 wRC+ at the complex. However, his 31.6% strikeout rate is something to monitor. When he was signed, the Reds listed him as a two way player but he is a full time position player now. After playing some outfield last year, Lin has only played third and short.
Names to Know Outside the Top 30
- Reds 2020 first-round pick Austin Hendrick has continued to struggle. A 35.5% strikeout rate, for the third straight season, with no power (.097 ISO) and a 64 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s Rule 5 eligible this season and will not be protected by the Reds.
- Ryan Cardona, a 19th round pick in 2021, has been terrific this season. A 3.35 ERA, 3.19 FIP, with 104 strikeouts in 88.2 innings. Another Rule 5 eligible player who probably would not be selected, but has shown enough for a conversation.
- Yerlin Confidan has some of the loudest tools in the system. He’s put up a 114 mph exit velocity while slowly cutting down his strikeout rate and showing a better approach at the plate. A boom or bust prospect that I think could land on these list soon.
Final Thoughts
Personally, I think the Reds system took a small step back this season. We’ll see how the recent draftee’s change that, but Petty and Phillips did not take a step forward and not enough players have truly changed their trajectory. With few potential major leaguers in Double and Triple-A there’s a lot of pressure on hoping the lower minors develop.
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