Yoshinobu Yamamoto Looks Like the True Ace of the Dodgers
With a filthy seven-pitch arsenal and a growing sense of swagger, the Dodgers’ $325M investment is starting to look like a Cy Young-caliber ace in year two.
In Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s most recent start last Friday against the Chicago Cubs, he did his talking on the field, and in his postgame interview.
Against a Cubs team that currently leads the majors in runs scored, Yamamoto tossed six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, one walk and just two hits allowed. His splitter was a cheat code, sitting 92–93 mph and inducing five whiffs, all against lefties.
No surprise then that his performance ended up featured on Rob Friedman’s PitchingNinja YouTube channel (246k subs) in a video titled “Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Stuff is Unreal!” (April 12th).
“The grouping on Yamamoto’s splitter is like the grouping of deGrom’s sliders when deGrom is at his very best,” Friedman said in the video.
That’s high praise. And Yamamoto is far from a one-trick pony. The second-year starter is averaging 95.8 mph on his fastball and spotting it with bullseye precision. But he throws it 38.8% of the time, keeping hitters off balance with that splitter (30.3% usage) and an even deeper bag of tricks: a cutter that dives in on lefties and tails away from righties, a sinker with wicked run, a curveball, a slider and a sweeper – all thrown in any count.
Seven pitches. All commanded with surgical precision.
Now, as he prepares for a must-watch showdown against Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers on Friday, Yamamoto enters with a 1.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 22 innings. And this could be more than a hot start, it could be the evolution of a future Cy Young winner in real time.
Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts saw it coming. After Yamamoto’s first start of 2025 in Tokyo, he praised his pitcher’s renewed confidence:
I think that last year to this year, the confidence, the conviction that he has in throwing the fastball in the strike zone is much, much more convicted. And so you saw that tonight. And so if he can do that, obviously (with) health, I see no reason why he won’t be in the Cy Young conversation this season.
Yamamoto has done more than back up his manager’s prediction, he’s obliterated any doubts about his ceiling. According to Baseball Savant, Yamamoto ranks in the 98th percentile in pitching run value, 99th in fastball run value, 94th in offspeed run value, 85th in whiff rate, and 95th in ground ball rate. His 2.33 xERA confirms the dominance isn’t a fluke.
But as striking as the metrics are, the bigger story may be his composure and conviction his manager alluded to. At times during his rookie campaign in 2024, Yamamoto looked overwhelmed. The transition from NPB to MLB, the weight of a $325 million contract and a midseason rotator cuff injury that cost him 12 weeks, all took their toll.
And yet, he posted a 3.00 ERA, 3.44 xERA and 28.5% strikeout rate across 90 innings and 18 starts, and then stabilized the Dodgers’ staff in the postseason en route to a World Series title (2-0, 3.86 ERA in 18.2 playoff IP).
Year-Two Adjustments
Now, with a full offseason of preparation and postseason experience under his belt, the 26-year-old Yamamoto looks every bit the pitcher L.A. banked on. And he’s not shying away from capturing the National League Cy Young:
“I’ve heard no Japanese pitcher has won it yet, so I’m awfully interested in it,” Yamamoto told Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. “I think that concentrating on each and every game and performing at my best is what will lead to a wonderful award like that, so I’d like to do my best every day.”
That kind of confidence, stated clearly this early in the season, says a lot.
So does the way he’s dominated both sides of the plate. Since joining MLB, Yamamoto’s been a reverse-splits machine. In 2024, he held lefties to a .193 AVG and .526 OPS. In 2025? Lefties are hitting just .105 with a .341 OPS and have 17 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. His splitter and sinker, breaking away from lefties, are carving lineups in half.
Righties aren’t exactly thriving, either: .237 AVG, 2 HR, and an 11/2 K/BB ratio in 38 ABs.
And it hasn’t come against bottom-feeders. Yamamoto has faced the Cubs (twice), plus two 2024 playoff teams in the Tigers and Phillies.
Now comes his first career start against Texas. The 2023 champs boast a lineup stacked with right-handed sluggers like Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Jake Burger, and possibly Wyatt Langford, if lifted from the IL.
He will also have to deal with deadly ex-Dodger lefties in Corey Seager and Joc Pederson. It’s Pederson who tagged Yamamoto for four hits in six at-bats as a D-Back last season.
Yamamoto Is Emerging as the Dodgers’ Ace
If Yamamoto shoves again, it’s going to be harder to ignore the obvious: in a rotation packed with stars – future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw (returning in May or June), two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (tail end of a 15-day IL stint), flamethrowers Tyler Glasnow and Dustin May, headline-stealing rookie Roki Sasaki, and Shohei Ohtani (returning in May or June) – Yamamoto is emerging as the guy.
Veteran Freddie Freeman said it best after Yamamoto’s last gem against the Cubs:
“He’s looked like that since spring training and looks like a man on a mission this year… he’s more comfortable being here in his second year… and you’re only going to get more comfortable with time.”
If this is what comfort looks like, the rest of the league should be very uncomfortable.
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