Have the Yankees Been Passed as the Favorite in the AL East?

Three teams from the American League East reached the postseason in 2025, including the New York Yankees. Judging by the offseason acquisitions and moves as the calendar is almost ready to turn to February, it’s very possible three teams from the division may make the postseason again in 2026. The biggest question, however, is this: Are the Yankees still considered one of those teams?

After working out a deal with Cody Bellinger and bringing him back into the franchise with a five-year deal, the 2026 Yankees could look very similar to the 2025 squad that went 94-68 and lost the AL East title on a tie-breaker to the Toronto Blue Jays.

If you’re a “glass half full” person, running back the same roster from a successful 2025 should lead to success once again in 2026.

However, if you take into account the lack of creative moves this offseason from the Yankees as a “glass half empty” person, there is great cause for concern in the Bronx after looking around at how the rest of the division has transformed this offseason.

Toronto, the defending AL champions, fell just two outs away from capturing its first championship since the early 1990s last October, then responded by handing Dylan Cease a record-breaking deal for the franchise and bringing in power-hitting Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto. The Blue Jays also strengthened their late-inning relief corps with the addition of Tyler Rogers.

While Bo Bichette is gone, it could be argued Toronto will be deeper in 2026 than it was in 2025.

Boston took a different approach this offseason, making blockbuster trades to acquire seasoned starter Sonny Gray and offensive force Willson Contreras from St. Louis. The Red Sox then added elite left-handed pitcher Ranger Suárez through free agency to round out their roster upgrades.

Baltimore’s front office attacked their underwhelming 2025 season (finishing at the bottom of the division at 75-87) head-on, committing five years to slugging first baseman Pete Alonso while also executing trades that brought outfielder Taylor Ward over from the Los Angeles Angels and right-handed pitcher Shane Baz from division rival Tampa Bay.

Yankees Are Rolling Dice on 2026 Roster Construction

While three division foes revamped and rebuilt, the Yankees have seemingly pinned their hopes on what happened in 2025 in several key areas reappearing once again this season.

One of those areas is the biggest name on the roster, Aaron Judge.

Judge won the AL’s Most Valuable Player honor with another spectacular season, leading all players in OPS (1.144) and OPS+ (215) among other categories. Judge has now won three of the last four AL MVP awards, but it’s the one year that he didn’t win it should be a warning sign for the Yankees.

In 2023, injuries limited Judge to just 106 games as the Yankees went 82-80 and missed the postseason. While he still hit 37 home runs and drove in 75, those numbers are much lower than the averages of the other three years when he won MVP, showing exactly how important Judge is to the Yankees’ lineup.

Judge turns 34 on April 26. While that number certainly doesn’t mean that Judge is past is his prime, it’s also clear that the Yankees’ window to win it all with their captain in the middle of the lineup is slowly closing.

Also in the outfield, Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer worth more than $22 million, but his postseason performance — a .426 OPS with just two extra-base hits in 29 at-bats — put a disappointing end to a campaign where he slugged a career-high 34 home runs.

Grisham’s strong 2025 campaign was by far his best of his seven-year MLB career. With a career average of 22 homers and 68 RBI, the 29-year-old Grisham matching those numbers would actually be less than what he produced last season, a thought that should pause any thoughts of hoping for 2025 production from this roster is a roll of the dice.

Regression for Grisham in 2026 is a real possibility, so where will those numbers come from if New York is content to try to copy this season from last?

Injuries Are Concerning

New York will begin the season without three critical contributors. Gerrit Cole won’t pitch until summer following Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodón, who delivered 18 wins with a stellar 3.09 ERA in 2025, underwent elbow surgery to remove bone fragments and won’t return until late April at best. Anthony Volpe’s shoulder surgery pushes his return into May or beyond, leaving Jose Caballero as the potential Opening Day shortstop per FanGraphs.

Without these key faces, could the Yankees scuffle to start the season? A nine-game late-April swing through Boston, Houston and Texas could provide a look at exactly where New York’s panic meter should be as the Yankees wait for the injured to return.

Will the Bullpen’s Back End Hold Up?

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made moves to build up the bullpen at last season’s trade deadline, and his dreams of a super bullpen imploded quickly.

The Yankees brought in three significant bullpen acquisitions at the trade deadline, swapping for David Bednar (Pittsburgh), Camilo Doval (San Francisco) and Jake Bird (Colorado).

Only one of the three additions made a positive impact. Bednar, who had earned two All-Star selections previously, performed admirably with a 2.19 ERA while recording 10 saves as the Yankees’ primary closer during the stretch run. His October performance was strong, yielding just one run while fanning nine batters over 6.0 postseason frames.

While Bednar was proving his worth, the other two acquisitions disappointed.

Doval posted a 4.82 ERA across 22 outings, while Bird’s Yankees stint lasted just three appearances. He surrendered seven runs (six earned) before being demoted to Triple-A, where he finished the season without returning to the majors.

As of this writing, New York’s bullpen remains essentially unchanged this winter. The front office hasn’t pursued meaningful additions while watching Devin Williams and Luke Weaver depart through free agency.

For the Yankees to contend for the AL East crown in 2026, they’ll need drastically improved performance from the Bednar-Doval-Bird trio as a collective. Again, that could be a tall ask.

Will Trust and Hope Hold Up for the Yankees in 2026?

The Yankees have essentially told their fans: “Trust us, last year will happen again.”

That’s a curious message for a franchise that won 94 games yet still finished second in the division. It’s an even stranger message when your biggest competitors just got demonstrably better while you stood pat.

New York is asking Aaron Judge to carry them at 34. They’re asking Trent Grisham to repeat a career year. They’re asking three injured stars to return seamlessly. They’re asking a disappointing bullpen to suddenly discover consistency. They’re asking a lot.

The reality is simple: The Yankees had an opportunity this offseason to build on 2025’s success. Instead, they chose to photocopy it and hope the results don’t fade. In the unforgiving AL East, where Toronto, Boston and Baltimore all upgraded aggressively, that approach feels less like confidence and more like complacency.

Come October, we’ll see whether the Yankees’ faith in their 2025 roster was visionary patience or a costly miscalculation. But one thing is certain — they’ve left themselves no margin for error in a division that punishes teams who need everything to go perfectly.